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MLB
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
Padres
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 1.36
"SD +113 ML / +1.36 spread: OMEGA 0.0 spread vs market -1.36 (+2.8 EV) w/ PIT bullpen injuries"
EV / $100
+2.1
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-3.5%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE San Diego Padres None
60%
TOTAL under 8.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +136.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +15.5
Win Prob
37.1%
ML
170 / -170

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

San Diego Padres

Pittsburgh Pirates

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Market Consensus - -125 / 113 ↑ -
Market Consensus -1.5 (164) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-109)
Fair Value Fair Value 177 / -177 -119 / 119 O/U -102 / 102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

San Diego Padres

G
Griffin Canning
(SP) 15-day IL — Canning (Achilles) will start for Double-A San Antonio on a rehab assignment Saturday, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jason Adam
(RP) 15-day IL — Adam (quadriceps) will throw a simulated game Tuesday before making back-to-back rehab appearances with Double-A San Antonio on Friday and Saturday, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Joe Musgrove
(SP) 15-day IL — Musgrove (elbow) said Thursday that he has resuemd playing catch, but he doesn't have a definitive timeline to return from the 15-day injured list, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Sung-Mun Song
(3B) 10-day IL — Song (oblique) has gone 3-for-7 with two RBI through two rehab games with Triple-A El Paso.
10-Day-IL
M
Matt Waldron
(SP) 15-day IL — Waldron (lower body) tossed three scoreless innings in a rehab start with Triple-A El Paso on Friday, allowing two hits and striking out three batters.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yu Darvish
(SP) out — The Padres placed Darvish (elbow) on the restricted list Wednesday.
Out
Y
Yuki Matsui
(RP) 15-day IL — The Padres placed Matsui (groin) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
B
Bryan Hoeing
(RP) 15-day IL — The Padres placed Hoeing (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
W
Will Wagner
(3B) 10-day IL — The Padres placed Wagner (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
J
Jhony Brito
(RP) 60-day IL — Brito (forearm) has been throwing bullpens in Padres camp, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Hunt
(C) day-to-day — Hunt is dealing with an oblique injury and has been shut down from activity, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Day-To-Day

Pittsburgh Pirates

J
Jared Triolo
(SS) 10-day IL — The Pirates placed Triolo on the 10-day injured list Sunday, retroactive to April 4, due to a patellar tendon injury in his right knee, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
10-Day-IL
O
Oddanier Mosqueda
(RP) day-to-day — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Chris Devenski
(RP) out — The Pirates reassigned Devenski (head) to minor-league camp Sunday.
Out
J
Jared Jones
(SP) 60-day IL — Pirates senior director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Monday that Jones (elbow) should be ready for game action when he's eligible to return from the 60-day injured list in late May, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Anthony Solometo
(SP) day-to-day — Solometo was pulled off his rehab assignment with Single-A Bradenton in late June after he experienced recurrent shoulder discomfort, Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
San Diego Padres @ Pittsburgh Pirates
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (164)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Griffin Canning 15-Day-IL
Jason Adam 15-Day-IL
Jared Triolo 10-Day-IL
Oddanier Mosqueda Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

San Diego Padres @ Pittsburgh Pirates

+2.1 EV
per $100 wagered
San Diego Padres 58% Lean
"SD +113 ML / +1.36 spread: OMEGA 0.0 spread vs market -1.36 (+2.8 EV) w/ PIT bullpen injuries"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -3.5%
Line Movement
Current PIT -136 / SD +113 | Total 8.5
Movement No movement data
No EV on PIT ML (breakeven 57.6% > our 46.5%); SD +113 offers +2.1 EV but model calibration shows ML leans overconfident
Model: 53.0% win rate | n=285 — MLB 151-134 (53%); leans/totals profitable at 55-62 but historically overconfident (51.5% actual)
FULL ANALYSIS
OMEGA model sees dead even matchup at 12-12 (Poisson+ELO) vs market pricing PIT -136, creating 3.5pt spread value on SD +1.36. MC confirms 46.5% PIT win despite juice. PIT bullpen decimated (Jones 60IL, Devenski out) + Padres staff intact (Vasquez 0.75 ERA). Totals unplayable (losing calibration across tiers).
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD San Diego Padres 1.36
+2.1 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE San Diego Padres None
+2.8 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL under 8.5
+1.2 EV 55%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
San Diego Padres -172
  • OMEGA blended win prob 63.2% matches -172 breakeven exactly (no edge)
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
San Diego Padres 0.0
  • OMEGA model shows even matchup at 12-12 expected; minimal edge on pick'em
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 24.0
  • Model total exactly 24.0 (combined expected 24.0); no edge on model line
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Model even matchup 12-12 expected (0.0 spread), -172 ML 0 EV vs our 63.2% prob; Pirates arms depleted but no game edge
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