Home › MLB › Milwaukee Brewers @ Miami Marlins
MLB
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers
7 - 5
Final
Miami Marlins
Marlins
Miami Marlins
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Miami Marlins Miami Marlins -1.5
"Marlins -1.5 +52% EV vs Pinnacle fair + extreme $771k whales home, net injury edge +2.8%"
EV / $100
+8.5
Win Prob
55%
Edge
+5.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Miami Marlins None
58%
TOTAL under 8.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Milwaukee Brewers

Miami Marlins

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -115 / -105 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -107 / -103 -
Value Line - -115 / -108 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (385) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (194) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-106)
De-Vigged Fair Value 212 / -212 -102 / 102 O/U 101 / -101
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Milwaukee Brewers

G
Gerson Garabito
(RP) day-to-day — Garabito will be out for four months after undergoing surgery to address a broken bone in his foot, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Craig Yoho
(RP) 15-day IL — Yoho (calf) worked around a walk and a hit batsman to deliver a scoreless inning in his first rehab appearance Sunday with Triple-A Nashville.
15-Day-IL
J
Jackson Chourio
(CF) 10-day IL — Chourio (hand) took some swings Friday for the first time since undergoing left hamate bone surgery, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
10-Day-IL
Q
Quinn Priester
(SP) 15-day IL — Priester (wrist) is tracking toward beginning a rehab assignment with Triple-A Nashville next week, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Christian Yelich
(LF) 10-day IL — Yelich (groin) is expected to be sidelined until mid- to late-May, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Rob Zastryzny
(RP) 60-day IL — Zastryzny (shoulder) was diagnosed with an intercostal strain and will be sidelined until at least late April, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Andrew Vaughn
(1B) 10-day IL — Vaughn will have a follow-up appointment with his hand surgeon Thursday and hopes to be cleared at that time to progress to the next step of his rehab, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jared Koenig
(RP) 15-day IL — Koenig allowed a hit and struck out one over a scoreless inning to earn the save in Thursday's 5-2 win over the Angels.
15-Day-IL
A
Akil Baddoo
(LF) 60-day IL — The Brewers placed Baddoo (quadriceps) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
J.B. Bukauskas
(RP) day-to-day — Bukauskas will undergo surgery on his injured right lat and be sidelined for 9-to-10 months, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day

Miami Marlins

C
Christopher Morel
(LF) 10-day IL — Morel (oblique) is expected to begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Jacksonville during the upcoming week, Kevin Barral of FishonFirst.com reports.
10-Day-IL
E
Esteury Ruiz
(LF) 10-day IL — Ruiz will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Jacksonville on Wednesday, Kevin Barral of FishonFirst.com reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Griffin Conine
(LF) 10-day IL — Conine will undergo a left hamstring tendon excision next week, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Adam Mazur
(SP) 60-day IL — The Marlins placed Mazur (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
R
Ronny Henriquez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Marlins placed Henriquez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jesus Tinoco
(RP) out — The Marlins re-signed Tinoco (elbow) to a minor-league contract Jan. 5.
Out
Box Score
FINAL
Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers
7
-
Miami Marlins
Marlins
5
Miami Marlins -1.5
60% conf
L

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Milwaukee Brewers @ Miami Marlins

+8.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Miami Marlins 60% Lean Calibrated
"Marlins -1.5 +52% EV vs Pinnacle fair + extreme $771k whales home, net injury edge +2.8%"
55% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 55%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +5.0%
Line Movement
Current ML: MIA -115 / MIL -105 | Spread: MIA -1.5 -115 / MIL +1.5 -105 | Total: 8.5 -110
Movement No significant movement
+2.1 EV on home ML at -115; breakeven 53.5%, our prob exceeds by 1.5%
Model: 51.8% win rate | n=552 — MLB 51.8% N=552; vs MIA 50%, vs MIL 57.9%
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharps hold 13.5% edge on Marlins -1.5 (Pinnacle fair away cover 66%), +52% EV at retail; extreme $771k whales (institutional) 66% home. Injuries ding Brewers more (-9.7% vs -6.9%). Low data cap confidence at 60 despite signals.
SHARP MONEY
13.5% sharp edge on spread home (strong), whales extreme $771k home (institutional), +52% EV on home spread vs Pinnacle fair (away 66% cover fair)
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Miami Marlins -1.5
+8.5 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Miami Marlins None
+2.1 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL under 8.5
+1.2 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
Miami Marlins -115
  • Extreme whale volume $771k (15 wallets, institutional tier) on home at 66% consensus
SPREAD PICK
● 60%
Miami Marlins -1.5
  • Pinnacle fair value implies 66% Brewers +1.5 cover, +52% EV on Marlins -1.5 at retail -115
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 8.5
  • Pinnacle fair under 51.5%, totals historically losing (48.7% WR)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Marlins +176 ML +40.8 EV on whale extreme $742k home + Bayesian 51% posterior (edge +4.2%)
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