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Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos
Broncos
San Francisco 49ers
49ers
San Francisco 49ers
Full Game Analysis
NFL
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.0% EV LATE TO MARKET
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
San Francisco 49ers San Francisco 49ers -3.0
"49ers -3.0 vs OMEGA -20.0: massive model edge, take the spread and over."
EV / $100
+6.2
Win Prob
90%
Edge
+30.3%
Size
1.5u
MONEYLINE San Francisco 49ers None
65%
TOTAL over 47.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 10.3% divergence on spread with strong signal. RLM detected on spread.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$484750 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong away consensus (75% of whale volume).
Whales: away Polymarket: 92 trades Kalshi: 2 trades Largest: $148000
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
-20.0
Edge: -17.0
Total
49.5
Edge: +2.0
Win Prob
90.0%
ML
-899 / 899
⚠
Key Number Alert
KEY NUMBER: Spread at -3.0 — 14.8% of NFL games land on 3. Buying the half point is worth ~7.4% win probability. Pay up to -125 for the buy. OMEGA line (-20.0) disagrees by 17.0 pts — added value in the half-point buy.

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Denver Broncos

San Francisco 49ers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -145 / 125 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -143 / 127 -
Sharp Action Best Line -7.5 (210) - -
Market Consensus -2.5 (-113) ↓ - -
Value Line -2.5 (-114) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 48.5 (-107)
De-Vigged Fair Value -106 / 106 -135 / 135 O/U -100 / -100
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Denver Broncos

A
Adam Prentice
(FB) active — The Broncos signed Prentice from their practice squad to their 53-man roster Saturday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.
Active
D
Dondrea Tillman
(LB) out — Tillman (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the 49ers.
Out
A
Alex Singleton
(LB) active — Singleton finished Sunday's 30-26 win over the Rams with eight tackles (five solo).
Active
B
Brandon Jones
(S) active — Jones posted 12 tackles (10 solo) and one pass defense during the Broncos' 30-26 win over the Rams on Sunday.
Active
T
Talanoa Hufanga
(S) active — Hufanga recorded five tackles (two solo), including 1.0 sacks and three pass defenses (one interception and a pick-six) during the Broncos' 30-26 win over the Rams in Week 3.
Active
M
Marvin Mims Jr.
(WR) active — Mims (foot) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice.
Active
J
Jaylen Waddle
(WR) active — Waddle (leg) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Parker Gabriel of The Denver Post reports.
Active
E
Evan Engram
(TE) active — Engram failed to haul in his two targets during the Broncos' 30-26 win over the Rams on Sunday.
Active
P
Pat Bryant
(WR) active — Bryant recorded two receptions for 44 yards and a touchdown on two targets in Sunday's 30-26 win over the Rams. He also scored on a two-point conversion.
Active
W
Wil Lutz
(PK) active — Lutz missed his one field-goal attempt and went 2-for-2 on PATs in Sunday's 30-26 win over the Rams.
Active
D
Dallen Bentley
(TE) active
Active
S
Sam Ehlinger
(QB) active
Active
K
Kage Casey
(OT) active
Active
T
Tyler Onyedim
(DT) active
Active
S
Sai'vion Jones
(DE) active
Active
C
Courtland Sutton
(WR) active — Sutton caught three of seven targets for 46 yards in Sunday's 30-26 win over the Rams.
Active
J
J.K. Dobbins
(RB) active — Dobbins rushed 17 times for 49 yards while catching one of two targets for four yards in Sunday's 30-26 win over the Rams.
Active
R
RJ Harvey
(RB) active — Harvey (hamstring) rushed twice for six yards while catching six of seven targets for 41 yards in Sunday's 30-26 win over the Rams.
Active
B
Bo Nix
(QB) active — Nix completed 17 of 34 passes for 186 yards, two touchdowns and one interception in Sunday's 30-26 win over the Rams. He also rushed four times for seven yards and a touchdown in addition to throwing two successful two-point conversions.
Active
J
Jonah Coleman
(RB) Injured Reserve — Coleman (ankle) is being placed on injured reserve Saturday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
Injured Reserve
T
Troy Franklin
(WR) active — Franklin caught one of two targets for 27 yards in Sunday's 20-13 win over the Jaguars.
Active
N
Nate Adkins
(TE) active — Adkins caught all three of his targets for 32 yards and a touchdown while rushing once for six yards in Sunday's 20-13 win over the Jaguars.
Active
T
Tyler Badie
(RB) active — Badie rushed one time for one yard in Denver's 20-13 win over the Jaguars on Sunday. He added two catches for 28 yards on three targets.
Active
J
Jordan Jackson
(DT) active
Active
Z
Zach Allen
(DE) active — Allen recorded five tackles (three solo) including 2.0 sacks during Monday's 31-10 loss at Kansas City.
Active

