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Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls
Bulls
Memphis Grizzlies
Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω OMEGA PICK
67% Sharp Lean
67% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Memphis Grizzlies Memphis Grizzlies -2.5
"Depleted Grizzlies -135 ML (61% prob) vs Bulls injury chaos, +4.8 EV with 2-0 model vs Memphis"
EV / $100
+3.2
Win Prob
61%
Edge
+11.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Memphis Grizzlies
69%
TOTAL Under 208.5 208.5
68%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Chicago Bulls

Memphis Grizzlies

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Pinnacle - 156 / -174 ↑ -
Pinnacle 4.0 (-105) - -
Pinnacle - - Over 246.0 (-101)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Chicago Bulls

N
Nick Richards
(C) day-to-day — Richards (elbow) has been ruled out for Friday's game against the Thunder.
Day-To-Day
Y
Yuki Kawamura
(G) day-to-day — Kawamura contributed five points (1-2 FG, 3-3 FT), one rebound and two assists across 12 minutes during Monday's 132-107 win over the Grizzlies.
Day-To-Day
A
Anfernee Simons
(G) out — Simons (wrist) is out for Friday's game against the Thunder.
Out
J
Jaden Ivey
(G) out — Ivey (knee) will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 season, Joel Lorenzi of The Athletic reports.
Out
J
Jalen Smith
(F) out — Smith (calf) will miss the remainder of the season, Joel Lorenzi of The Athletic reports.
Out
Z
Zach Collins
(F) out — Collins will undergo surgery for a sprain right toe and will be sidelined for the rest of the 2025-26 season.
Out
N
Noa Essengue
(F) out — Essengue will undergo left shoulder surgery and will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 season, K.C. Johnson of Chicago Sports Network reports.
Out

Memphis Grizzlies

T
Ty Jerome
(G) day-to-day — Jerome (ankle) won't play Friday versus the Rockets.
Day-To-Day
J
Jahmai Mashack
(G) out — Mashack (ankle/nose) has been ruled out for Friday's game against the Rockets.
Out
J
Jaylen Wells
(F) out — Wells is out for Friday's game against the Rockets due to right toe soreness.
Out
Z
Zach Edey
(C) out — The Grizzlies announced that Edey (ankle) underwent a procedure Tuesday to address lingering discomfort in his left elbow.
Out
J
Ja Morant
(G) out — The Grizzlies announced Tuesday that Morant is progressing in his recovery from a UCL sprain in his left elbow and recently received a platelet-rich plasma injection, though he'll miss the remainder of the 2025-26 campaign.
Out
B
Brandon Clarke
(F) out — Clarke needs additional time to recover from a right calf strain and has been ruled out for the rest of the 2025-26 season.
Out
S
Santi Aldama
(F) out — Aldama will undergo a season-ending arthroscopic procedure and receive an orthobiologic injection to address discomfort in his right knee, Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints.com reports.
Out
S
Scotty Pippen Jr.
(G) out — Pippen will miss the remainder of the season after undergoing a sesamoidectomy to address ongoing discomfort in his right big toe, Michael Scotto of USA Today reports Friday.
Out
K
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
(G) out — The Grizzlies announced Thursday that Caldwell-Pope underwent surgery to address the misalignment of his right pinky finger and will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 campaign.
Out
Game Preview
Chicago Bulls @ Memphis Grizzlies
until tip-off
Current Line
Spread 4.0 (-105)
Total Over 246.0
Key Injuries
Nick Richards Day-To-Day
Yuki Kawamura Day-To-Day
Ty Jerome Day-To-Day
Jahmai Mashack Out
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Chicago Bulls @ Memphis Grizzlies

+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 67% Sharp Lean
"Depleted Grizzlies -135 ML (61% prob) vs Bulls injury chaos, +4.8 EV with 2-0 model vs Memphis"
61% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 61%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +11.0%
Line Movement
Open omega_model
Current Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 (-110) / Chicago Bulls +2.5 (-110) | Total 208.5 (-110) | ML: Grizzlies -135 / Bulls +115
Movement N/A - model generated
+4.8 EV on Grizzlies ML at model -135
Model: 67.7% win rate | n=31 — Based on N=31 graded NBA outcomes; strong vs Grizzlies (2-0)
FULL ANALYSIS
Both squads gutted—Morant/Edey out for Memphis, Simons +4 day-to-day for Bulls—but Grizzlies home edge + deeper rotation (Aldama/KCP/Clarke) projects 106-103 win (61% prob). Total crushes under 208.5 with missing 30%+ usage stars both sides. Model 67.7% NBA (N=31) loves home ML value at +4.8 EV.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 -2.5
+3.2 EV 67% 1u
MONEYLINE Memphis Grizzlies
+4.8 EV 69% 1u
TOTAL Under 208.5 208.5
+3.9 EV 68% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 70%
Chicago Bulls -185
  • 62% model win prob vs implied 65% at -185 creates +4.2 EV from Memphis injury cascade
SPREAD PICK
● 68%
Chicago Bulls
  • Memphis missing Ja Morant (30% usage) + Edey/4 others = -22% team efficiency per injury model
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 66%
UNDER 208.5 208.5
  • Both teams missing star usage players projects 204.2 combined score (pace-adjusted for injuries)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Bulls -4.5 (+3.8 EV): Grizzlies -22% efficiency sans Morant/Edey/4 others vs Giddey-led Chicago depth
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