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Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
Jays
Toronto Blue Jays
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +52.6% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
"Rays ML +12.1pp Bayesian edge (54.5% vs 42.4%) + $1.7M extreme whales; Over 7.5 +15.2pp posterior on 10-10 proj scores"
EV / $100
+12.4
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+4.5%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Rays None
55%
TOTAL over 7.5
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.1% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1703011 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 401 trades Kalshi: 147 trades Largest: $78150
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +136.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +15.0
Win Prob
28.4%
ML
252 / -252

Player Props Engine

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Tampa Bay Rays

Toronto Blue Jays

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -131 / 109 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -124 / 113 -
Value Line - -143 / 116 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (330) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (168) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (106)
De-Vigged Fair Value 182 / -182 -119 / 119 O/U 113 / -113
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Tampa Bay Rays

A
Austin Vernon
(RP) day-to-day — The Rays have shut Vernon down from throwing due to right elbow soreness, per MLB.com.
Day-To-Day
T
Ty Johnson
(SP) day-to-day — Triple-A Durham placed Johnson on the 7-day injured list due to a lower-back strain, Sam Dykstra of MLB Pipeline reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Joe Boyle
(SP) 15-day IL — Boyle (elbow) struck out four over two scoreless innings in his first rehab start Wednesday with Triple-A Durham.
15-Day-IL
S
Steven Wilson
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rays placed Wilson (back) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
S
Steven Matz
(SP) 15-day IL — Matz's (elbow) stint on the 15-day injured list is not expected to last long, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
15-Day-IL
L
Logan Driscoll
(C) day-to-day — The Rays released Driscoll (ankle) on Friday, Ryan Bass of FanDuel Sports Network Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Keyshawn Askew
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
R
Ryan Pepiot
(SP) 60-day IL — Pepiot will undergo surgery on his right hip May 13 and miss the rest of the 2026 season, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tre' Morgan
(1B) day-to-day — Triple-A Durham placed Morgan on the 7-day injured list with a quad injury, Sam Dykstra of MLB Pipeline reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Alfredo Zarraga
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
J
John Rooney
(RP) day-to-day — The Rays signed Rooney (elbow) to a minor-league contract Nov. 15.
Day-To-Day
M
Michael Grove
(RP) 60-day IL — Grove (shoulder) is scheduled to face hitters this weekend, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Manuel Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rays placed Rodriguez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
E
Edwin Uceta
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rays transferred Uceta (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
60-Day-IL
T
TJ Nichols
(P) day-to-day — Double-A Montgomery placed Nichols on its 7-day injured list April 7 due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
G
Gavin Lux
(LF) 10-day IL — Lux (shoulder/ankle) is tracking toward a return during the Rays' series in Boston this weekend, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
10-Day-IL

Toronto Blue Jays

A
Addison Barger
(RF) day-to-day — Barger will undergo an MRI on his right elbow after waking up Sunday with limited range of motion, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
S
Shane Bieber
(SP) 60-day IL — Bieber (elbow) will face live hitters Tuesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
60-Day-IL
N
Nathan Lukes
(RF) 10-day IL — Lukes (hamstring) has begun a running progression, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
10-Day-IL
M
Max Scherzer
(SP) 15-day IL — Scherzer was given a cortisone shot in his injured right forearm and will be shut down from throwing for five days, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jose Berrios
(SP) 15-day IL — Blue Jays manager John Schneider said Friday that an MRI on Berrios' right elbow showed inflammation and "small changes to that initial injury with the elbow," Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Geovanny Jesus Planchart
(C) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
C
Chay Yeager
(RP) day-to-day — Yeager will undergo season-ending UCL surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Anthony Santander
(RF) 60-day IL — Toronto transferred Santander (shoulder) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday.
60-Day-IL
C
CJ Stubbs
(C) day-to-day — The Blue Jays signed Stubbs to a minor-league contract Friday that includes an invitation to spring training.
Day-To-Day
L
Lazaro Estrada
(RP) 15-day IL — The Blue Jays placed Estrada on the MLB 15-day injured list April 5 with a right shoulder impingement, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Javen Coleman
(P) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
C
Cody Ponce
(SP) 60-day IL — Ponce underwent surgery Friday to repair the ACL in his right knee, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Bowden Francis
(SP) 60-day IL — The Blue Jays placed Francis (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
Y
Yimi Garcia
(RP) 60-day IL — Garcia (elbow) is expected to begin a rehab assignment in the rookie-level Florida Complex League as soon as Friday, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Alejandro Kirk
(C) 10-day IL — Kirk (thumb) is expected to begin hitting this weekend, Brian Murphy of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
Game Preview
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (330)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Austin Vernon Day-To-Day
Ty Johnson Day-To-Day
Addison Barger Day-To-Day
Shane Bieber 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays

+12.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Tampa Bay Rays 60% Lean
"Rays ML +12.1pp Bayesian edge (54.5% vs 42.4%) + $1.7M extreme whales; Over 7.5 +15.2pp posterior on 10-10 proj scores"
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +4.5%
Line Movement
Current TOR -1.5 -136 / TB +1.5 +115 | ML TOR -136 / TB +113 | Total 7.5 -110
Movement No significant line movement detected
Strong +EV on Rays ML (54.5% posterior vs 42.4% implied); over total +24.5 EV from 65.2% posterior
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion posterior at 54.5% Rays ML vs market 42.4% implied yields +12.1pp edge, confirmed by moderate sharp ML away and extreme $1.7M whale volume (institutional tier, 69% conviction). Total posterior 65.2% over 7.5 massively beats 50% implied amid MC 9.9-9.9 and Omega 11.2-11.2 projections (market total 15pts low). Omega pick'em spread vs TOR -1.5 offers 60% Rays cover; balanced -10% injuries both sides, no pitchers limit conf.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp ML edge 2.3% away + extreme whale volume away overrides spread sharp home signal
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
+12.4 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Rays None
+16.1 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL over 7.5
+24.5 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Tampa Bay Rays 113
  • Bayesian posterior 54.5% Rays win vs market 42.4% implied (+12.1pp edge)
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 and MC margin -0.0 vs market TOR -1.5 (60% Rays cover prob)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 62%
OVER 7.5
  • Posterior 65.2% over 7.5 vs 50% implied (+15.2pp); MC 9.9-9.9, Omega 11.2-11.2
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Rays ML +113 (+16 EV, 12.2pp edge) + Over 7.5 (+24 EV) on 9.9 run MC proj + extreme whales
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