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MLB
Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves
Braves
Colorado Rockies
Rockies
Colorado Rockies
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +29.1% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves -1.5
"Coors O11 vs 22.5 model total, 65.2% over posterior +15.2pp edge +24 EV"
EV / $100
+2.1
Win Prob
64%
Edge
+13.5%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Atlanta Braves None
60%
TOTAL over 11.0
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 16.7% divergence on spread with strong signal. RLM detected on spread.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$350195 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong away consensus (84% of whale volume).
Whales: away Polymarket: 122 trades Kalshi: 1 trades Largest: $23310
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +194.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +11.5
Win Prob
31.4%
ML
219 / -219

Player Props Engine

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Atlanta Braves

Colorado Rockies

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 153 / -185 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 157 / -176 -
Value Line - 160 / -200 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-190) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (105) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 11.0 (-105)
De-Vigged Fair Value 111 / -111 167 / -167 O/U 102 / -102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Atlanta Braves

M
Michael Harris II
(CF) day-to-day — Harris is out of the lineup for Thursday's game against the Tigers.
Day-To-Day
S
Sean Murphy
(C) 10-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Thursday that Murphy (hip) will likely rejoin the club for its series early next week in Seattle, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Raisel Iglesias
(RP) 15-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Wednesday that Iglesias (shoulder) could be reinstated from the 15-day injured list when first eligible next Tuesday, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Spencer Strider
(SP) 15-day IL — Strider (oblique) will return from the 15-day injured list to start Sunday's game against the Rockies at Coors Field, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Spencer Schwellenbach
(SP) 60-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Tuesday that Schwellenbach (elbow) has yet to begin a throwing program and will not make his season debut until after the All-Star break, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Hurston Waldrep
(SP) 15-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Tuesday that Waldrep (elbow) will throw a bullpen session in about a week and could be ready to rejoin the team in June, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Ha-Seong Kim
(SS) 10-day IL — Kim (finger) will begin a rehab assignment with Double-A Columbus this week, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
10-Day-IL
D
Dylan Dodd
(RP) 15-day IL — Atlanta will place Dodd on the 15-day injured list Thursday with a back strain, Barrett Sallee of 680 The Fan Atlanta reports.
15-Day-IL
D
Danny Young
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta transferred Young (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Burkhalter
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
A
AJ Smith-Shawver
(SP) 60-day IL — Atlanta placed Smith-Shawver (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Friday.
60-Day-IL
J
Joey Wentz
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta placed Wentz on the 60-day injured list Tuesday with a right ACL tear.
60-Day-IL
J
Jurickson Profar
(LF) Suspension — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
Suspension
J
Joe Jimenez
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss acknowledged Wednesday that he's uncertain if Jimenez (knee) will be available to pitch at any point in 2026, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL

Colorado Rockies

R
Ryan Feltner
(SP) 15-day IL — The Rockies placed Feltner on the 15-day injured list Friday with right ulnar nerve inflammation.
15-Day-IL
J
Jeff Criswell
(RP) 60-day IL — Criswell (elbow) will face live hitters over the weekend and begin a rehab assignment shortly thereafter, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
McCade Brown
(SP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Brown (shoulder) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
R
RJ Petit
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Petit (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Pierson Ohl
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Ohl (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Case Williams
(SP) day-to-day — Williams is currently slowed by a stress reaction in his right triceps, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Brayan Castillo
(RP) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Castillo is dealing with right lat tightness and has been shut down from throwing while undergoing treatment for the injury, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Thomas
(CF) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Thomas hasn't been participating in spring training while he recovers from offseason surgery to address a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Kris Bryant
(DH) 60-day IL — Bryant said Tuesday that the ongoing pain in his back continues to prevent him from participating in baseball activities, though he's still consulting with doctors and trainers for potential rehab options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-190)
Total Over 11.0
Key Injuries
Michael Harris II Day-To-Day
Sean Murphy 10-Day-IL
Ryan Feltner 15-Day-IL
Jeff Criswell 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies

+2.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Atlanta Braves 60% Lean
"Coors O11 vs 22.5 model total, 65.2% over posterior +15.2pp edge +24 EV"
64% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 64%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +13.5%
Line Movement
Current ML Rockies +159 / Braves -194, Spread Braves -1.5 -194, Total 11.0
Movement No significant line movement detected
Coors Field altitude +35% over bias Equal injury impact -8.7% both sides No pitchers: high variance
Slight edge vs devigged ML but vigged -194 yields neg EV; monitor for steam
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega line pick'em spread/ML vs market -194 Braves juice shows inefficiency, posterior 63.5% ATL slight edge but neg vigged EV. Total 11.0 obliterated by 22.5 omega/Coors +35% bias, 65.2% over posterior +24 EV. Extreme $350k whale/PM/sharp convergence on ATL but totals our durable spot w/ MC 10-9.9 proj.
SHARP MONEY
16.7% sharp edge on spread away + RLM yes; weak 0.1% on ML away
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Atlanta Braves -1.5
+2.1 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Atlanta Braves None
-3.8 EV 60%
TOTAL over 11.0
+24.4 EV 62% 1.0u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
Atlanta Braves -194
  • Posterior 63.5% vs devigged 61.4% +2.1pp edge, confirmed by whales/PM/sharps
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Atlanta Braves -1.5
  • Bayesian posterior aligns with sharp 52.7% fair away cover vs retail juice
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 62%
OVER 11.0
  • Posterior 65.2% over vs market 50% +15.2pp; omega 22.5 total, Coors +35%
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Coors model 22.5 total vs 11.0 market = +21.5 EV over; Rockies +1.5 value vs -199 shaded fave (+28 EV)
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