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Mixed Martial Arts
Djorden Santos
Djorden Santos
Santos
Baisangur Susurkaev
Susurkaev
Baisangur Susurkaev
Full Game Analysis
Mixed Martial Arts
Ω OMEGA PICK
55% Lean
55% Lean
MONEYLINE
Baisangur Susurkaev Baisangur Susurkaev None
"Susurkaev ML (-108 model): $239k extreme whale steam (institutional, 100%) tilts 50/50 matchup +5.2 EV"
EV / $100
+5.2
Win Prob
55%
Edge
+5.0%
Size
0.5u
SPREAD Baisangur Susurkaev -0.5
55%
TOTAL under 2.5
50%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$441021 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (99% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 1 trades Kalshi: 1317 trades Largest: $18451

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Djorden Santos

Baisangur Susurkaev

ELO Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
BAI -100 / DJO -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.

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Djorden Santos @ Baisangur Susurkaev
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Djorden Santos @ Baisangur Susurkaev

+5.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Baisangur Susurkaev 55% Lean
"Susurkaev ML (-108 model): $239k extreme whale steam (institutional, 100%) tilts 50/50 matchup +5.2 EV"
55% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 55%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +5.0%
Line Movement
Current omega_model: ML Home -108 / Away +108, Spread Home -0.5 (-110), Total 2.5 (-110)
Movement N/A (model generated)
+EV on home ML from whale tilt vs even model prior
FULL ANALYSIS
No odds, models, injuries, or stats; Bayesian posterior even at 50/50 home win. Extreme whale signal ($239k volume, institutional tier, 100% home) provides only tilt in 24% data quality spot. Favor ML over spreads/totals per tier performance (ML 54.8% lean WR). Poor calibration forces lean tier max.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume ($239k, institutional tier, 100% confidence) on home despite 0 profitable wallets tracked
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Baisangur Susurkaev None
+5.2 EV 55% 0.5u
SPREAD Baisangur Susurkaev -0.5
+2.1 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL under 2.5
50%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Baisangur Susurkaev -108
  • Extreme $239k institutional whale volume (100% on home) tilts even 50/50 Bayesian posterior
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Baisangur Susurkaev -0.5
  • Whale signal projects home cover in pick'em spot (model spread 0)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 50%
UNDER 2.5
  • Model projects 2.2 expected rounds in standard 3-round ARTS fight
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Extreme $239k whale steam (institutional tier) on Susurkaev in 50/50 model (+3.7 EV home ML -122)
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