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MLB
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals
Atlanta Braves
Braves
Atlanta Braves
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +41.8% EV
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves -1.5
"Braves run line gets heavy sharp and whale support; injuries tilt further."
EV / $100
+5.5
Win Prob
62%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Atlanta Braves None
55%
TOTAL under 9.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 13.9% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$419047 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 91 trades Largest: $52000

Player Props Engine

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St. Louis Cardinals

Atlanta Braves

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -157 / 131 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -150 / 135 -
Value Line - -167 / 133 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (240) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (131) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.5 (-107)
De-Vigged Fair Value 140 / -140 -143 / 143 O/U -100 / -100
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

St. Louis Cardinals

Z
Zack Thompson
(RP) day-to-day — Thompson (shoulder) has been shut down due to an intercostal strain, Amber Winkler of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Day-To-Day
S
Sem Robberse
(SP) day-to-day — Robberse (elbow) has been sent to the Cardinals' Florida Complex League affiliate to begin a rehab assignment.
Day-To-Day
R
Ryan Fernandez
(RP) 15-day IL — Fernandez (back) is on track to begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Memphis on Friday, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Ramon Urias
(3B) 60-day IL — Urias (elbow) returned to St. Louis to undergo an examination on his left elbow, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Packy Naughton
(RP) day-to-day — Naughton will undergo surgery next month to repair the damaged UCL in his left elbow, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Day-To-Day
V
Victor Santos
(RP) day-to-day — The Red Sox traded Santos (undisclosed) and Nick Robertson to the Cardinals on Friday in exchange for Tyler O'Neill (foot), Alex Speier of The Boston Globe reports.
Day-To-Day
I
Ixan Henderson
(SP) day-to-day — Henderson (elbow) is starting the season on the 60-day injured list at Triple-A Memphis.
Day-To-Day

Atlanta Braves

S
Spencer Schwellenbach
(SP) 60-day IL — Schwellenbach (elbow) will likely report to Atlanta's spring training facility in early July and could be a candidate to rejoin the major-league rotation by late August or early September, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
AJ Smith-Shawver
(SP) 60-day IL — Smith-Shawver (elbow) is slated to make the first start of his rehab assignment Tuesday with Single-A Augusta, Barrett Sallee of 680 The Fan Atlanta reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Robert Suarez
(RP) 15-day IL — An MRI on Suarez's right elbow came back negative Friday, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
D
Danny Young
(RP) 60-day IL — Young (elbow) walked and hit a batter but struck out three in a scoreless inning in his first rehab appearance with Double-A Columbus on Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kyle Farmer
(DH) 10-day IL — Farmer (forearm) will begin a rehab assignment with Double-A Columbus on Tuesday.
10-Day-IL
S
Spencer Strider
(SP) 60-day IL — Atlanta transferred Strider (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
R
Ronald Acuna Jr.
(RF) 10-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Wednesday that Acuna (hamstring) is a "long way" from returning from the 10-day injured list, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
S
Sean Murphy
(C) 60-day IL — Murphy had the cast on his left hand removed Tuesday and is now wearing a splint to protect his fractured middle finger, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reprots.
60-Day-IL
J
Joe Jimenez
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss revealed Wednesday that Jimenez underwent another surgery on his left knee 3-to-4 weeks ago, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jurickson Profar
(LF) Suspension — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
suspension
J
Joey Wentz
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta placed Wentz (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (240)
Total Over 9.5
Key Injuries
Zack Thompson Day-To-Day
Sem Robberse Day-To-Day
Spencer Schwellenbach 60-Day-IL
AJ Smith-Shawver 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves

+5.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Atlanta Braves 58% Lean
"Braves run line gets heavy sharp and whale support; injuries tilt further."
62% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 62%
Book Implied 62%
Edge 0.0%
Line Movement
Current ML: -163/+135, Spread: -1.5, Total: 9.5
Movement No significant movement
Away more affected by injuries (-9.7% vs -6.9%)
Negligible edge on ML; no actionable value
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money and whale volume converge on Braves run line despite data limitations. Injury impact favors home side. Moneyline offers no edge. Total is a pass.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp spread edge 13.7% (strong signal) and whale volume $419K on home; ML sharp favors away but less weight
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Atlanta Braves -1.5
+5.5 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Atlanta Braves None
+0.1 EV 55%
TOTAL under 9.5
55%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Atlanta Braves -163
  • Bayesian posterior matches market; no edge
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Atlanta Braves -1.5
  • Sharp money and whale consensus heavily favor Braves run line; injury impact also helps home side
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 9.5
  • No pace or weather data; market fair value 50%
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Monte Carlo 10K sims: 82.5% under at 22.5 total — the only data-rich edge in a game missing pitchers, venue, and weather; pick the under with 0.5u, everything else is a pass
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