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MLB
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies
Miami Marlins
Marlins
Miami Marlins
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +49.3% EV
47% Lean
47% Lean
MONEYLINE
Miami Marlins Miami Marlins None
"Marlins ML +123 (+2pp Bayesian edge, +4.4EV); Over 8.0 +15.2pp posterior (65% vs 50%)"
EV / $100
+4.4
Win Prob
0%
Edge
-49.5%
Size
0.5u
SPREAD Miami Marlins 1.5
58%
TOTAL over 8.0
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 19.8% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1253879 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 514 trades Kalshi: 129 trades Largest: $34132
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +149.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.5
Win Prob
37.8%
ML
164 / -164

Player Props Engine

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Philadelphia Phillies

Miami Marlins

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 121 / -144 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 128 / -142 -
Value Line - 118 / -148 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-340) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-135) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-113)
De-Vigged Fair Value -128 / 128 135 / -135 O/U -105 / 105
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies

J
Justin Crawford
(CF) day-to-day — Crawford was scratched from the Phillies' lineup against the Marlins on Saturday due to a migraine, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Brandon Marsh
(LF) day-to-day — Marsh (elbow) is not in the Phillies' starting lineup against the Marlins on Saturday.
Day-To-Day
J
Jhoan Duran
(RP) 15-day IL — Duran (oblique) is scheduled to throw another bullpen session Saturday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Christian McGowan
(RP) day-to-day — McGowan will miss the remainder of the season following Tommy John surgery, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Rene Pinto
(C) day-to-day — The Phillies signed Pinto to a minor-league contract Jan. 6.
Day-To-Day
M
Max Lazar
(RP) 60-day IL — Lazar (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Jersey Shore on Thursday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kyle Backhus
(RP) 15-day IL — Backhus allowed one run on two hits across one inning of work as an opener Wednesday against the Cubs. He struck out one.
15-Day-IL
Z
Zach Pop
(RP) 15-day IL — Pop is slated to serve as the Phillies' opening pitcher in Sunday's game against the Diamondbacks, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
15-Day-IL
D
Daniel Robert
(RP) day-to-day — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Keaton Anthony
(1B) day-to-day — Anthony suffered a fractured toe after fouling a ball off his foot during Monday's Grapefruit League game versus the Red Sox, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Andrew Bechtold
(3B) day-to-day — Bechtold signed a minor-league contract with the Blue Jays on Dec. 1.
Day-To-Day
J
Johan Rojas
(CF) Suspension — MLB announced Monday that Rojas has been suspended 80 games for violating the league's policy against performance-enhancing drugs, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
suspension
M
Michael Mercado
(RP) day-to-day — The Phillies reassigned Mercado (shoulder) to minor-league camp Thursday, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mark Kolozsvary
(C) day-to-day — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day

Miami Marlins

O
Owen Caissie
(RF) day-to-day — Cassie was scratched from Saturday's lineup against the Phillies due to an illness, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports.
Day-To-Day
P
Pete Fairbanks
(RP) 15-day IL — Fairbanks described the issue that forced him out of Monday's 5-4 loss to the Dodgers as numbness in his pitching hand, a potential recurrence of the nerve issue that sidelined him in April 2024 during his time with the Rays, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports. "Just a lot of diminished sensation," Fairbanks said after the game. "Felt like any movement of the wrist would exacerbate just loss of sensation in the index finger. So we'll see where it goes and how to work on it."
15-Day-IL
G
Griffin Conine
(LF) 10-day IL — Conine will undergo a left hamstring tendon excision next week, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Adam Mazur
(SP) 60-day IL — The Marlins placed Mazur (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
R
Ronny Henriquez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Marlins placed Henriquez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jesus Tinoco
(RP) out — The Marlins re-signed Tinoco (elbow) to a minor-league contract Jan. 5.
Out
Game Preview
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-340)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Justin Crawford Day-To-Day
Brandon Marsh Day-To-Day
Owen Caissie Day-To-Day
Pete Fairbanks 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins

+4.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Miami Marlins 47% Lean
"Marlins ML +123 (+2pp Bayesian edge, +4.4EV); Over 8.0 +15.2pp posterior (65% vs 50%)"
0% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 0%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -49.5%
Line Movement
Current ML: PHI -149 / MIA +123; Spread: PHI -149; Total: 8.0
Movement No significant line movement detected
equal_injury_impact
Small +EV on Marlins ML (+123); negative on Phils ML (-149)
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian posterior edges Marlins ML +2pp at +123 with omega seeing fair +164 amid equal -11% injury hits both sides. Over 8 crushed by 65.2% posterior vs 50% implied, omega/MC project 20+ runs. Sharps/whales (extreme $1.2M vol) push Phillies but low model agreement caps conviction; value on home runline vs Pinnacle fair 56% cover.
SHARP MONEY
19.3% spread edge to away + moderate ML edge; strong overall signal
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Miami Marlins None
+4.4 EV 47% 0.5u
SPREAD Miami Marlins 1.5
+6.9 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.0
+20.1 EV 60% 1.0u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 47%
Miami Marlins 123
  • Bayesian posterior 46.8% vs market 44.8% (+2pp edge)
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Miami Marlins 1.5
  • Pinnacle fair home cover 56.1% vs market implies ~40%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 8.0
  • Per-bet posterior 65.2% vs 50% implied (+15.2pp edge)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Phillies -2.2: 19% sharp edge + extreme whales = +50% EV despite data gaps
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