WNBA
Atlanta Dream
Dream
Dallas Wings
Wings
Whale Activity Detected
$25005 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Strong away consensus (100% of whale volume).
Whales: away
Polymarket: 13 trades
Largest: $1923
Ω OMEGA LINE
OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
-2.5
Total
179.0
Edge: -2.5
Win Prob
61.5%
ML
-160 / 160
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAAtlanta Dream
Dallas Wings
ELO Model Lines
MODELSpread
7.1
Moneyline
DAL -277
/
ATL 277
Win Probability
73%
-
27%
ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Atlanta Dream @ Dallas Wings
+4.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Dallas Wings
58%
Lean
"Wings +120 ML +10.2pp Bayesian edge (55.6% posterior vs 45.5% implied), MC 65% home win, net injury boost"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
56%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+5.6%
Line Movement
Open
No open line provided
Current
Spread: Atlanta Dream -2.5 (Dallas Wings +2.5 -115 / Atlanta Dream -2.5 -105); Total: 181.5; ML: Dallas Wings +120 / Atlanta Dream -142
Movement
No significant movement
+10.2pp edge on home ML at +120 exceeds breakeven by 10pp; under at 181.5 has +10pp edge
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega/MC see 56-65% home win/cover value vs market's 45% implied on +120 ML, backed by +3.4% net injury edge and 90.8-88.1 proj total under market 181.5. Whale $25k away is contrarian flag reducing conf. Decomposed ratings inflate total to 203 but Poisson anchors low.
SHARP MONEY
Strong whale volume ($25k) 100% on away Atlanta contradicts model home lean; reduce confidence
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
56%
Dallas Wings 120
- Bayesian posterior 55.6% home (edge +10.2pp over 45.5% implied); exceeds breakeven 45.5% by 10pp
SPREAD PICK
○
58%
Dallas Wings 2.5
- MC sim 59.7% home covers +2.5 with HIGH edge conf; Bayesian posterior fused to 55.6% home value
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
58%
UNDER 181.5
- Posterior 60% under (edge +10pp); omega total 179 vs market 181.5
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Dallas +120 gets +6.5pp injury edge (Jones OUT) vs -142 road fave, +7.4 EV despite whales
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