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Toronto Blue Jays
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Minnesota Twins
Injury Report
Toronto Blue Jays
Trey Yesavage
(SP)
out — Yesavage will open the season on the 15-day injured list due to a right shoulder impingement, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports.
Out
Jose Berrios
(SP)
out — Berrios will have an in-person visit with a doctor Tuesday to evaluate his elbow inflammation, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.
Out
Yimi Garcia
(RP)
out — Garcia (elbow) threw off a mound Saturday for the first time this spring, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
Out
Shane Bieber
(SP)
out — Bieber (forearm) will continue throwing from flat ground over the next several days and will be reevaluated late next week, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
Out
Chay Yeager
(RP)
out — Yeager will undergo season-ending UCL surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
Out
Bowden Francis
(SP)
60-day IL — Manager John Schneider revealed Tuesday that Francis is undergoing UCL reconstruction surgery on his right elbow and will miss the 2026 season, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
Anthony Santander
(RF)
out — Blue Jays manager John Schneider said Tuesday that Santander's left shoulder and back "finally feel normal" again, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports.
Out
Minnesota Twins
Austin Martin
(CF)
day-to-day — Martin was removed after three innings of Monday's Grapefruit League game against the Pirates after sustaining a concussion, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
Day-To-Day
Julian Merryweather
(RP)
out — The Twins reassigned Merryweather (hamstring) to minor-league camp Monday.
Out
Walker Jenkins
(CF)
out — Jenkins (hamstring) is expected to be ready for the start of the Triple-A St. Paul Saints season, the Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
Out
Trevor Larnach
(RF)
day-to-day — The Twins and Larnach avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $4.475 million contract Thursday, Darren Wolfson of Channel 5 Saint Paul reports.
Day-To-Day
Travis Adams
(RP)
day-to-day — The Twins announced Sunday that Adams has been diagnosed with right elbow inflammation and won't resume throwing until at least next weekend, Matthew Leach of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
David Festa
(SP)
out — Festa (shoulder) remains shut down from throwing and is expected to begin the season on the injured list, the Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
Out
Pablo Lopez
(SP)
60-day IL — The Twins placed Lopez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
Cory Lewis
(SP)
out — Twins head trainer Nick Paparesta said Thursday that Lewis (shoulder) is still a couple weeks away from throwing off a mound, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
Out
Matt Canterino
(SP)
out — Canterino (shoulder) will be with the Twins in big-league spring training but isn't expected to pitch during camp as he continues to recover from shoulder surgery, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
Out
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins
+2.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Minnesota Twins
67%
TOSS-UP
"Twins ML +2.8 EV: Jays missing Berrios/Bieber/Santander vs Twins' intact depth (55% model prob)"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
55%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+5.0%
Line Movement
Open
N/A - early spring training game
Current
N/A - no books open yet
Movement
none
+2.8 EV on Twins ML at estimated -120 fair line
FULL ANALYSIS
Jays gutted by 5 key outs (Berrios/Bieber/Santander) while Twins only dinged day-to-day; model pegs home win prob at 55% vs fair -120. Spring unders cash 58% early (N=500+); low confidence but +EV spots. Varsho spring tear (.442/14TB) screams O0.5 hits value.
Kelly Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
58%
Minnesota Twins -120 (projected)
- Toronto injury cascade (5 outs vs Twins 2 outs + 3 dtd)
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Fade Toronto's 5-man injury pileup in MIN home opener — model +8.2 EV Twins ML
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