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Houston Astros
Houston Astros
Astros
Athletics
Athletics
Athletics
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Athletics Athletics 0
"Athletics spread +17% sharp divergence vs juiced HOU -118, omega projects 12-12 explosion (total edge +14)"
EV / $100
+8.5
Win Prob
52%
Edge
+2.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Athletics None
64%
TOTAL over 10.0
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +118.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
28.1%
ML
256 / -256

Player Props Engine

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Houston Astros

Athletics

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Market Consensus - -101 / -109 ↑ -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-158) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 10.0 (-103)
Fair Value PIN DE-VIG -146 / 146 104 / -104 O/U 104 / -104
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Houston Astros

I
Isaac Paredes
(3B) Bereavement — Paredes is not in the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Red Sox.
bereavement
B
Bennett Sousa
(RP) 15-day IL — Sousa (oblique) will throw a live batting practice session next week, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
N
Nate Pearson
(RP) 15-day IL — Pearson (elbow) has progressed to throwing a live batting practice session, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hayden Wesneski
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros transferred Wesneski (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Monday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Enyel De Los Santos
(RP) 15-day IL — De Los Santos (knee) has tossed 2.1 scoreless innings while striking out one and allowing no hits or walks in two appearances for Triple-A Sugar Land since starting a rehab assignment Friday.
15-Day-IL
J
Josh Hader
(RP) 15-day IL — Hader (biceps) threw a bullpen session Friday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Brandon Walter
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros placed Walter (elbow) on the 60-day injured list.
60-Day-IL
R
Ronel Blanco
(SP) 15-day IL — The Astros placed Blanco (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday'
15-Day-IL
Z
Zach Dezenzo
(LF) 10-day IL — Astros manager Joe Espada said Sunday that Dezenzo won't be part of the Opening Day roster and will remain at extended spring training to rehab his right elbow injury, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Glenn Otto
(RP) day-to-day — The Astros reassigned Otto (shoulder) and Ray Gaither (shoulder) to minor-league camp Tuesday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day

Athletics

G
Gunnar Hoglund
(SP) 15-day IL — The Athletics announced Thursday that Hoglund has been diagnosed with a lumbar spine strain.
15-Day-IL
Game Preview
Houston Astros @ Athletics
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 1.5 (-158)
Total Over 10.0
Key Injuries
Isaac Paredes bereavement
Bennett Sousa 15-Day-IL
Gunnar Hoglund 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Houston Astros @ Athletics

+8.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Athletics 65% Sharp Lean
"Athletics spread +17% sharp divergence vs juiced HOU -118, omega projects 12-12 explosion (total edge +14)"
52% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 52%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +2.0%
Line Movement
Current HOU -118 / Athletics +100 (est) / Total 10.0
Movement No movement data
Modest ML edge on Athletics at -102 vs fair -104; strongest EV on Athletics spread +100 equiv (+42% at Bovada outlier)
Model: 52.8% win rate | n=218 — ML profitable vs Astros (7-2); even vs Athletics (6-6); reduce conf due to tier overconfidence
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp 17% spread divergence on Athletics + omega_model dead even at 12-12 expected vs market HOU -118 pricing. Houston bullpen gutted (Hader/Sousa/De Los Santos IL) while Springs (2.38 ERA) gives OAK starter edge. +42% EV on Athletics spread at Bovada outlier; fade retail juice.
SHARP MONEY
17.0% spread divergence sharp on Athletics side; +42% EV vs Bovada spread pricing despite retail juice
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Athletics 0
+8.5 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Athletics None
+3.2 EV 64% 1u
TOTAL over 10.0
+1.8 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 67%
Houston Astros -125
  • 62% model prob exceeds -125 breakeven 55.6% by 6.4%; Brown vastly superior to Severino
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Houston Astros -1.5
  • Hunter Brown 0.84 ERA dominates vs Luis Severino 6.48 ERA in early season spot
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
OVER 10.0
  • Severino 6.48 ERA + Brown capable of 4+ runs allowed = combined 10+ runs projection
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Brown 0.84 ERA crushes Severino 6.48; Astros -1.5 +4.8 EV on pitcher mismatch
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