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MLB
Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals
Royals
Cleveland Guardians
Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +58.9% EV
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 0
"CLE spread +305 at Bovada = +57.8% EV on 19.7% sharp divergence vs retail -460"
EV / $100
+57.8
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-3.9%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Cleveland Guardians None
52%
TOTAL under 7.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 19.4% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$584 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (89% of whale volume).
Whales: home Kalshi: 15 trades Largest: $156
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +118.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.5
Win Prob
32.8%
ML
205 / -205

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Kansas City Royals

Cleveland Guardians

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 101 / -121 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 105 / -116 -
Value Line - 106 / -132 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-470) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-171) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.0 (-114)
De-Vigged Fair Value -161 / 161 110 / -110 O/U -106 / 106
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Kansas City Royals

J
James McArthur
(RP) 15-day IL — McArthur (elbow) is expected to resume a throwing program Monday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Stephen Kolek
(SP) 15-day IL — Kolek (oblique) threw three innings and 49 pitches Thursday during a simulated game at extended spring training, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Bailey Falter
(RP) 15-day IL — Falter allowed no hits or walks across three scoreless innings in Tuesday's Cactus League loss to the Dodgers. He struck out five.
15-Day-IL
C
Carlos Estevez
(RP) 15-day IL — The Royals placed Estevez (foot) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
A
Alec Marsh
(SP) 60-day IL — The Royals placed Marsh (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL

Cleveland Guardians

G
Gabriel Arias
(SS) 10-day IL — no
10-Day-IL
G
George Valera
(RF) 10-day IL — Valera (calf) is building up to physically handle playing multiple days per week, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
H
Hunter Gaddis
(RP) 15-day IL — Gaddis (forearm) allowed one hit and struck out one over a scoreless inning for Triple-A Columbus on Tuesday.
15-Day-IL
A
Andrew Walters
(RP) 15-day IL — The Guardians placed Walters (lat) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
C
Carlos Hernandez
(RP) out — Hernandez is making progress but is still in the midst of a rehab program after suffering fractures to his left arm and right leg during a Jan. 11 car accident in Venezuela, SI.com reports.
Out
Game Preview
Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-470)
Total Over 7.0
Key Injuries
James McArthur 15-Day-IL
Stephen Kolek 15-Day-IL
Gabriel Arias 10-Day-IL
George Valera 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians

+57.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Cleveland Guardians 65% Sharp Lean
"CLE spread +305 at Bovada = +57.8% EV on 19.7% sharp divergence vs retail -460"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -3.9%
Line Movement
Current KC -118 ML / Total 7.5
Movement No movement data
No positive EV on KC ML at -118 vs MC 46.1% away win prob
Model: 52.3% win rate | n=352 — MLB 184-168 (N=352); lean spreads profitable but ML losing; reduce all confidence
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money hammers CLE spread (+19.7% divergence, Bovada +305 = +57.8% EV vs fair 39%) in pick'em spot where MC shows dead even (46.1% away cover). Omega total 24.0 vs market 7.5 screams model error—ignore totals (losing tier-wide). Recent H2H 4/6 wins but mixed sides; bullpen injuries both ways but sharp action overrides.
SHARP MONEY
19.7% sharp edge on spread favoring away (CLE) + Bovada away spread +57.8% EV
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Cleveland Guardians 0
+57.8 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Cleveland Guardians None
-6.5 EV 52%
TOTAL under 7.5
+1.2 EV 58%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Kansas City Royals 199
  • MC sims show 46.1% away win probability vs model implied 33.4% creating underdog value
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Cleveland Guardians 0.0
  • OMEGA expected score 12.0-12.0 but MC sims show Guardians 46.1% cover rate on even line with ELO home edge
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 24.0
  • MC sims show 48.5% under 24.0 despite high expected total from early season scoring inflation
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Model dead even 12-12 but MC 48.5% under 24 + Royals ML value at +199 vs 46% sim win rate
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