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New York Rangers
New York Rangers
Rangers
Toronto Maple Leafs
Leafs
Toronto Maple Leafs
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK
67% Sharp Lean
67% Sharp Lean
MONEYLINE
New York Rangers New York Rangers
"Rangers ML -115 (+4.2EV): Matthews out = Leafs -0.45 xG/60, NYR 58% model prob"
EV / $100
+4.2
Win Prob
58%
Edge
+8.0%
Size
1u
SPREAD New York Rangers -0.5
64%
TOTAL Toronto Maple Leafs — Under 6.5
69%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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New York Rangers

Toronto Maple Leafs

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Bovada Best Line - 100 / -120 ↑ -
Pinnacle - 104 / -117 -
Bovada Best Line 2.5 (-500) - -
Pinnacle 1.5 (-249) ↓ - -
Bovada Best Line - - Over 2.5 (-170)
Pinnacle - - Over 6.0 (-119)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Rangers

J
Jonathan Quick
(G) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
M
Matt Rempe
(C) Injured Reserve — Rempe (thumb) probably won't be ready to return before the end of the 2025-26 regular season, according to Vince Z. Mercogliano of The Athletic on Monday.
Injured Reserve
U
Urho Vaakanainen
(D) out — out
Out
N
Noah Laba
(C) out — out
Out

Toronto Maple Leafs

A
Auston Matthews
(C) out — Matthews underwent successful MCL knee repair surgery Thursday.
Out
C
Chris Tanev
(D) Injured Reserve — Tanev underwent core muscle surgery Wednesday and will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 campaign.
Injured Reserve
Game Preview
New York Rangers @ Toronto Maple Leafs
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread 2.5 (-500)
Total Over 2.5
Key Injuries
Jonathan Quick Day-To-Day
Matt Rempe Injured Reserve
Auston Matthews Out
Chris Tanev Injured Reserve
Analysis starts at puck drop

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Rangers @ Toronto Maple Leafs

+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
New York Rangers 67% Sharp Lean
"Rangers ML -115 (+4.2EV): Matthews out = Leafs -0.45 xG/60, NYR 58% model prob"
58% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 58%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +8.0%
Line Movement
Current NYR -115 ML / TOR -105 ML / O/U 6.5
Movement No movement data available
NYR ML +EV at -115 despite Toronto's key injuries
Model: 40.0% win rate | n=20 — Based on N=20 graded NHL outcomes; reduce confidence on all picks
FULL ANALYSIS
Matthews out craters Toronto's 5v5 scoring (model -0.45 xG/60), Rangers get 58% win prob at -115 ML (+4.2EV). Total projects 5.8 with both sides missing depth (Tanev IR, Ranger injuries). Zibanejad over 0.5pts hits 60% last 10 when Toronto PK ranks bottom-10.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE New York Rangers
+4.2 EV 67% 1u
SPREAD New York Rangers -0.5
+3.1 EV 64% 0.5u
TOTAL Toronto Maple Leafs — Under 6.5
+5.8 EV 69% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 67%
New York Rangers -125
  • Leafs missing Auston Matthews (team leader in goals) projects -0.9 goals for Toronto
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
New York Rangers
  • Model expected margin 0.9 goals with Matthews out for Leafs
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS & NEW YORK RANGERS UNDER 5.5 5.5
  • Matthews out drops Toronto offense -18% (historical superstar impact); model total 5.7 but vig-adjusted
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Rangers ML -125 (+4.2 EV): Matthews OUT tanks Leafs -0.9 goals, model sees 57% win prob
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