Home › MLB › Houston Astros @ Colorado Rockies
MLB
Houston Astros
Houston Astros
Astros
7 - 9
Final
Colorado Rockies
Rockies
Colorado Rockies
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 0.0
"Coors model trap: OMEGA 0.0 spread/24 total vs HOU -149/+10.5 market = +15.2 EV Rockies ML"
EV / $100
+4.1
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-3.8%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Colorado Rockies None
61%
TOTAL over 10.5
64%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +149.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +13.5
Win Prob
29.7%
ML
236 / -236

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Houston Astros

Colorado Rockies

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Injury Report

Houston Astros

H
Hunter Brown
(SP) 15-day IL — Brown has been diagnosed with a Grade 2 right shoulder strain and will be shut down from throwing "for a few weeks."
15-Day-IL
C
Cody Bolton
(RP) day-to-day — Bolton is being sent for precautionary imaging after he was struck by a comebacker during Monday's start against the Rockies, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports. He didn't factor into the decision after allowing two runs on three hits and two walks while striking out five over 4.1 innings.
Day-To-Day
B
Bennett Sousa
(RP) 15-day IL — Sousa (oblique) will throw a live batting practice session next week, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
N
Nate Pearson
(RP) 15-day IL — Pearson (elbow) has progressed to throwing a live batting practice session, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hayden Wesneski
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros transferred Wesneski (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Monday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Josh Hader
(RP) 15-day IL — Hader (biceps) threw a bullpen session Friday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Brandon Walter
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros placed Walter (elbow) on the 60-day injured list.
60-Day-IL
R
Ronel Blanco
(SP) 15-day IL — The Astros placed Blanco (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday'
15-Day-IL
Z
Zach Dezenzo
(LF) 10-day IL — Astros manager Joe Espada said Sunday that Dezenzo won't be part of the Opening Day roster and will remain at extended spring training to rehab his right elbow injury, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Glenn Otto
(RP) day-to-day — The Astros reassigned Otto (shoulder) and Ray Gaither (shoulder) to minor-league camp Tuesday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day

Colorado Rockies

J
Jose Quintana
(SP) 15-day IL — Quintana (hamstring) has resumed playing catch, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Tyler Freeman
(RF) day-to-day — Freeman was scratched from the lineup for Sunday's game against the Phillies due to lower-back tightness.
Day-To-Day
C
Charlie Condon
(OF) day-to-day — The Rockies reassigned Condon to minor-league camp Thursday.
Day-To-Day
M
McCade Brown
(SP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Brown (shoulder) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
R
RJ Petit
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Petit (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Pierson Ohl
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Ohl (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Case Williams
(SP) day-to-day — Williams is currently slowed by a stress reaction in his right triceps, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Brayan Castillo
(RP) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Castillo is dealing with right lat tightness and has been shut down from throwing while undergoing treatment for the injury, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Thomas
(CF) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Thomas hasn't been participating in spring training while he recovers from offseason surgery to address a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Kris Bryant
(DH) 60-day IL — Bryant said Tuesday that the ongoing pain in his back continues to prevent him from participating in baseball activities, though he's still consulting with doctors and trainers for potential rehab options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jeff Criswell
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Criswell (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
Box Score
FINAL
Houston Astros
Astros
7
-
Colorado Rockies
Rockies
9
Colorado Rockies 0.0
58% conf
W

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Houston Astros @ Colorado Rockies

+4.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Colorado Rockies 58% Lean
"Coors model trap: OMEGA 0.0 spread/24 total vs HOU -149/+10.5 market = +15.2 EV Rockies ML"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -3.8%
Line Movement
Current HOU -149 / COL +123 / Total 10.5
Movement No movement data
ALTITUDE FACTOR (Denver): Visiting teams average -1.3 pts/game Coors Field: +35% over bias, model total 24.0 vs market 10.5
Massive +EV on Rockies ML vs -149 favorite pricing; model sees 46% win prob vs 60% breakeven
Model: 53.1% win rate | n=288 — MLB 153-135 (53.1%) N=288; vs Rockies even, vs Astros strong 11-4; reduce for missing signals
FULL ANALYSIS
OMEGA model craters market's HOU -149 with 0.0 spread and 46% Rockies win prob vs 60% breakeven—pure Coors value. Total edge massive at 24.0 projected vs 10.5 market amid +35% Coors over bias and MC 12-12 scores. Astros 1-2 road but model sees even matchup; fade visitor pricing with altitude penalty.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Colorado Rockies 0.0
+4.1 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Colorado Rockies None
+15.2 EV 61% 1u
TOTAL over 10.5
+8.7 EV 64% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 65%
Houston Astros -276
  • Model win prob 73.4% matches -276 breakeven exactly; Astros model 10W-2L
SPREAD PICK
● 63%
Houston Astros 0.0
  • ELO projects Astros -6.7 spread vs model pick'em after injuries to Rockies rotation
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
OVER 24.0
  • Model projects 24.0 combined at Coors-like venue; totals profitable in Lean tier (56%)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Astros -6.7 ELO edge vs injured Rockies (+1.2 EV spread); model 73% win prob matches -276 but juice kills value
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