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NFL
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals
Cardinals
33 - 30
Final
Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys
Full Game Analysis
NFL
Ω DDN SI PICK LATE TO MARKET
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Dallas Cowboys Dallas Cowboys -7.0
"Model says Cowboys by 13.5, market says 7 — take Dallas -7.0 at -118 with the key-number buy plus a half-unit over 54.5, skipping the -340 moneyline"
EV / $100
+8.4
Win Prob
88%
Edge
+10.7%
Size
1.5u
MONEYLINE Dallas Cowboys None
50%
TOTAL over 54.5
60%
Full DDN SI Breakdown
DDN SI LINE DDN SI Independent Projection
Spread
-13.5
Edge: -6.5
Total
60.0
Edge: +5.5
Win Prob
88.0%
ML
-734 / 734
⚠
Key Number Alert
KEY NUMBER: Spread at -7.0 — 9.2% of NFL games land on 7. Buying the half point is worth ~4.6% win probability. Pay up to -120 for the buy. OMEGA line (-13.5) disagrees by 6.5 pts — added value in the half-point buy.

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Arizona Cardinals

Dallas Cowboys

Box Score + DDN SI Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -320 / 260 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -344 / 292 -
Value Line - -180 / 230 -
Sharp Action Best Line -7.0 (-112) - -
Market Consensus -7.5 (-105) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 54.5 (-110)
Market Consensus - - Over 54.5 (-108)
De-Vigged Fair Value -100 / -100 -323 / 323 O/U -102 / 102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Arizona Cardinals

T
Trey McBride
(TE) active — McBride hauled in seven of eight targets for 72 yards and one touchdown during Sunday's 33-30 overtime victory at Dallas.
Active
T
Tyler Allgeier
(RB) active — Allgeier reeled off 147 yards and one touchdown on 11 carries and gathered in all five targets for 44 yards and one more TD during Sunday's 33-30 overtime win in Dallas.
Active
M
Michael Wilson
(WR) questionable — Wilson said after Sunday's 33-30 win at Dallas that he suffered two broken ribs during the contest, Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com reports.
Questionable
J
Jeremiyah Love
(RB) questionable — Love (ankle) was ruled out for Sunday's game against the Cowboys to begin the second half, Alex Weiner of ArizonaSports.com reports.
Questionable
J
Jayden Williams
(OT) questionable — Williams (knee) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's game against the Cowboys, Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official site reports.
Questionable
B
Bam Knight
(RB) questionable — Knight (concussion) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's game against the Cowboys.
Questionable
K
Kendrick Bourne
(WR) questionable — Bourne won't return to Sunday's contest at Dallas due to a right high-ankle sprain, Theo Mackie of The Arizona Republic reports.
Questionable
M
Max Melton
(CB) active — Melton (knee) is active for Sunday's game against the Cowboys, Darren Urban of the team's official site reports.
Active
A
Andrew Wingard
(S) active — Wingard (knee) is active for Sunday's game versus the Cowboys, Darren Urban of the team's official site reports.
Active
C
Carson Beck
(QB) out — Beck (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game in Dallas, though he will be available as the team's QB3, Darren Urban of the team's official site reports.
Out
W
Walter Nolen III
(DT) out — inactive
Out
A
Albert Reese IV
(OT) out — inactive
Out
S
Starling Thomas V
(CB) out — inactive
Out
E
Evan Hull
(RB) out — inactive
Out
E
Eku Leota
(LB) out — inactive
Out
J
Jon Gaines II
(G) out — inactive
Out
H
Hjalte Froholdt
(C) active
Active
K
Kenny Yeboah
(TE) active — The Cardinals elevated Yeboah from the practice squad to the active roster Saturday, Darren Urban of the team's official site reports.
Active
M
Mack Wilson Sr.
(LB) active — Wilson (knee) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Cowboys, Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com reports.
Active
E
Elijah Wilkinson
(OT) active
Active
K
Kei'Trel Clark
(CB) active
Active
Z
Zaven Collins
(LB) active
Active
B
Budda Baker
(S) active — Baker logged two tackles (one solo) during Sundays' 30-16 loss to Denver.
Active
J
Jack Gibbens
(LB) active — Gibbens recorded seven tackles (four solo) in a 30-16 loss to the Broncos on Sunday.
Active
J
Jalen Brooks
(WR) Injured Reserve — The Cardinals placed Brooks (wrist) on injured reserve Tuesday.
Injured Reserve

