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MLB
Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox
Sox
New York Yankees
Yankees
New York Yankees
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +42.9% EV ALIGNED
62% Lean
62% Lean
MONEYLINE
New York Yankees New York Yankees None
"White Sox +1.5 has +3.9pp edge with extra 1.5 points from Omega line; over 9.5 has massive +15.2pp Bayesian edge but model uncertainty caps confidence."
EV / $100
+2.0
Win Prob
62%
Edge
+1.2%
Size
0.5u
SPREAD Chicago White Sox 1.5
55%
TOTAL over 9.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.1% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1640801 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (73% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 507 trades Kalshi: 44 trades Largest: $152772
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.0
Win Prob
44.1%
ML
127 / -127

Player Props Engine

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Chicago White Sox

New York Yankees

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -159 / 133 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -152 / 137 -
Value Line - -159 / 128 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (245) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (132) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.5 (-101)
De-Vigged Fair Value 141 / -141 -145 / 145 O/U 106 / -106
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Chicago White Sox

S
Sean Newcomb
(RP) day-to-day — Newcomb notched a save against the Royals on Thursday, allowing one hit and striking out one batter over two scoreless innings.
Day-To-Day
H
Hagen Smith
(SP) day-to-day — Smith will be shut down for two weeks after being diagnosed with a left shoulder impingement, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Kyle Teel
(C) 60-day IL — Teel (knee/hamstring) will start a minor-league rehab assignment with Triple-A Charlotte on Tuesday, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
60-Day-IL
N
Noah Schultz
(SP) 15-day IL — Schultz (knee) will begin a minor-league rehab assignment with Triple-A Charlotte on Tuesday, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jordan Hicks
(RP) 15-day IL — Hicks (lat) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Charlotte on Saturday, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Tim Elko
(1B) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
T
Tyler Gilbert
(RP) 15-day IL — The White Sox placed Gilbert on the 15-day injured list Wednesday with a left shoulder impingement.
15-Day-IL
A
Austin Hays
(LF) 60-day IL — Hays has been pulled off his rehab assignment at Triple-A Charlotte due to a recurrence of left calf soreness, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Munetaka Murakami
(1B) 10-day IL — White Sox manager Will Venable said Monday that Murakami (hamstring) stayed back in Chicago during the team's road trip and was given a platelet-rich plasma injection, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jordan Leasure
(RP) 60-day IL — Leasure (forearm) said Friday that he will be shut down from throwing for four weeks, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
60-Day-IL
K
Ky Bush
(SP) 60-day IL — Bush (elbow) had a setback in his recovery from Tommy John surgery and is unlikely to return until the second half of the season, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Drew Thorpe
(SP) 60-day IL — Thorpe (elbow) recently underwent an appendectomy but has resumed throwing, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Prelander Berroa
(RP) 60-day IL — Berroa is dealing with right elbow inflammation and will have his rehab stint paused, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Mike Vasil
(RP) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Vasil (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Murray
(LF) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Murray (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
M
Mason Adams
(RP) day-to-day — The White Sox announced that Adams underwent successful Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Brooks Baldwin
(LF) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Baldwin (elbow) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL

New York Yankees

T
Trent Grisham
(CF) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Grisham has been diagnosed with a "moderate" right hamstring strain, Brendan Kuty of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Giancarlo Stanton
(DH) 10-day IL — The Yankees announced that Stanton (calf) reinjured his calf and will have a slow week of activities, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Austin Wells
(C) 10-day IL — Wells (head) has been sent to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre to begin a rehab assignment.
10-Day-IL
M
Max Fried
(SP) 15-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Friday that Fried (elbow) will throw off a mound Saturday, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) has been "feeling great" during recent mound sessions and could start throwing to hitters by the end of June, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
E
Eric Reyzelman
(SP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
A
Aaron Judge
(RF) 10-day IL — The Yankees announced Thursday that Judge has a stress fracture of his first rib on his right side and will be sidelined for 4-to-6 weeks before being re-evaluated, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Travis MacGregor
(SP) day-to-day — MacGregor underwent Tommy John surgery last September and will miss the entire 2019 season, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Chicago White Sox @ New York Yankees
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (245)
Total Over 9.5
Key Injuries
Sean Newcomb Day-To-Day
Hagen Smith Day-To-Day
Trent Grisham 10-Day-IL
Giancarlo Stanton 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Chicago White Sox @ New York Yankees

+1.98 EV
per $100 wagered
New York Yankees 62% Lean
"White Sox +1.5 has +3.9pp edge with extra 1.5 points from Omega line; over 9.5 has massive +15.2pp Bayesian edge but model uncertainty caps confidence."
62% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 62%
Book Implied 61%
Edge +1.2%
Line Movement
Current Home -157 / Away +130; Spread -1.5; Total 9.5
Movement No significant movement detected
Slight positive edge, but below the 5% threshold required for a recommended moneyline play. Marginal.
FULL ANALYSIS
The Bayesian fusion shows a small edge on Yankees moneyline (+1.2pp) and a moderate edge on White Sox +1.5 (+3.9pp). However, sharp money and whales favor the home side, creating conflict. The most striking signal is the over 9.5, with a 15.2pp edge, likely stemming from a model that projects very high scoring (Omega total 22.5). Despite data quality concerns, the posterior is strong enough to warrant a lean. Caution: the model may be overestimating scoring, so confidence is capped at 60.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge on spread strongly favors home, but market spread line has not moved. Prediction markets and whales align with home. However, Bayesian posterior for moneyline edge is only +1.2pp, and spread edge is on away. Contradictory signals.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
+2.0 EV 62% 0.5u
SPREAD Chicago White Sox 1.5
+2.9 EV 55% 1.0u
TOTAL over 9.5
+24.5 EV 60% 1.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 62%
New York Yankees -157
  • Bayesian posterior shows 62.3% win probability vs market 61.1%, yielding a small +1.2% edge
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Chicago White Sox 1.5
  • Bayesian posterior gives 53.9% cover probability vs market 50%, a +3.9pp edge on the underdog spread
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 9.5
  • Bayesian posterior shows 65.2% over probability vs market 50%, a massive +15.2pp edge
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
White Sox +2.2 and +150 ML offer positive EV against market shading, but sharp money disagrees — proceed with caution.
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