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MLB
Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers
Tigers
Minnesota Twins
Twins
Minnesota Twins
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +47.8% EV
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 0.0
"MIN spread +230 has +47.2% EV (sharp 19.5% divergence) vs juiced DET -163; MC 45.4% cover"
EV / $100
+47.2
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-3.6%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Minnesota Twins None
60%
TOTAL under 8.0
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 19.5% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1062 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong away consensus (100% of whale volume).
Whales: away Kalshi: 1 trades Largest: $1062
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +163.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.0
Win Prob
36.9%
ML
171 / -171

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Detroit Tigers

Minnesota Twins

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 124 / -148 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 128 / -142 -
Value Line - 123 / -152 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-330) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-134) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-107)
De-Vigged Fair Value -127 / 127 135 / -135 O/U -100 / -100
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Detroit Tigers

T
Trey Sweeney
(SS) 10-day IL — Sweeney felt discomfort in his right shoulder again Tuesday and is undergoing re-evaluation, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
10-Day-IL
B
Bailey Horn
(RP) 15-day IL — Horn (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment Tuesday at Single-A Lakeland, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
15-Day-IL
K
Kerry Carpenter
(RF) day-to-day — Carpenter (illness) is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Twins.
Day-To-Day
J
Justin Verlander
(SP) 15-day IL — The Tigers placed Verlander on the 15-day injured list Saturday with left hip inflammation, retroactive to Wednesday, Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Scott Effross
(RP) day-to-day — Effross (oblique) will throw a bullpen session Friday, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Tyler Owens
(SP) day-to-day — Owens (hip) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Lakeland on Saturday, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Troy Watson
(SP) day-to-day — Watson is scheduled to begin a throwing program Monday as he works his way back from arthroscopic right elbow surgery, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Beau Brieske
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Brieske (groin) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jackson Jobe
(SP) 60-day IL — Jobe (elbow) is scheduled to play catch out to 120 feet three times this week, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Troy Melton
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers announced Friday that Melton (elbow) has started his throwing program, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Dugan Darnell
(RP) day-to-day — The Tigers announced Sunday that Darnell (hip) has been playing catch five times a week and is also taking part in a running progression, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Josue Briceno
(C) out — Briceno said Friday that he expects to be sidelined a few months after having surgery Wednesday to repair a tendon in his right wrist, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Out
R
Reese Olson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Olson on the 60-day injured list Tuesday following a right shoulder labral repair Feb. 2 that will result in him missing the 2026 season.
60-Day-IL

Minnesota Twins

D
David Festa
(SP) 60-day IL — Festa (shoulder) is about two weeks from beginning to pitch off a mound, Twins General Manager Jeremy Zoll told the Minnesota Star Tribune.
60-Day-IL
D
David Banuelos
(C) Developmental List — Banuelos signed a minor-league contract with Minnesota that includes an invitation to big-league camp, Darren Wolfson of Channel 5 Saint Paul reports.
developmental list
C
Cory Lewis
(SP) day-to-day — Twins head trainer Nick Paparesta said Thursday that Lewis (shoulder) is still a couple weeks away from throwing off a mound, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Travis Adams
(RP) 15-day IL — The Twins placed Adams (triceps) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
J
Julian Merryweather
(RP) day-to-day — The Twins reassigned Merryweather (hamstring) to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day
P
Pablo Lopez
(SP) 60-day IL — The Twins placed Lopez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
M
Matt Canterino
(SP) out — Canterino (shoulder) will be with the Twins in big-league spring training but isn't expected to pitch during camp as he continues to recover from shoulder surgery, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
Out
Game Preview
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-330)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Trey Sweeney 10-Day-IL
Bailey Horn 15-Day-IL
David Festa 60-Day-IL
David Banuelos developmental list
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins

+47.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Minnesota Twins 64% Sharp Lean
"MIN spread +230 has +47.2% EV (sharp 19.5% divergence) vs juiced DET -163; MC 45.4% cover"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -3.6%
Line Movement
Current Detroit Tigers -163 ML / Total 8.0
Movement No movement data
No positive EV on DET ML (-5.2 per $100); massive +47.2 EV on MIN spread +230 at Bovada per +EV analysis
Model: 52.3% win rate | n=352 — Lean spreads/moneylines profitable (59.7%/54.1%); vs DET 10-15, vs MIN 13-14
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp books show 19.5% spread edge to MIN +230 (+47% EV Bovada) vs retail -163 juice; MC even at 46.4% MIN cover despite no edge warning. Recent H2H DET 0-4 spreads/ML, 1-1 totals. Injuries everywhere but Bradley (1.08 ERA, 22K) tilts pitching to MIN.
SHARP MONEY
19.5% sharp edge on spread to MIN side (away covers); strong signal despite public on DET
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Minnesota Twins 0.0
+47.2 EV 64% 1u
MONEYLINE Minnesota Twins None
+1.8 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL under 8.0
+1.2 EV 55%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Minnesota Twins 221
  • MC home win 46.2% vs model-implied 31.1% (ELO 42.5% favors Twins at +221)
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Minnesota Twins 0.0
  • MC sims show 46.2% Twins cover +0.0 vs 45.7% Tigers (0.5% edge), ELO projects Twins +2.1 undervalued at pick'em
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 24.0
  • MC shows 48.0% under 24.0 vs 44.2% over (3.8% edge in low-data sims)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Twins +0.0 (46.2% MC cover edge vs Tigers) in dead even model spot, data too thin for conviction
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