San Francisco 49ers

M
Malik Turner
(WR) active — The 49ers elevated Turner from their practice squad to their active roster Saturday.
Active
T
Trent Williams
(OT) active — Williams (neck) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Broncos.
Active
R
Romello Height
(DE) active — Height (hand) does not carry an injury designation for Sunday's game against Denver.
Active
D
Dre Greenlaw
(LB) questionable — Greenlaw (quadriceps) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Denver.
Questionable
J
Jaden Dugger
(LB) questionable — questionable
Questionable
C
Christian Kirk
(WR) Injured Reserve — Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Friday that the 49ers could open Kirk's (calf) practice window to return from injured reserve in two weeks, Matt Barrows of The Athletic reports.
Injured Reserve
M
Mike Evans
(WR) questionable — Coach Kyle Shanahan said Friday that Evans (ribs) will be a game-time decision for Sunday's contest against the Broncos, Vic Tafur of The Athletic reports.
Questionable
B
Brandin Cooks
(WR) active — The 49ers signed Cooks from the practice squad to the active roster Thursday, Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com reports.
Active
G
Gracen Halton
(DT) active — Halton (ankle) was not listed on Wednesday's practice report, Vic Tafur of The Athletic reports.
Active
M
Mykel Williams
(DE) out — The 49ers opened Williams' (knee) 21-day practice window Wednesday to return from the reserve/PUP list, Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
Out
K
Keion White
(DE) questionable — questionable
Questionable
R
Renardo Green
(CB) active — Green recorded 13 tackles (seven solo) and one pass breakup in Sunday's 36-30 win over the Cardinals.
Active
F
Fred Warner
(LB) active — Warner recorded 17 tackles (eight solo) in Sunday's win over Arizona.
Active
K
Kaelon Black
(RB) active — Black turned four carries into 17 yards and failed to haul in his lone target during the 49ers' 36-30 win over the Cardinals on Sunday.
Active
J
Jacob Cowing
(WR) active — Cowing failed to corral either of his two targets while playing 17 of the 49ers' 54 snaps on offense in Sunday's 36-30 win over the Cardinals.
Active
J
Jordan Watkins
(WR) active — Watkins recorded two receptions for 60 yards on two targets in Sunday's 36-30 win over the Cardinals.
Active
J
James Thompson Jr.
(DT) out — Thompson (ankle) won't play in San Francisco's Week 4 matchup versus the Broncos, Jennifer Lee Chan of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
Out
N
Nick Bosa
(DE) out — Coach Kyle Shanahan said Monday that Bosa (calf) won't play this coming Sunday against the Broncos, Cam Inman of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
Out
T
Tatum Bethune
(LB) active
Active
E
Enrique Cruz Jr.
(OT) active
Active
E
Ephesians Prysock
(CB) active
Active
K
Kurtis Rourke
(QB) active
Active
E
Eddy Pineiro
(PK) active — Pineiro connected on a 57-yard field-goal try and went three-of-five on extra-point attempts in Sunday's 36-30 win over the Cardinals.
Active
D
Deebo Samuel Sr.
(WR) active — Samuel turned two carries into 14 yards and scored an 80-yard touchdown during Sunday's 36-30 win over Arizona.
Active
G
George Kittle
(TE) active — Kittle brought in six of seven targets for 82 yards and two touchdowns in the 49ers' 36-30 win over the Cardinals on Sunday.
Active
Game Preview
Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers
until kickoff
Current Line
Spread -7.5 (210)
Total Over 48.5
Key Injuries
Adam Prentice Active
Dondrea Tillman Out
Malik Turner Active
Trent Williams Active
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers

+6.2 EV
per $100 wagered
San Francisco 49ers 65% Sharp Lean
"49ers -3.0 vs OMEGA -20.0: massive model edge, take the spread and over."
90% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 90%
Book Implied 60%
Edge +30.3%
Line Movement
Open -3.0
Current -3.0
Movement No movement from opening -3.0
49ers have key injuries (Kirk, Evans, Greenlaw, White) but still project as dominant Broncos missing Cooper and Gargiulo on defense 49ers are 3-0 at home, Broncos 0-1 on the road
Massive positive EV on the 49ers moneyline, but the -148 price is still too rich for a 90% probability; the spread is the better value.
FULL ANALYSIS
The 49ers are a dominant home team with a 3-0 record, while the Broncos are 0-1 on the road. OMEGA's independent line projects a 20-point blowout, far exceeding the market's 3-point spread. The 49ers' offense, led by Purdy and McCaffrey, should exploit a Broncos defense missing key players. Despite injury concerns, the 49ers' edge is clear.
SHARP MONEY
OMEGA line at -20.0 vs market -3.0 indicates a massive discrepancy; sharp money would be on the 49ers.
Recommended Sizing
1.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD San Francisco 49ers -3.0
+6.2 EV 65% 1.5u
MONEYLINE San Francisco 49ers None
+50.0 EV 65% 1u
TOTAL over 47.5
+2.8 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 65%
San Francisco 49ers -148
  • OMEGA model gives 90% win probability vs 59.7% implied by -148 odds
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
San Francisco 49ers -3.0
  • OMEGA independent line projects a 20-point win, far exceeding the 3-point market spread
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 47.5
  • OMEGA total of 49.5 and decomposed rating of 50.9 both exceed the market 47.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
49ers -3.0 vs OMEGA -20.0: massive model edge, take the spread and over.
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