Serie A
Genoa
Genoa
Atalanta
Atalanta
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAGenoa
Atalanta
Model Lines
MODELSpread
0.8
Moneyline
ATA -112
/
GEN 112
Win Probability
53%
-
47%
Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Genoa @ Atalanta
+-2.0 EV
per $100 wagered
Atalanta
57%
Lean
OMEGA model sees no actionable edge on this game. Atalanta 63.6% posterior = market fair, 0 EV on -175 ML; model 3-0 vs Genoa but juice/
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
64%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+13.6%
Line Movement
Open
Not available
Current
Atalanta -0.5 (-185 / Genoa +0.5 +130); ML Atalanta -175 / Genoa +425; Total 2.5
Movement
No significant line movement detected
Posterior matches devigged market exactly; vig eliminates edge
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian posterior pegs Atalanta home win at 63.6% matching devigged market with 0pp edge. Heavy juice on -175 ML/-0.5 spread kills value (EV negative). Model 3-0 vs Genoa but N=0 sport data caps confidence; pass all amid poor signals.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
57%
Atalanta -175
- Home posterior 63.6% matches market but fails breakeven +5% threshold (needs 69%)
SPREAD PICK
○
57%
Atalanta -0.5
- Bayesian posterior 63.6% home win aligns with -0.5 cover prob but juice too high
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
52%
UNDER 2.5
- No posterior available; default to Serie A under bias on low total with poor data
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Atalanta 63.6% posterior = market fair, 0 EV on -175 ML; model 3-0 vs Genoa but juice/pass
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