Home › NHL › Philadelphia Flyers @ New Jersey Devils
NHL
Philadelphia Flyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Flyers
5 - 1
Final
New Jersey Devils
Devils
New Jersey Devils
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers 1.25
"Flyers spread +200 has +248% EV vs Pinnacle fair -230; 54.4% sharp divergence + RLM"
EV / $100
+248.4
Win Prob
70%
Edge
+19.7%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Philadelphia Flyers None
60%
TOTAL under 5.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +125.0
Total
19.0
Edge: +13.5
Win Prob
33.6%
ML
197 / -197

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Philadelphia Flyers

New Jersey Devils

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Injury Report

Philadelphia Flyers

N
Nikita Grebenkin
(RW) out — out
Out
T
Ty Murchison
(D) out — out
Out
R
Rodrigo Abols
(C) Injured Reserve — Abols' injury is a fractured right ankle, Kevin Kurz of The Athletic reports Wednesday.
Injured Reserve

New Jersey Devils

A
Arseny Gritsyuk
(RW) out — out
Out
B
Brett Pesce
(D) out — Pesce (lower body) is questionable to return to the lineup before the end of the 2025-26 regular season, Amanda Stein of the Devils' official site reports Sunday.
Out
S
Stefan Noesen
(RW) Injured Reserve — Noesen (knee) has been ruled out for the rest of the season, Kristy Flannery of The Hockey News reports Sunday.
Injured Reserve
Z
Zack MacEwen
(RW) Injured Reserve — MacEwen had knee surgery and will be lost for the remainder of the season, Kristy Flannery of The Hockey News reports Saturday.
Injured Reserve
Box Score
FINAL
Philadelphia Flyers
Flyers
5
-
New Jersey Devils
Devils
1
Philadelphia Flyers 1.25
65% conf
W

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Philadelphia Flyers @ New Jersey Devils

+248.45 EV
per $100 wagered
Philadelphia Flyers 65% Sharp Lean
"Flyers spread +200 has +248% EV vs Pinnacle fair -230; 54.4% sharp divergence + RLM"
70% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 70%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +19.7%
Line Movement
Current NJ -125 / Flyers +105 | Spread NJ -125 (Flyers +200) | Total 5.5
Movement RLM detected on spread (public on home, line favors away)
+248% EV on Flyers spread +200 vs Pinnacle fair -230; strongest edge of analysis
Model: 49.1% win rate | n=273 — NHL 49.1% WR N=273; spreads profitable in lean tier but model losing vs Devils/Flyers
FULL ANALYSIS
Massive spread value on Flyers +200 vs Pinnacle fair -230 (69.7% cover prob, +248% EV) driven by 54.4% sharp-public divergence + RLM. MC even at 45.8% Flyers cover confirms pick'em market misprice. Devils injuries (Pesce/Gritsyuk out) compound edge; fade juiced home favorite.
SHARP MONEY
54.4% sharp edge on spread + RLM detected = strongest signal; Pinnacle fair value 69.7% Flyers cover
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Philadelphia Flyers 1.25
+248.4 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Philadelphia Flyers None
+3.2 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL under 5.5
+1.8 EV 58%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
Philadelphia Flyers 197
  • Model ML +197 offers value vs 50% true prob (breakeven 33.6%, our 50% exceeds by 16.4%)
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Philadelphia Flyers 0.0
  • Omega spread even at 0.0 with ELO projecting Devils -2.0 but Poisson dead even; pick away side on model tie
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 19.0
  • Omega total 19.0 matches exactly 19.2 expected goals; NHL variance favors under on model totals
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Model even matchup (9.6-9.6) with Flyers ML +197 value vs 50% prob, injuries cancel out
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