Home › NCAA Men's Basketball › Northern Kentucky Norse @ South Dakota Coyotes
NCAA Men's Basketball
Northern Kentucky Norse
Northern Kentucky Norse
Norse
South Dakota Coyotes
Coyotes
South Dakota Coyotes
Full Game Analysis
NCAA Men's Basketball
Ω DDN SI PICK
57% Lean
57% Lean
SPREAD
South Dakota Coyotes South Dakota Coyotes 2.5
"Coin-flip line means take the plus-money side: Coyotes +120 at ~45.5% implied vs our ~53% read, +2.4 EV on a no-data game"
EV / $100
+1.2
Win Prob
53%
Edge
+0.8%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE South Dakota Coyotes None
56%
TOTAL under 160.5
58%
Full DDN SI Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors over side. 1.7% divergence on total with moderate signal.
Sharp: over
Whale Activity Detected
$11546 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (100% of whale volume).
Whales: home Kalshi: 96 trades Largest: $857

Player Props Engine

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Northern Kentucky Norse

South Dakota Coyotes

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 125 / -145 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 124 / -145 -
Value Line - 120 / -150 -
Sharp Action Best Line 2.5 (-105) - -
Market Consensus 2.5 (-105) ↓ - -
Value Line 2.5 (-112) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 161.0 (-110)
Market Consensus - - Over 160.0 (-120)
Value Line - - Over 161.5 (-114)
De-Vigged Fair Value 103 / -103 135 / -135 O/U -109 / 109
Line Movement
Open Current
Game Preview
Northern Kentucky Norse @ South Dakota Coyotes
until tip-off
Current Line
Spread 2.5 (-105)
Total Over 161.0
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Northern Kentucky Norse @ South Dakota Coyotes

+1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
South Dakota Coyotes 57% Lean
"Coin-flip line means take the plus-money side: Coyotes +120 at ~45.5% implied vs our ~53% read, +2.4 EV on a no-data game"
53% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 53%
Book Implied 52%
Edge +0.8%
Line Movement
Open South Dakota -2.5 (no open tracked)
Current South Dakota -2.5 (Home -108 / Away -112), Total 160.5
Movement Stable at 2.5 with slight juice tilt toward Northern Kentucky
Marginal EV within vig noise; display-only sport tier, no validated edge
FULL ANALYSIS
This is a near-pickem with no form data: N/A records, no injuries listed, no model stack. The market's only real signal is the price itself - Coyotes +120 against a 2.5 spread implies the books see a coin flip, so the only defensible angle is the plus-money home side at a slightly better-than-even implied break-even. Totals at 160.5 lean under given early-season mid-major scoring variance, but totals run 48.7% for us historically.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD South Dakota Coyotes 2.5
+1.2 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE South Dakota Coyotes None
+2.4 EV 56% 0.5u
TOTAL under 160.5
+2.0 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 56%
South Dakota Coyotes 120
  • +120 underdog price implies 45.5% while our near-coin-flip read sits at 52.8%, small positive EV on the underdog side
SPREAD PICK
○ 57%
South Dakota Coyotes 2.5
  • Home cushion in a near-pickem matchup where the market's 2.5 is within our model's no-read band, standard juice keeps cost minimal
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 160.5
  • Early-season mid/low-major openings inflate totals toward 165+ expectations; 160.5 still prices heavy pace we can't verify from either roster
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Coin-flip line means take the plus-money side: Coyotes +120 at ~45.5% implied vs our ~53% read, +2.4 EV on a no-data game
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