MLB
Detroit Tigers
Tigers
Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies
Player Props Engine
Powered by xAIDetroit Tigers
Philadelphia Phillies
Injury Report
Detroit Tigers
Scott Effross
(RP)
day-to-day — The Tigers reassigned Effross (oblique) to minor-league camp Wednesday, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
Day-To-Day
Jake Rogers
(C)
day-to-day — The Tigers and Rogers avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $3.05 million contract Friday, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
Jackson Jobe
(SP)
60-day IL — Jobe (elbow) is scheduled to play catch out to 120 feet three times this week, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
60-Day-IL
Beau Brieske
(RP)
out — Brieske (ribcage) worked around a walk to toss a scoreless inning of relief in Friday's 7-5 loss to the Pirates in Grapefruit League play.
Out
Phil Bickford
(RP)
day-to-day — Bickford was shut down from throwing Tuesday due to a triceps strain, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
Day-To-Day
Trey Sweeney
(SS)
day-to-day — The Tigers announced Friday that Sweeney (shoulder) has started his throwing program, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
Day-To-Day
Bailey Horn
(RP)
out — Horn (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
Out
Troy Melton
(RP)
60-day IL — The Tigers announced Friday that Melton (elbow) has started his throwing program, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
60-Day-IL
Sawyer Gipson-Long
(RP)
day-to-day — Gipson-Long (oblique) threw a bullpen session Tuesday and appears to be on track for the start of the regular season, MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Dugan Darnell
(RP)
day-to-day — The Tigers announced Sunday that Darnell (hip) has been playing catch five times a week and is also taking part in a running progression, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
Josue Briceno
(C)
out — Briceno said Friday that he expects to be sidelined a few months after having surgery Wednesday to repair a tendon in his right wrist, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Out
Tyler Owens
(SP)
day-to-day — Owens (hip) is scheduled to throw his first bullpen session of spring training Tuesday, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
Troy Watson
(SP)
out — Watson is scheduled to begin a throwing program Monday as he works his way back from arthroscopic right elbow surgery, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Out
Reese Olson
(SP)
60-day IL — The Tigers placed Olson on the 60-day injured list Tuesday following a right shoulder labral repair Feb. 2 that will result in him missing the 2026 season.
60-Day-IL
Philadelphia Phillies
Zack Wheeler
(SP)
out — Wheeler (shoulder) will pitch in a minor-league game Monday, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.
Out
Dylan Moore
(2B)
day-to-day — Moore (foot) exercised the opt-out clause in his minor-league contract Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
Aidan Miller
(SS)
out — Miller (back) is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, Charlotte Varnes of The Athletic reports.
Out
Johan Rojas
(CF)
Suspension — MLB announced Monday that Rojas has been suspended 80 games for violating the league's policy against performance-enhancing drugs, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
suspension
Michael Mercado
(RP)
day-to-day — The Phillies reassigned Mercado (shoulder) to minor-league camp Thursday, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Keaton Anthony
(1B)
out
Out
Max Lazar
(RP)
day-to-day — Phillies manager Rob Thomson said Tuesday that Lazar is dealing with a "mild" oblique injury and is returning to big-league camp to be evaluated, Jayson Stark of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
Mark Kolozsvary
(C)
day-to-day — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
Daniel Robert
(RP)
day-to-day — The Phillies announced Wednesday that Robert will be delayed at the start of spring training due to a cardiovascular issue, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
Christian McGowan
(RP)
out — McGowan will miss the remainder of the season following Tommy John surgery, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
Out
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Philadelphia Phillies
+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Philadelphia Phillies
68%
TOSS-UP
"Phillies ML -140 model fair: Luzardo 13K edge + home opener vs Tigers 4 injured arms = +3.2 EV"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
62%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+12.0%
Line Movement
Open
N/A - early season game
Current
N/A - no books open yet
Movement
N/A
Early season opener: home teams 54% ML (N>500)
Multiple day-to-day injuries both sides: no major impact yet
+3.2 EV on Phillies ML at fair -140; home dominance + Luzardo edge vs Tigers bullpen injuries
FULL ANALYSIS
Phillies get early edge with Luzardo's 13K/3W leading into home opener vs Tigers missing 4 pen arms day-to-day. March temps under 60F project +8% under bias on 8.0 total. Model sees 62% Phillies ML at -140 fair with 3.2 EV before lines steam home.
Kelly Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
58%
Philadelphia Phillies -125
- Home opener + Luzardo rotation anchor vs Tigers weak SP projection
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Phillies home opener + Luzardo dominance vs Tigers rebuild SP = +6.8 EV at -125; fade the unpriced talent gap
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