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MLB
San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants
Giants
Miami Marlins
Marlins
Miami Marlins
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
57% Lean
57% Lean
MONEYLINE
Miami Marlins Miami Marlins None
"Marlins moneyline at -130: Bayesian fusion gives 56.5% win probability vs 50% fair line, +13.0% EV — lean play due to poor data quality."
EV / $100
+13.0
Win Prob
56%
Edge
+6.5%
Size
0.5u
SPREAD Miami Marlins -1.5
55%
TOTAL under 8.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$120575 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 93 trades Kalshi: 1 trades Largest: $23231

Player Props Engine

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San Francisco Giants

Miami Marlins

OMEGA Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
1.1
Moneyline
MIA -117 / SAN 117
Win Probability
54% - 46%

OMEGA model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.

Injury Report

San Francisco Giants

H
Heliot Ramos
(LF) 10-day IL — Ramos (quadriceps) went 1-for-5 with a walk and a run scored in Triple-A Sacramento's 9-6 win over Oklahoma City on Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
T
Tyler Mahle
(SP) 15-day IL — Mahle (hamstring) allowed one earned run on one hit and five walks while striking out three over three innings in Triple-A Sacramento's 10-1 win over Oklahoma City on Tuesday.
15-Day-IL
J
Jason Foley
(RP) 60-day IL — Foley (shoulder) struck out two over a scoreless inning in a rehab appearance with Triple-A Sacramento on Friday.
60-Day-IL
H
Harrison Bader
(CF) 10-day IL — Bader met with Dr. Robert Anderson on June 5 and received a stem-cell injection to address plantar fasciitis in his left foot, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Keaton Winn
(RP) 15-day IL — The Giants placed Winn on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to a right elbow strain.
15-Day-IL
J
Joel Peguero
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Peguero on the 60-day injured list Monday due to a left hamstring strain, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jared Oliva
(CF) 60-day IL — Oliva (wrist) started at designated hitter and went 2-for-2 with two stolen bases, a double, an RBI and a run scored in Triple-A Sacramento's 6-4 loss to Reno on Saturday.
60-Day-IL
R
Rowan Wick
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Wick (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Hayden Birdsong
(RP) 60-day IL — Birdsong underwent successful UCL reconstruction surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Randy Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Rodriguez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jose Butto
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants transferred Butto (arm) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL

Miami Marlins

J
Janson Junk
(SP) 15-day IL — Junk (shin) was able to throw a light bullpen session earlier this week and could throw a higher-intensity side session in the coming days, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Griffin Conine
(LF) 60-day IL — Conine (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Jacksonville on Tuesday, Stephen Strom of Marlins Radio Network reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Eury Perez
(SP) 15-day IL — Perez (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Jacksonville on Thursday, Stephen Strom of Marlins Radio Network reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Thomas White
(SP) day-to-day — White was diagnosed with a left shoulder capsular sprain Friday and is expected to miss the rest of the season, Isaac Azout of FishOnFirst.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Josh Ekness
(RP) 15-day IL — Marlins manager Clayton McCullough said Monday that Ekness is expected to miss approximately six weeks due to a right calf strain, Kyle Sielaff of Marlins.tv reports.
15-Day-IL
A
Andrew Nardi
(RP) 60-day IL — The Marlins transferred Nardi (ribcage) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
R
Robby Snelling
(SP) 60-day IL — Snelling underwent internal brace surgery Friday to repair a torn UCL in his left elbow.
60-Day-IL
R
Ronny Henriquez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Marlins placed Henriquez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jesus Tinoco
(RP) out — The Marlins re-signed Tinoco (elbow) to a minor-league contract Jan. 5.
Out
A
Adam Mazur
(SP) 60-day IL — The Marlins placed Mazur (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
San Francisco Giants @ Miami Marlins
until first pitch
Key Injuries
Heliot Ramos 10-Day-IL
Tyler Mahle 15-Day-IL
Janson Junk 15-Day-IL
Griffin Conine 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

San Francisco Giants @ Miami Marlins

+13.0 EV
per $100 wagered
Miami Marlins 57% Lean
"Marlins moneyline at -130: Bayesian fusion gives 56.5% win probability vs 50% fair line, +13.0% EV — lean play due to poor data quality."
56% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 56%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +6.5%
Line Movement
No situational flags detected
Model projects 56.5% win probability vs 50% fair line, yielding +13.0% EV per $100 wagered on the Marlins moneyline.
FULL ANALYSIS
No market odds available, so model-implied lines are generated from Bayesian fusion posterior (56.5% home win probability). Injury impact is roughly equal on both sides (-6.9% each). Whale signals show $120K volume on AWAY side (64% confidence), but prediction market consensus (Kalshi) aligns with home at 56.5%. Data quality is poor (44%), so all confidence is capped at 57. The Marlins moneyline at -130 offers +13.0% EV, but this is a lean play only.
SHARP MONEY
Whale signals show $120K volume on AWAY side (64% confidence), but prediction market consensus (Kalshi) aligns with home at 56.5%. No sharp vs public data available. Low confidence due to data quality (44%).
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Miami Marlins None
+13.0 EV 57% 0.5u
SPREAD Miami Marlins -1.5
+5.0 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL under 8.5
+2.0 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 57%
Miami Marlins -130
  • Bayesian fusion posterior gives Marlins 56.5% win probability vs model-implied 50% fair line, generating +13.0% EV
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Miami Marlins -1.5
  • Model projects Marlins win by 1.2 runs on average, making -1.5 a slight stretch but still positive EV given 56.5% win probability
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 8.5
  • Model projects combined 7.8 runs, slightly under 8.5
  • Low confidence due to data quality (44%)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
MC sims say 70.7% under 22.5 total — both teams hit equally by injuries, Poisson projects 20.1 runs, strong under lean at +5.8 EV
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