Home › MLB › Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Guardians
MLB
Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners
Mariners
Cleveland Guardians
Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.0% EV ALIGNED
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 1.5
"Guardians +1.5 has +3.9pp probability edge and sharp confirmation; small play due to data limitations."
EV / $100
+2.9
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+3.9%
Size
0.5u
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.0% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$711907 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (79% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 383 trades Kalshi: 23 trades Largest: $15681
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: -1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +15.0
Win Prob
39.3%
ML
154 / -154

Player Props Engine

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Seattle Mariners

Cleveland Guardians

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -114 / -106 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -109 / -101 -
Value Line - -115 / -108 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (400) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (194) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-103)
De-Vigged Fair Value 211 / -211 -104 / 104 O/U 104 / -104
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Seattle Mariners

C
Carlos Vargas
(RP) 60-day IL — Mariners general manager Justin Hollander said Tuesday that Vargas (lat) recently began a throwing program and could be ready to return from the 60-day injured list around the Aug. 3 trade deadline, Zac Hereth of 710 AM Seattle Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
W
Will Wilson
(3B) 60-day IL — Wilson (thumb) has gone 3-for-9 with two RBI and a 1:2 BB:K in his first three rehab games between High-A Everett and Triple-A Tacoma.
60-Day-IL
C
Cooper Criswell
(RP) 15-day IL — Criswell was diagnosed with a Grade 1-plus pectoral strain Tuesday, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Brendan Donovan
(3B) 10-day IL — Donovan (groin) began a running progression Tuesday, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
M
Matt Brash
(RP) 15-day IL — General manager Justin Hollander said Tuesday that Brash was diagnosed with a Grade 1 strain in his right lat, Shannon Drayer of SeattleSports.com reports.
15-Day-IL
D
Dane Dunning
(RP) day-to-day — The Mariners signed Dunning to a minor-league contract Thursday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
Day-To-Day
L
Logan Evans
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mariners placed Evans (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL

Cleveland Guardians

C
Chase DeLauter
(RF) 10-day IL — Guardians manager Stephen Vogt said Monday that the team hopes DeLauter (rib) will be ready to return during its June 26-July 5 homestand, Tim Stebbins of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Tanner Burns
(SP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
J
Jose Ramirez
(3B) 10-day IL — Ramirez underwent surgery to address the hamate bone fracture in his left hand Tuesday and is expected to be sidelined 5-to-7 weeks, Zack Meisel of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Angel Martinez
(LF) 10-day IL — Martinez (foot) will be placed on the 10-day injured list Tuesday, reports Cade Cracas of Sports Illustrated.
10-Day-IL
C
Carlos Hernandez
(RP) day-to-day — Hernandez (shoulder) began his rehab assignment with Triple-A Omaha on Friday.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Guardians
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (400)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Carlos Vargas 60-Day-IL
Will Wilson 60-Day-IL
Chase DeLauter 10-Day-IL
Tanner Burns Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Guardians

+2.9 EV
per $100 wagered
Cleveland Guardians 55% Lean
"Guardians +1.5 has +3.9pp probability edge and sharp confirmation; small play due to data limitations."
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +3.9%
Line Movement
Current ML: Home -114, Away -105; Total 7.5; Spread: Home +1.5
Movement No significant movement
Slight edge of 2.9% per $100 on home spread
FULL ANALYSIS
The Bayesian fusion model gives home +1.5 a 53.9% win probability against a 50% market line, yielding a 2.9% EV per $100. This edge is reinforced by strong sharp money (14% divergence) and extreme whale volume ($711K) favoring the Guardians. However, degraded data quality (67%) limits the confidence to a lean. The run line offers a small but positive expected value.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge 14.0% on spread favoring home; whale consensus 79% home with $711K volume
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Cleveland Guardians 1.5
+2.9 EV 55% 0.5u
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Cleveland Guardians 1.5
  • Bayesian posterior shows +3.9pp edge on home +1.5, supported by sharp money (14% edge) and whale signal ($711K volume)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Over 7.5 at 65.2% Bayesian probability (+15.2pp edge) is the top play, but data quality concerns warrant caution.
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