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Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
Rays
Boston Red Sox
Sox
Boston Red Sox
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +51.0% EV
54% Lean
54% Lean
MONEYLINE
Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays None
"Rays ML +102: +8.7pp Bayesian edge (53.8% posterior vs 45% implied), omega spread 0.0 vs BOS -1.5"
EV / $100
+8.7
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+3.8%
Size
0.5u
SPREAD Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
55%
TOTAL over 8.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 13.4% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$667851 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (82% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 268 trades Kalshi: 305 trades Largest: $78000
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +122.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
32.2%
ML
210 / -210

Player Props Engine

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Tampa Bay Rays

Boston Red Sox

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -122 / 102 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -115 / 105 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (340) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (177) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-100)
De-Vigged Fair Value 191 / -191 -110 / 110 O/U 107 / -107
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Tampa Bay Rays

G
Gavin Lux
(LF) 10-day IL — Lux (shoulder/ankle) is tracking toward a return during the Rays' series in Boston this weekend, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
10-Day-IL
M
Mason Englert
(RP) 15-day IL — Englert (forearm) could start Friday in Boston in place of the injured Steven Matz (elbow), Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
15-Day-IL
M
Michael Grove
(RP) 60-day IL — Grove (shoulder) is scheduled to face hitters this weekend, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
S
Steven Matz
(SP) 15-day IL — Matz's (elbow) stint on the 15-day injured list is not expected to last long, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Joe Boyle
(SP) 15-day IL — Boyle (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Durham on Wednesday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Ryan Pepiot
(SP) 60-day IL — Pepiot will undergo surgery on his right hip May 13 and miss the rest of the 2026 season, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Edwin Uceta
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rays transferred Uceta (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
60-Day-IL
T
TJ Nichols
(P) day-to-day — Double-A Montgomery placed Nichols on its 7-day injured list April 7 due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
T
Tre' Morgan
(1B) day-to-day — Triple-A Durham activated Morgan (quadricep) from its 7-day injured list Tuesday.
Day-To-Day
A
Alfredo Zarraga
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
K
Keyshawn Askew
(RP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
A
Austin Vernon
(RP) day-to-day — The Rays have shut Vernon down from throwing due to right elbow soreness, per MLB.com.
Day-To-Day
T
Ty Johnson
(SP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
S
Steven Wilson
(RP) 60-day IL — Wilson said Sunday that his lower back has responded well to an injection, and he hopes to be ready to make his season debut shortly after Opening Day, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
J
John Rooney
(RP) day-to-day — The Rays signed Rooney (elbow) to a minor-league contract Nov. 15.
Day-To-Day
L
Logan Driscoll
(C) day-to-day — The Rays released Driscoll (ankle) on Friday, Ryan Bass of FanDuel Sports Network Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Manuel Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — Rodriguez will have right elbow surgery Aug. 8 to address a flexor tendon repair, and his UCL will be evaluated during the surgery to determine if any additional procedures are needed, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL

Boston Red Sox

R
Roman Anthony
(LF) day-to-day — Anthony was diagnosed with a sprained right wrist after undergoing an MRI on Tuesday and may not require a trip to the injured list, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Justin Slaten
(RP) 15-day IL — Slaten (oblique) allowed one hit and struck out two over a scoreless inning for Double-A Portland on Sunday.
15-Day-IL
D
Danny Coulombe
(RP) 15-day IL — no
15-Day-IL
P
Patrick Sandoval
(SP) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Sandoval (biceps/elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Ranger Suarez
(SP) day-to-day — Suarez (hamstring) is hopeful he will be ready to go for his next scheduled start, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports.
Day-To-Day
G
Garrett Crochet
(SP) 15-day IL — Crochet (shoulder) was able to play catch Sunday for the first time since landing on the injured list Wednesday, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Triston Casas
(1B) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Casas (abdomen/knee) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kutter Crawford
(SP) 15-day IL — Crawford has been diagnosed with inflammation in his right elbow following an MRI, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Johan Oviedo
(SP) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Oviedo (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brendan Rodgers
(2B) out — Rodgers (shoulder) re-signed Friday with the Red Sox on a two-year, minor-league contract, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports.
Out
H
Hobie Harris
(RP) day-to-day — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Monday that Harris has been shut down due to forearm tightness, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Romy Gonzalez
(1B) 60-day IL — Gonzalez will have his left shoulder injury evaluated Tuesday to determine whether he needs to undergo surgery, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Houck
(SP) 60-day IL — Houck (elbow) began a throwing program Monday with 25 throws from 45 feet, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (340)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Gavin Lux 10-Day-IL
Mason Englert 15-Day-IL
Roman Anthony Day-To-Day
Justin Slaten 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox

+8.7 EV
per $100 wagered
Tampa Bay Rays 54% Lean
"Rays ML +102: +8.7pp Bayesian edge (53.8% posterior vs 45% implied), omega spread 0.0 vs BOS -1.5"
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +3.8%
Line Movement
Current BOS -1.5 -122 / TB +1.5 +102 (est), ML BOS -122 / TB +102, Total 8.5
Movement No significant movement
+8.7pp calibrated edge on Rays ML vs market-implied 45.1%; totals show +15.2pp over edge but capped by historical total WR 47.8%
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion gives Rays ML 53.8% posterior vs 45.1% market (+8.7pp edge), backed by omega ML -210 away and MC 48.2% BOS win. Total market 8.5 lags omega 22.5 proj (over posterior 65.2%). Whales extreme on BOS ($665k) contradicts but doesn't erase quant edge; degraded data (no pitchers) caps at Lean.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Rays None
+8.7 EV 54% 0.5u
SPREAD Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
+4.2 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.5
+15.2 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 54%
Tampa Bay Rays 102
  • Bayesian posterior 53.8% Rays win vs market 45.1% implied (+8.7pp edge from Poisson+ELO fusion)
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
  • Omega independent spread 0.0 vs market BOS -1.5; MC projected margin +0.3 favors Rays +1.5 cover at 55%+
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 8.5
  • Bayesian total posterior 65.2% over vs 50% implied (+15.2pp); omega total 22.5 and MC proj 19.7 vs market 8.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Red Sox ML +242: 43% posterior vs 29% Omega implied (+14pp), MC 51% win + extreme $597k whales
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