Home › Bundesliga › VfL Wolfsburg @ Bayer Leverkusen
Bundesliga
VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg
Wolfsburg
Bayer Leverkusen
Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen
Full Game Analysis
Bundesliga
Ω OMEGA PICK
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen -1.5
"Leverkusen ML -245: 74% model > 71% breakeven (+3.2 EV) on 13-7-7 home vs 5-6-16 road dogs"
EV / $100
+2.1
Win Prob
74%
Edge
+24.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Bayer Leverkusen None
74%
TOTAL over 3.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

Player Props Engine

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VfL Wolfsburg

Bayer Leverkusen

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
BAY -100 / VFL -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
VfL Wolfsburg @ Bayer Leverkusen
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

VfL Wolfsburg @ Bayer Leverkusen

+2.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Bayer Leverkusen 64% Sharp Lean
"Leverkusen ML -245: 74% model > 71% breakeven (+3.2 EV) on 13-7-7 home vs 5-6-16 road dogs"
74% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 74%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +24.0%
Line Movement
Open No open line available
Current Bayer Leverkusen -1.5 (105 / -150), ML -245 / +500, Total 3.5
Movement No movement data
Breakeven 71% exceeded by 3%; avoid spread due to vig asymmetry, ML offers value despite juice
FULL ANALYSIS
Leverkusen -245 ML offers +3.2 EV as 74% model prob beats 71% breakeven despite juice, backed by 13-7-7 home form crushing Wolfsburg's 5-6-16 road misery. Spread -1.5 +105 has edge but vig kills ROI; soccer markets overprice favorites. Total 3.5 over lean from Bundesliga 3.2 avg goals but totals losing in calibration—small size only.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Bayer Leverkusen -1.5
+2.1 EV 64% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Bayer Leverkusen None
+3.2 EV 74% 1u
TOTAL over 3.5
+1.8 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 76%
Bayer Leverkusen -250
  • 76% model prob exceeds -250 breakeven (71.4%) by 4.6%; record gap drives edge
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Bayer Leverkusen -1.5
  • Leverkusen 13-7-7 record crushes Wolfsburg's 5-6-16; home dominance vs poor away side
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 3.5
  • Bundesliga avg 2.9 goals; model projects 3.0 total in matchup
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Leverkusen ML -250: 76% model prob beats 71.4% breakeven by 4.6% (+4.8 EV) on massive record gap
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