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MLB
Houston Astros
Houston Astros
Astros
Colorado Rockies
Rockies
Colorado Rockies
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +31.9% EV
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 1.63
"17.1% sharp spread divergence + Pinnacle +31.9% EV on Rockies cover despite Coors chaos"
EV / $100
+3.1
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-3.8%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Colorado Rockies None
60%
TOTAL over 11.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 17.1% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +163.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +12.5
Win Prob
32.5%
ML
208 / -208

Player Props Engine

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Houston Astros

Colorado Rockies

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 136 / -162 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 140 / -156 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-220) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-107) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 11.5 (-101)
De-Vigged Fair Value -101 / 101 148 / -148 O/U 106 / -106
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Houston Astros

H
Hunter Brown
(SP) 15-day IL — Brown has been diagnosed with a Grade 2 right shoulder strain and will be shut down from throwing "for a few weeks."
15-Day-IL
C
Cody Bolton
(RP) day-to-day — Bolton is being sent for precautionary imaging after he was struck by a comebacker during Monday's start against the Rockies, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports. He didn't factor into the decision after allowing two runs on three hits and two walks while striking out five over 4.1 innings.
Day-To-Day
B
Bennett Sousa
(RP) 15-day IL — Sousa (oblique) will throw a live batting practice session next week, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
N
Nate Pearson
(RP) 15-day IL — Pearson (elbow) has progressed to throwing a live batting practice session, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hayden Wesneski
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros transferred Wesneski (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Monday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Josh Hader
(RP) 15-day IL — Hader (biceps) threw a bullpen session Friday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Brandon Walter
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros placed Walter (elbow) on the 60-day injured list.
60-Day-IL
R
Ronel Blanco
(SP) 15-day IL — The Astros placed Blanco (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday'
15-Day-IL
Z
Zach Dezenzo
(LF) 10-day IL — Astros manager Joe Espada said Sunday that Dezenzo won't be part of the Opening Day roster and will remain at extended spring training to rehab his right elbow injury, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Glenn Otto
(RP) day-to-day — The Astros reassigned Otto (shoulder) and Ray Gaither (shoulder) to minor-league camp Tuesday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day

Colorado Rockies

J
Jose Quintana
(SP) 15-day IL — Quintana (hamstring) has resumed playing catch, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Tyler Freeman
(RF) day-to-day — Freeman was scratched from the lineup for Sunday's game against the Phillies due to lower-back tightness.
Day-To-Day
C
Charlie Condon
(OF) day-to-day — The Rockies reassigned Condon to minor-league camp Thursday.
Day-To-Day
M
McCade Brown
(SP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Brown (shoulder) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
R
RJ Petit
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Petit (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Pierson Ohl
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Ohl (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Case Williams
(SP) day-to-day — Williams is currently slowed by a stress reaction in his right triceps, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Brayan Castillo
(RP) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Castillo is dealing with right lat tightness and has been shut down from throwing while undergoing treatment for the injury, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Thomas
(CF) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Thomas hasn't been participating in spring training while he recovers from offseason surgery to address a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Kris Bryant
(DH) 60-day IL — Bryant said Tuesday that the ongoing pain in his back continues to prevent him from participating in baseball activities, though he's still consulting with doctors and trainers for potential rehab options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jeff Criswell
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Criswell (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Houston Astros @ Colorado Rockies
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-220)
Total Over 11.5
Key Injuries
Hunter Brown 15-Day-IL
Cody Bolton Day-To-Day
Jose Quintana 15-Day-IL
Tyler Freeman Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Houston Astros @ Colorado Rockies

+3.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Colorado Rockies 64% Sharp Lean
"17.1% sharp spread divergence + Pinnacle +31.9% EV on Rockies cover despite Coors chaos"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -3.8%
Line Movement
Current HOU -163 / COL +135 / Total 11.5
Movement No movement data
No positive EV on Astros ML per MC/Pinnacle fair value; sharp +EV on Rockies spread at Bovada +165 (31.9%)
Model: 52.3% win rate | n=352 — MLB 184-168 (52.3%) N=352; reduce 55-62 Lean confidence due to +6.8 overconfidence gap; moneylines profitable in Lean/Strong tiers
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money crushing Astros spread pricing (17.1% divergence) with Pinnacle fair value +31.9% EV on Rockies cover; omega sees dead-even 12-12 at Coors despite -163 juice. Yesterday Astros 0-2 ATS vs COL but over cashed—model total 24.0 crushed by market vig. Lean Rockies +1.63 with sharp confirmation.
SHARP MONEY
17.1% sharp edge on spread favoring Rockies (away cover), strong signal despite public on Astros
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Colorado Rockies 1.63
+3.1 EV 64% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Colorado Rockies None
+1.8 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL over 11.5
+1.2 EV 58%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Houston Astros -236
  • Model win prob 46.3% but -236 odds require 70% breakeven; slight MC edge to Astros 45.8% win vs home 46.3%
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Colorado Rockies 0.0
  • MC sims show 46.3% home cover vs 45.8% away on even line; ELO projects Astros -3.4 but Poisson neutralizes at Coors
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 24.0
  • MC shows 47.4% under vs 44.9% over on 24.0 total despite Coors; model calibration shows losing totals across tiers
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Even Coors matchup MC 46/46 win probs; slight Astros lean via 11-4 model history but PASS heavy ML juice
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