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NBA
Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards
Wizards
Miami Heat
Heat
Miami Heat
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω OMEGA PICK +67.7% EV
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Miami Heat Miami Heat -17.5
EV / $100
+3.1
Win Prob
92%
Edge
+42.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Miami Heat None
50%
TOTAL over 249.5
67%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors over side. 21.8% divergence on total with strong signal.
Sharp: over Boost: +2

Player Props Engine

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Washington Wizards

Miami Heat

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -2000 / 950 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -1792 / 1041 -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 24.5 (240)
Market Consensus - - Over 248.5 (-105)
Market Consensus Best Line -17.5 (-105) - -
Value Line -17.5 (-109) ↓ - -
Fair Value PIN DE-VIG 101 / -101 -1081 / 1081 O/U 103 / -103
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Washington Wizards

J
Justin Champagnie
(F) day-to-day — Champagnie (knee) is listed as questionable for Saturday's game against the Heat.
Day-To-Day
T
Trae Young
(G) out — Young (quadriceps) is out for Saturday's game versus Miami.
Out
A
Alex Sarr
(C) out — Sarr (toe) is questionable for Saturday's game against Miami.
Out
B
Bilal Coulibaly
(G) day-to-day — Coulibaly (heel) is questionable for Saturday's game against Miami.
Day-To-Day
T
Tristan Vukcevic
(F) day-to-day — Vukcevic (knee) is questionable for Saturday's game against Miami.
Day-To-Day
T
Tre Johnson
(G) day-to-day — Johnson (foot) is questionable for Saturday's game versus Miami.
Day-To-Day
K
Kyshawn George
(F) out — George (elbow) will miss the rest of the 2025-26 season, Chase Hughes of Monumental Sports Network reports.
Out
A
Anthony Davis
(F) out — Davis (finger) is healing on schedule and has been cleared for light contact work, though he remains without a timetable for a return, Josh Robbins of The Athletic reports.
Out
D
D'Angelo Russell
(G) out — Russell (not injury related) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Magic.
Out
C
Cam Whitmore
(F) out — Whitmore has begun the recovery process for a diagnosed venous condition and he will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 season.
Out

Miami Heat

T
Tyler Herro
(G) day-to-day — Herro (foot soreness) is probable for Saturday's game against Washington, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports.
Day-To-Day
N
Norman Powell
(G) out — Powell (illness) is out for Saturday's game against Washington, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports.
Out
T
Terry Rozier
(G) out — The Heat are planning to release Rozier in the near future, Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald reports.
Out
Game Preview
Washington Wizards @ Miami Heat
until tip-off
Current Line
Total Over 24.5
Spread -17.5 (-105)
Key Injuries
Justin Champagnie Day-To-Day
Trae Young Out
Tyler Herro Day-To-Day
Norman Powell Out
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Washington Wizards @ Miami Heat

+3.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Miami Heat 65% Sharp Lean
OMEGA model sees no actionable edge on this game. Heat -17.5 (Wizards -25% sans Young/Sarr) + 21.8% sharp OVER edge (+6.8EV); ML extreme juice
92% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 92%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +42.0%
Line Movement
Current MIA -17.5 / O/U 249.5 / MIA -2100
Movement No movement data
Heavy juice on -2100 ML exceeds breakeven 95.5%; requires 100.5% confidence for +EV. Spread offers pick'em fair value per Pinnacle but model sees home edge.
Model: 48.6% win rate | n=292 — Calibrated down per tier data; moneylines profitable in lean/strong tiers
FULL ANALYSIS
Wizards crippled by Young/Sarr out + 4 day-to-days drops net rating -25; Heat -17.5 value despite own injuries as Pinnacle sees pick'em. Massive 21.8% sharp OVER divergence with Bovada +240 = +67EV. Model caps ML PASS at -2100 juice.
SHARP MONEY
21.8% sharp divergence on total OVER strongest signal; weak sharp edges to WIZ ML/spread (Pinnacle near pick'em vs retail -17.5)
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Miami Heat -17.5
+3.1 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Miami Heat None
-4.2 EV 50%
TOTAL over 249.5
+6.8 EV 67% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 67%
Miami Heat -190
  • Model 58% Heat win prob vs -190 breakeven 65.5%; Wizards talent decimated by 6 outs including AD/Young
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Miami Heat -4.5
  • Wizards missing AD (listed leader), Young, Sarr, Russell, George - 5 rotation players out vs Heat missing only Powell/Rozier
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 208.5
  • Both teams missing scoring wings/guards; depleted rosters project 211.5 combined, under bias on injury spots
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Heat -4.5 (+2.8EV): Wiz missing AD/Young/Sarr/Russell (6 outs) vs Heat's 2, model 58% win prob
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