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MLB
New York Yankees
New York Yankees
Yankees
Athletics
Athletics
Athletics
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.0% EV
68% Strong
68% Strong
SPREAD
Athletics Athletics 1.5
"Athletics spread +290 offers +50% EV vs Pinnacle fair value — sharp money divergence at 27.9% confirms the edge"
EV / $100
+50.0
Win Prob
62%
Edge
+1.6%
Size
1.5u
MONEYLINE Athletics None
65%
TOTAL under 10.0
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 27.9% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$2154335 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (83% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 695 trades Kalshi: 183 trades Largest: $89658
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +156.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +12.5
Win Prob
28.1%
ML
256 / -256

Player Props Engine

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New York Yankees

Athletics

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 130 / -155 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 139 / -151 -
Value Line - 128 / -159 -
Sharp Action Best Line 4.5 (-430) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-114) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.5 (-112)
De-Vigged Fair Value -108 / 108 145 / -145 O/U -106 / 106
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Yankees

A
Angel Chivilli
(RP) 15-day IL — Chivilli (shoulder) has resumed throwing off a mound and is slated to throw live batting practice during the coming week, per MLB.com.
15-Day-IL
G
Giancarlo Stanton
(DH) 10-day IL — Stanton (calf) has begun running outside, per MLB.com.
10-Day-IL
A
Amed Rosario
(3B) Paternity — The Yankees placed Rosario (personal) on the Paternity List prior to Saturday's game against the Athletics.
Paternity
M
Max Fried
(SP) 15-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said that Fried (elbow) played catch Monday, Greg Joyce of the New York Post reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jasson Dominguez
(LF) 10-day IL — Dominguez (shoulder) could be ready for a minor-league rehab assignment during the first week of June, per MLB.com.
10-Day-IL
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Pete Caldera of The Bergen Record reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Travis MacGregor
(SP) day-to-day — MacGregor underwent Tommy John surgery last September and will miss the entire 2019 season, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day

Athletics

M
Max Muncy
(3B) 10-day IL — Muncy (hand) will serve as the designated hitter for Triple-A Las Vegas on Saturday, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jacob Wilson
(SS) 10-day IL — Wilson (shoulder) has been ramping up his baseball activities and could begin a rehab assignment next week, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
L
Luis Severino
(SP) 15-day IL — Severino was removed from Friday's game against the Yankees with right arm soreness, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
L
Leo De Vries
(SS) day-to-day — De Vries went 3-for-5 with two solo home runs Sunday for Double-A Midland.
Day-To-Day
D
Denzel Clarke
(CF) 60-day IL — Clarke (hamstring) will receive a platelet-rich plasma injection Tuesday, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Aaron Civale
(SP) 15-day IL — The Athletics placed Civale on the 15-day injured list Tuesday due to right shoulder tendinitis.
15-Day-IL
G
Gunnar Hoglund
(SP) 60-day IL — Hoglund (knee/back) will be sidelined for the rest of the 2026 season after undergoing surgery on his left hip Monday.
60-Day-IL
B
Brooks Kriske
(RP) 15-day IL — Kriske (shoulder) will be shut down from throwing for at least three weeks, Jason Burke of SI.com reports.
15-Day-IL
Game Preview
New York Yankees @ Athletics
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 4.5 (-430)
Total Over 9.5
Key Injuries
Angel Chivilli 15-Day-IL
Giancarlo Stanton 10-Day-IL
Max Muncy 10-Day-IL
Jacob Wilson 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Yankees @ Athletics

+50.0 EV
per $100 wagered
Athletics 68% Strong
"Athletics spread +290 offers +50% EV vs Pinnacle fair value — sharp money divergence at 27.9% confirms the edge"
62% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 62%
Book Implied 61%
Edge +1.6%
Line Movement
Open NYY -156 / Total 10.0
Current NYY -156 / Total 10.0
Movement No movement detected — market is stable
Injury impact roughly equal (-7.8% each side) — no net advantage No starting pitcher data — model projections are degraded Cross-market signal confirms away side (ML + spread both favor away)
At -156 odds, breakeven is 60.9%. Our posterior of 62.5% gives a slim +2.6% EV per $100. This is marginal — the calibrated edge is positive but small, and the model agreement is LOW (9.5% spread). The +EV analysis from Market Consensus fair value shows the spread away side at +290 offers +50% EV, which is a much stronger signal.
FULL ANALYSIS
The sharpest edge on this slate is the Athletics spread at +290 on Bovada — Pinnacle fair value has it at 48% cover probability, creating a massive +50% EV. The Bayesian fusion posterior gives away 62.5% on the ML vs market 56.3%, a +6.1pp edge. Sharp money divergence on the spread is 27.9% with strong signal, and the cross-market signal confirms away side. Whale signals contradict (83% home volume, $2.1M), but sharp books are more reliable for MLB. The total is a coin flip — the OMEGA projection of 22.5 is clearly unreliable without pitcher data, so the under at 10.0 is a marginal lean. No starting pitcher data means all projections are degraded, but the sharp money signal on the spread is too strong to ignore.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge on spread is 27.9% favoring away, with strong signal. Pinnacle fair value has away at 59.2% on ML vs retail 60.9% — sharps are shading toward the Athletics. The +EV analysis shows spread away at +290 offers +50% EV vs fair value. Whale signals contradict (83% on home, $2.1M volume), but sharp books are more reliable than prediction markets for MLB.
Recommended Sizing
1.5u
Positive EV with multiple confirming factors. Standard sizing.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Athletics 1.5
+50.0 EV 68% 1.5u
MONEYLINE Athletics None
+4.1 EV 65% 1u
TOTAL under 10.0
+2.8 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 65%
Athletics 129
  • Bayesian posterior gives away 62.5% vs market 56.3% — a +6.1pp edge
  • Sharp money and Pinnacle fair value both favor away side
SPREAD PICK
● 68%
Athletics 1.5
  • Pinnacle fair value has Athletics spread at 48% cover probability; retail Bovada offers +290, creating +50% EV — the largest edge in the slate
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
UNDER 10.0
  • OMEGA total projection of 22.5 is clearly unreliable (missing pitcher data)
  • The market total of 10.0 is more realistic for MLB
  • Bayesian posterior shows over 65.2% but with LOW model agreement — this is a contrarian lean on under given the data quality warning
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Athletics +1.5 at +200 offers +37% EV with sharp money confirmation — the only edge in a low-information game.
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