Home › NHL › Buffalo Sabres @ Ottawa Senators
NHL
Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo Sabres
Sabres
Ottawa Senators
Senators
Ottawa Senators
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK
52% Lean
52% Lean
SPREAD
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators -1.5
"Ottawa ML -120 (+4.4% edge): Stutzle leads scoring cats + BUF depth out vs home ice despite D injuries"
EV / $100
+1.2
Win Prob
58%
Edge
+8.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Ottawa Senators None
65%
TOTAL under 6.5
54%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Buffalo Sabres

Ottawa Senators

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Pinnacle - -116 / 103 ↑ -
Pinnacle -1.5 (206) - -
Pinnacle - - Over 6.5 (-102)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Buffalo Sabres

S
Sam Carrick
(C) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
N
Noah Ostlund
(C) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
J
Jiri Kulich
(C) Injured Reserve — Kulich (ear) has been improving but will likely miss the rest of the regular season, Paul Hamilton of WGR Sports Radio 550 reports Friday.
Injured Reserve
J
Justin Danforth
(RW) Injured Reserve — Danforth (lower body) is trending toward a post-Olympic return to action, Bill Hoppe of the Olean Times Herald reports Monday.
Injured Reserve

Ottawa Senators

J
Jake Sanderson
(D) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
C
Carter Yakemchuk
(D) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
D
Dennis Gilbert
(D) out — The Senators announced Thursday that Gilbert (upper body) will miss approximately three weeks, Julian McKenzie of The Athletic reports.
Out
T
Thomas Chabot
(D) out — Chabot had surgery on his right forearm Thursday and will be out of action for at least four weeks, Julian McKenzie of The Athletic reports.
Out
N
Nick Jensen
(D) Injured Reserve — ir
Injured Reserve
Game Preview
Buffalo Sabres @ Ottawa Senators
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (206)
Total Over 6.5
Key Injuries
Sam Carrick Day-To-Day
Noah Ostlund Day-To-Day
Jake Sanderson Day-To-Day
Carter Yakemchuk Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at puck drop

Get Daily Picks

AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Buffalo Sabres @ Ottawa Senators

+1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Ottawa Senators 52% Lean
"Ottawa ML -120 (+4.4% edge): Stutzle leads scoring cats + BUF depth out vs home ice despite D injuries"
58% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 58%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +8.0%
Line Movement
Current OTT ML -120 / BUF +100 | Spread OTT -120 | Total 6.5
Movement No movement data
Positive EV on Ottawa ML at -120; breakeven 54.5% vs our 58% model prob
Model: 43.4% win rate | n=122 — DDN 5-3 vs OTT, 3-5 vs BUF; totals consistently losing
FULL ANALYSIS
Ottawa's D is battered (Chabot/Gilbert out, 2 DTD) but home ice + Stutzle dominance (leads 3 cats) gives ML edge vs BUF depth injuries. Model sees 58% Ottawa win prob vs 54.5% implied (-120), +4.4% edge despite 43% sport record. Under 6.5 on defensive chaos projecting 5.8 goals total. Props lean overs for volume stars like Thompson/Stutzle.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Ottawa Senators -1.5
+1.2 EV 52% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Ottawa Senators None
+4.4 EV 65% 1u
TOTAL under 6.5
+1.8 EV 54% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 67%
Ottawa Senators +239
  • Model win prob 29.5% vs +239 implied 29.5% but NHL underdogs hit 45%+ historically
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Ottawa Senators 0.0
  • Ottawa home ice + ELO underdog value despite 4 D-men out
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 68%
UNDER 19.0 19.0
  • Poisson projects exactly 19.2 combined with depleted defenses on both sides
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Ottawa +239 home dog value with 4 D out but model even scores; Stutzle O1 pt +3.2 EV from injury usage
Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700