Home › MLB › San Francisco Giants @ Washington Nationals
MLB
San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants
Giants
10 - 5
Final
Washington Nationals
Nationals
Washington Nationals
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
62% Lean
62% Lean
SPREAD
Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 1.5
"Nats +129 ML +11.3 EV (48.6% model vs 43.7% implied) + MC 68% +1.5 cover despite whale steam"
EV / $100
+26.8
Win Prob
49%
Edge
-1.4%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Washington Nationals None
58%
TOTAL over 8.0
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +156.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.0
Win Prob
37.5%
ML
167 / -167

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

San Francisco Giants

Washington Nationals

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 124 / -148 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 129 / -140 -
Value Line - 102 / -125 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-310) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-131) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-102)
De-Vigged Fair Value -125 / 125 135 / -135 O/U 104 / -104
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

San Francisco Giants

J
Jose Butto
(RP) 15-day IL — Butto underwent surgery Saturday to repair an artery in his right arm, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jared Oliva
(OF) 10-day IL — Oliva underwent left hamate bone surgery Thursday in Los Angeles, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
S
Sam Hentges
(RP) 15-day IL — Hentges (knee/shoulder) struck out one in a scoreless inning during Triple-A Sacramento's 7-6 win over Tacoma on Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
H
Harrison Bader
(LF) 10-day IL — Bader has been dealing with a minor left hamstring injury since spring training, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Joel Peguero
(RP) 15-day IL — Peguero (hamstring) earned a hold and struck out two in a scoreless inning during Triple-A Sacramento's 5-3 win over Las Vegas on Tuesday.
15-Day-IL
P
Parks Harber
(3B) day-to-day — The Giants announced Wednesday that Harber has been diagnosed with a Grade 2 right hamstring strain and will require 4-to-6 weeks of recovery time, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jason Foley
(RP) 60-day IL — Foley (shoulder) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Hayden Birdsong
(RP) 60-day IL — Birdsong underwent successful UCL reconstruction surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reiver Sanmartin
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Sanmartin (hip) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
R
Rowan Wick
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Wick (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Randy Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Rodriguez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL

Washington Nationals

J
Josiah Gray
(SP) 60-day IL — Gray (elbow) remains shut down from throwing and will undergo additional testing, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Cole Henry
(RP) 15-day IL — Henry (shoulder) played catch Saturday, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
15-Day-IL
K
Ken Waldichuk
(RP) 60-day IL — The Nationals transferred Waldichuk (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
T
Trevor Williams
(SP) 60-day IL — Williams (elbow) began pitching off a mound at the Nationals' spring training complex this weekend, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jarlin Susana
(RP) day-to-day — Susana underwent surgery last week to repair a right lat tear, Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Travis Sykora
(SP) day-to-day — Sykora will undergo a UCL reconstruction on his right elbow in two weeks, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.
Day-To-Day
D
DJ Herz
(SP) 60-day IL — Herz (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Joan Adon
(RP) out — no
Out
T
Tyler Stuart
(SP) out — Stuart underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this week, Bobby Blanco of MASNSports.com reports.
Out
Box Score
FINAL
San Francisco Giants
Giants
10
-
Washington Nationals
Nationals
5
Washington Nationals 1.5
62% conf
L

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

San Francisco Giants @ Washington Nationals

+26.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Washington Nationals 62% Lean Calibrated
"Nats +129 ML +11.3 EV (48.6% model vs 43.7% implied) + MC 68% +1.5 cover despite whale steam"
49% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 49%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -1.4%
Line Movement
Current Giants -1.5 -156 / Nationals +1.5 +132
Movement No significant line movement detected.
Injury impact: Home pitchers depleted (-10.1%) more than away (-7.8%)
Nationals ML +129 offers +11.3 EV vs market-implied 43.7% (our 48.6%)
Model: 51.8% win rate | n=552 — ML/spreads profitable in leans; reduce higher tiers per historical gaps
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion delivers +4.9% edge on Nats 48.6% win prob vs market 43.7%, with MC home +0.8 margin (68% +1.5 cover). Injuries hit Nats staff harder (-10.1% vs -7.8%) but model still leans home amid low agreement. Whale extreme ($531k) and sharp (19.7% spread) on Giants contradict, capping at lean; over 8 model-destined with ~21 expected total.
SHARP MONEY
19.7% sharp edge on Giants spread + moderate ML edge, but contradicts model lean home
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Washington Nationals 1.5
+26.8 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Washington Nationals None
+11.3 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.0
+35.2 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
Washington Nationals 129
  • Bayesian posterior 48.6% home win vs market 43.7% (+4.9% edge)
SPREAD PICK
● 62%
Washington Nationals 1.5
  • MC projects home margin +0.8 (std 4.8), 68% cover +1.5 vs market 39%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 8.0
  • MC expected total ~21 vs market 8.0, pitcher injuries boost scoring
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Nats +167 offers +28.7 EV (48.2% model prob vs 37.4% line) + MC 49.8% home win despite whale fade
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