Home › MLB › Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers
MLB
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbac
Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.2% EV
63% Sharp Lean
63% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers -1.5
"Over 8.5 +15.2pp Bayesian edge (65% posterior), MC 20.6 exp vs 8.5 line +24 EV"
EV / $100
+4.2
Win Prob
55%
Edge
+5.3%
Size
1.0u
MONEYLINE Milwaukee Brewers None
55%
TOTAL over 8.5
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 13.5% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$409595 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (76% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 167 trades Kalshi: 14 trades Largest: $48108
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +120.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
40.8%
ML
145 / -145

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Arizona Diamondbacks

Milwaukee Brewers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -122 / 102 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -117 / 106 -
Value Line - -118 / -105 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (330) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (172) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-106)
De-Vigged Fair Value 186 / -186 -112 / 112 O/U 101 / -101
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Arizona Diamondbacks

G
Geraldo Perdomo
(SS) day-to-day — Perdomo (ankle) is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Brewers.
Day-To-Day
Z
Zac Gallen
(SP) day-to-day — Manager Torey Lovullo said Sunday that Gallen (shoulder) was feeling better, and the club is "encouraged" the right-hander will make his next turn through the rotation, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.
Day-To-Day
G
Gabriel Moreno
(C) 10-day IL — Moreno (oblique) is expected to rejoin the Diamondbacks during the series against the Cubs that begins Friday, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Tyler Locklear
(1B) 10-day IL — Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo said Thursday that Locklear (elbow) is taking live at-bats and "trending in a positive direction," Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Corbin Burnes
(SP) 60-day IL — Burnes (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, Jose M. Romero of the Arizona Republic reports.
60-Day-IL
A
A.J. Puk
(RP) 60-day IL — Puk (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday and provided an update following the activity, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Pavin Smith
(1B) 60-day IL — Smith underwent surgery to remove bone chips from his left elbow Thursday, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
A
A.J. Vukovich
(CF) out — Vukovich is expected to miss roughly 2-3 months with a left shoulder injury, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.
Out
J
Jordan Lawlar
(LF) 60-day IL — The Diamondbacks transferred Lawlar (wrist) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Carlos Santana
(1B) 10-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Santana on the 10-day injured list Tuesday with a right adductor strain.
10-Day-IL
K
Kyle Amendt
(RP) day-to-day — Amendt underwent shoulder surgery Tuesday, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Blake Walston
(SP) 60-day IL — Arizona placed Walston (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Cristian Mena
(RP) 60-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Mena (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
J
Justin Martinez
(RP) 60-day IL — Martinez (elbow) is throwing from up to 120 feet on flat ground, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Andrew Saalfrank
(RP) 60-day IL — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Derek Law
(RP) out — Law (forearm) signed a minor-league contract with the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, Aaron Hughes of SI.com reports.
Out
T
Tommy Henry
(RP) out — The Diamondbacks re-signed Henry (elbow) to a minor-league contract Monday.
Out

Milwaukee Brewers

Q
Quinn Priester
(SP) 15-day IL — Priester (wrist) is scheduled to throw about four innings and 60 pitches in the next start of his rehab assignment Friday, Jack Stern of BrewerFanatic.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Christian Yelich
(LF) 10-day IL — Yelich (groin) is ramping up his hitting and running work and still has an estimated return of mid-to-late May, Sophia Minnaert of Brewers.tv reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jared Koenig
(RP) 15-day IL — Koenig (elbow) is slated to resume a throwing program Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
A
Andrew Vaughn
(1B) 10-day IL — Vaughn (hand) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Nashville on Wednesday, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jackson Chourio
(CF) 10-day IL — Chourio (hand) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Nashville on Wednesday, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Gerson Garabito
(RP) day-to-day — Garabito will be out for four months after undergoing surgery to address a broken bone in his foot, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Rob Zastryzny
(RP) 60-day IL — Zastryzny (shoulder) was diagnosed with an intercostal strain and will be sidelined until at least late April, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Akil Baddoo
(LF) 60-day IL — The Brewers placed Baddoo (quadriceps) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
J.B. Bukauskas
(RP) day-to-day — Bukauskas will undergo surgery on his injured right lat and be sidelined for 9-to-10 months, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (330)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Geraldo Perdomo Day-To-Day
Zac Gallen Day-To-Day
Quinn Priester 15-Day-IL
Christian Yelich 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

Get Daily Picks

AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers

+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Milwaukee Brewers 63% Sharp Lean
"Over 8.5 +15.2pp Bayesian edge (65% posterior), MC 20.6 exp vs 8.5 line +24 EV"
55% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 55%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +5.3%
Line Movement
Current MIL -120 / ARI +100 ML; O/U 8.5; Spread MIL -120
Movement No significant movement
Marginal +EV on home ML; massive +24.5 on over 8.5
FULL ANALYSIS
Posterior fuses to 65% over 8.5 with Omega/MC projecting 20-22 runs vs soft market total amid equal injuries. Home ML 55% posterior + extreme $397k whale volume (76% conf, institutional tier) edges -120. Sharp 13.5% spread divergence to home overrides MC even margin, +3 conf boost.
SHARP MONEY
13.5% sharp edge on home spread + overall home divergence; weak ML sharp away offset by strong spread signal
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Milwaukee Brewers -1.5
+4.2 EV 63% 1.0u
MONEYLINE Milwaukee Brewers None
+1.4 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.5
+24.5 EV 65% 1.0u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Milwaukee Brewers -120
  • Bayesian posterior 55.3% vs 54.5% implied, minor edge
SPREAD PICK
● 63%
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5
  • Sharp edge 13.5% favors home spread + +50% EV vs retail shading
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
OVER 8.5
  • Posterior 65.2% over vs 50% implied (+15.2pp edge from Poisson+ELO fusion)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Brewers ML (-115 model): strong whales ($55k) + injury edge (+1.9%) for 54% prob vs 52% market
Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700

SIGNAL · LIVE