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Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates
New York Mets
Mets
New York Mets
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
67% Sharp Lean
67% Sharp Lean
MONEYLINE
New York Mets New York Mets
"Mets ML +4.4 EV: Soto .500 + Pirates pitching decimated (Jones IL), model 62% win prob"
EV / $100
+4.4
Win Prob
62%
Edge
+12.0%
Size
1u
SPREAD New York Mets -1.5 -1.5
64%
TOTAL Under 8.0 8.0
66%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Pittsburgh Pirates

New York Mets

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Bovada Best Line - -182 / 150 ↑ -
Pinnacle - -174 / 156 -
Kambi - -177 / 140 -
Bovada Best Line -3.0 (245) - -
Pinnacle -1.5 (124) ↓ - -
Pinnacle - - Over 7.5 (-114)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Pittsburgh Pirates

C
Chris Devenski
(RP) out — The Pirates reassigned Devenski (head) to minor-league camp Sunday.
Out
O
Oddanier Mosqueda
(RP) out — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
Out
R
Ronny Simon
(2B) out — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Monday that Simon (shoulder) is projected to return to game competition in late March or early April, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
Out
J
Jared Jones
(SP) 60-day IL — Pirates senior director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Monday that Jones (elbow) should be ready for game action when he's eligible to return from the 60-day injured list in late May, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Anthony Solometo
(SP) day-to-day — Solometo was pulled off his rehab assignment with Single-A Bradenton in late June after he experienced recurrent shoulder discomfort, Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
Day-To-Day

New York Mets

M
Mike Tauchman
(RF) out — Tauchman underwent surgery Thursday to repair the torn meniscus in his left knee, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
Out
A
A.J. Minter
(RP) 15-day IL — The Mets placed Minter (lat) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
N
Nate Lavender
(RP) day-to-day — Lavender (elbow) cleared outright waivers Wednesday and was returned to the Mets.
Day-To-Day
J
Justin Hagenman
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
B
Brandon Waddell
(RP) day-to-day — The Mets outrighted Waddell to Triple-A Syracuse on Friday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Robert Stock
(RP) out — Stock experienced shoulder discomfort while playing with Team Israel in the World Baseball Classic and will undergo testing, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports.
Out
G
Grae Kessinger
(3B) out — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that Kessinger will get imaging done after suffering a left knee injury in Friday's Grapefruit League game against the Cardinals, SNY Mets reports.
Out
D
Dedniel Nunez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets transferred Nunez (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tylor Megill
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets and Megill (elbow) avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $2.5 million contract Thursday, Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reed Garrett
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (245)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Chris Devenski Out
Oddanier Mosqueda Out
Mike Tauchman Out
A.J. Minter 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets

+4.4 EV
per $100 wagered
New York Mets 67% Sharp Lean
"Mets ML +4.4 EV: Soto .500 + Pirates pitching decimated (Jones IL), model 62% win prob"
62% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 62%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +12.0%
Line Movement
Open omega_model
Current Mets -145 / Pirates +122 | Spread: Mets -1.5 (+140) / Pirates +1.5 (-165) | Total: 8.0 (-110)
Movement N/A - model generated lines
+4.4 EV on Mets ML at model -145 vs fair -163 line
Model: 57.1% win rate | n=21 — Based on N=21 graded MLB outcomes; fade recent Pirates ML signal
FULL ANALYSIS
Mets get 3% ML edge with Soto scorching .500 and Pirates down Jones + Devenski from staff. Model totals 9.0 but Citi + March chill push under 8. Pirates strikeout props value vs Mets bats (24% team K%). Small N=21 model but +1.96u P&L recent.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE New York Mets
+4.4 EV 67% 1u
SPREAD New York Mets -1.5 -1.5
+3.2 EV 64% 0.5u
TOTAL Under 8.0 8.0
+2.8 EV 66% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 67%
New York Mets -145
  • Mets +3% win prob edge from Juan Soto .500 BA and Pirates missing Jared Jones (60-day IL) + bullpen injuries
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
New York Mets
  • Model expected score Mets 5.1 - Pirates 3.9 = 1.2 run edge, covers -1.5 in 58% sims
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 66%
UNDER 8.0 8.0
  • Model total 9.0 but early March cool temps (<60F projected) +12% under bias + Pirates bullpen depleted
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Mets ML +4.4 EV: Soto .500 + Pirates pitching decimated (Jones IL), model 62% win prob
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