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MLB
Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers
Tigers
3 - 4
Final
Kansas City Royals
Royals
Kansas City Royals
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 1.5
"Tigers +1.5 +124: Pinnacle 61% cover vs retail 44% implied (+37 EV), extreme $200k whales confirm"
EV / $100
+37.1
Win Prob
61%
Edge
+11.2%
Size
1.0u
MONEYLINE Kansas City Royals None
60%
TOTAL under 8.5
57%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Detroit Tigers

Kansas City Royals

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -145 / 122 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -138 / 127 -
Value Line - -159 / 128 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (290) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (151) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-106)
De-Vigged Fair Value 160 / -160 -133 / 133 O/U -100 / -100
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Detroit Tigers

J
Justin Verlander
(SP) 15-day IL — Verlander (hip) will throw a live batting practice session Saturday, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
W
Will Vest
(RP) 15-day IL — Vest (forearm) received a cortisone injection Friday, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Troy Watson
(SP) day-to-day — Watson is scheduled to begin a throwing program Monday as he works his way back from arthroscopic right elbow surgery, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Casey Mize
(SP) 15-day IL — The Tigers placed Mize on the 15-day injured list Wednesday due to a right adductor strain.
15-Day-IL
B
Beau Brieske
(RP) 60-day IL — Brieske (adductor) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Lakeland on Tuesday, Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Connor Seabold
(RP) 15-day IL — Detroit moved Seabold to the 15-day IL on Sunday due to left ankle inflammation, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Trey Sweeney
(SS) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Sweeney (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tarik Skubal
(SP) 15-day IL — Skubal could return in as little as 4-to-6 weeks following surgery Wednesday to remove a loose body from his left elbow, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Reese Olson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Olson on the 60-day injured list Tuesday after he underwent a right shoulder labral repair Feb. 2 that will result in him missing the 2026 season.
60-Day-IL
T
Troy Melton
(RP) 60-day IL — Melton (elbow) yielded two runs (one earned) on two hits and no walks while striking out two batters over 1.2 innings in his rehab start Sunday with Single-A Lakeland.
60-Day-IL
P
Parker Meadows
(CF) 60-day IL — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said that Meadows underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a left radius fracture and will be sidelined "multiple months," Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
F
Framber Valdez
(SP) Suspension — Valdez's six-game suspension was reduced to five games Wednesday, Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
suspension
B
Bailey Horn
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Horn (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
D
Dugan Darnell
(RP) day-to-day — The Tigers announced Sunday that Darnell (hip) has been playing catch five times a week and is also taking part in a running progression, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Javier Baez
(SS) 10-day IL — The Tigers placed Baez on the 10-day injured list Wednesday with a right ankle sprain.
10-Day-IL

Kansas City Royals

C
Cole Ragans
(SP) 15-day IL — The Royals placed Ragans on the 15-day injured list Friday, retroactive to May 7, due to a left elbow impingement.
15-Day-IL
A
Anthony Simonelli
(SP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
J
Javier Vaz
(2B) day-to-day — Vaz (fingers) has produced a .238/.304/.262 slash line with zero home runs and three stolen bases in 10 games since being activated from Double-A Northwest Arkansas' 7-day injured list April 22.
Day-To-Day
T
Tyson Guerrero
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
J
Jonathan India
(2B) 10-day IL — The Royals announced Tuesday that India underwent season-ending surgery to repair the labrum in his left shoulder.
10-Day-IL
C
Carlos Estevez
(RP) 15-day IL — Estevez (foot) was diagnosed with a right rotator cuff strain Thursday, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Bailey Falter
(RP) 15-day IL — Falter (elbow) allowed no hits or walks with two strikeouts across 1.1 scoreless innings with Triple-A Omaha on Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
J
James McArthur
(RP) 60-day IL — The Royals transferred McArthur (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday.
60-Day-IL
A
Alec Marsh
(SP) 60-day IL — The Royals placed Marsh (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
Box Score
FINAL
Detroit Tigers
Tigers
3
-
Kansas City Royals
Royals
4
Detroit Tigers 1.5
65% conf
W

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals

+37.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Detroit Tigers 65% Sharp Lean
"Tigers +1.5 +124: Pinnacle 61% cover vs retail 44% implied (+37 EV), extreme $200k whales confirm"
61% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 61%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +11.2%
Line Movement
Current Royals -1.5 -149 / Tigers +1.5 +124
Movement No significant line movement detected
Equal injury impact (-9.7% home, -8.7% away) Multiple pitcher injuries/suspensions both sides
Massive +EV on Tigers +1.5 vs Market Consensus fair value (away cover 61.2% vs retail implied ~44%)
FULL ANALYSIS
DraftKings run line -1.5 -149 implies 59.8% Royals cover but Pinnacle fair 38.8% (Tigers 61.2%), +37 EV at +124 on Tigers RL. Extreme institutional whales ($200k vol, 68% conf) pile away despite sharp % divergence home spread. Pitcher injuries equal (-9%) cap total at 8.5, recent H2H unders 0-1.
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Detroit Tigers 1.5
+37.1 EV 65% 1.0u
MONEYLINE Kansas City Royals None
+0.1 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL under 8.5
+1.2 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
Kansas City Royals -149
  • Bayesian posterior 59.8% matches market implied, marginal edge in profitable ML tier
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Detroit Tigers 1.5
  • Pinnacle fair value gives Tigers 61.2% cover prob vs DraftKings implied 44%, +37 EV at +124
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 57%
UNDER 8.5
  • Pitcher injuries both teams (Ragans DTD, Valdez susp) suppress scoring; totals historically losing
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Tigers ML +9.4% edge (51% model vs 42% Kalshi) + $184k extreme whales; 77% MC under 22.5
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