Dallas Cowboys

D
Dak Prescott
(QB) active — Prescott was 19-for-29 passing for 195 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions while rushing seven times for 20 yards and one more TD during Sunday's 33-30 overtime defeat to the Cardinals.
Active
G
George Pickens
(WR) active — Pickens tallied two catches (on four targets) for 48 yards during Sunday's 33-30 overtime loss to the Cardinals.
Active
J
Javonte Williams
(RB) active — Williams churned out 56 yards on 24 carries and notched one catch (on two targets) for one yard during Sunday's 33-30 overtime defeat to the Cardinals.
Active
C
CeeDee Lamb
(WR) active — Lamb recorded seven catches (on 11 targets) for 58 yards during Sunday's 33-30 overtime loss to the Cardinals.
Active
J
Jake Ferguson
(TE) questionable — Ferguson suffered a low-ankle sprain during Sunday's loss to the Cardinals, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN reports.
Questionable
C
Caleb Downs
(S) questionable — Downs has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's game against the Cardinals to be evaluated for a concussion, Jon Machota of The Athletic reports.
Questionable
J
Joey Porter Jr.
(CB) active
Active
P
P.J. Locke
(S) active — Locke (foot) is active for Sunday's game against the Cardinals.
Active
K
Kenny Clark
(DT) active — Clark (back) is active for Sunday's game against the Cardinals.
Active
L
Luke Schoonmaker
(TE) out — Schoomaker (groin) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Cardinals.
Out
K
KaVontae Turpin
(WR) out — inactive
Out
T
Tyrus Wheat
(LB) out — inactive
Out
D
Dee Winters
(LB) out — inactive
Out
S
Shavon Revel Jr.
(CB) out — inactive
Out
D
Drew Shelton
(OT) out — inactive
Out
J
James Mitchell
(TE) active — The Cowboys elevated Mitchell from the practice squad to the active roster Saturday.
Active
Q
Quinnen Williams
(DT) active — Williams (hamstring) is set to play Sunday against Arizona, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Active
J
Jonathan Bullard
(DT) Injured Reserve — Bullard (calf) was designated to return from injured reserve by the Cowboys on Thursday.
Injured Reserve
B
Brandon Aubrey
(PK) active — Aubrey made all three of his field-goal attempts and all three PAT tries in Monday's 38-21 win over the Eagles.
Active
D
DeMarvion Overshown
(LB) active — Overshown posted six tackles (five solo) and two pass defenses (including one interception) during the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday.
Active
T
Tyler Goodson
(RB) active — Goodson turned 10 carries into 38 yards and returned two kickoffs for 42 yards during the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday.
Active
B
Brevyn Spann-Ford
(TE) active — Spann-Ford finished with two catches for 11 yards on two targets in Monday's 38-21 win over the Eagles.
Active
R
Ryan Flournoy
(WR) active — Flournoy secured all four targets for 70 yards in the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday night.
Active
M
Marist Liufau
(LB) Injured Reserve — Liufau (forearm) has been downgraded from questionable to out ahead of Monday night's game against the Eagles.
Injured Reserve
C
Cobie Durant
(CB) active — Durant (hamstring) does not have an injury designation for Monday's game against Philadelphia, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports.
Active
Box Score
FINAL
Arizona Cardinals
Cardinals
33
-
Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys
30
Dallas Cowboys -7.0
65% conf
L

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Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys

+8.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Dallas Cowboys 65% Sharp Lean
"Model says Cowboys by 13.5, market says 7 — take Dallas -7.0 at -118 with the key-number buy plus a half-unit over 54.5, skipping the -340 moneyline"
88% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 88%
Book Implied 77%
Edge +10.7%
Line Movement
Open unavailable
Current Cowboys -7.0, total 54.5, ML -340/+270 (DraftKings)
Movement No movement data supplied
Model sees +10.7pp edge on Dallas moneyline, but -340 (breakeven 77.3%) is beyond our juiced-favorite rule (> -250): we PASS on ML despite positive raw EV and take the spread instead at 1.4x better price
FULL ANALYSIS
OMEGA's independent line is 6.5 points clearer than the market here — Dallas projects to a -13.5 spread and 88% win probability vs the -7.0/-340 being offered, with decomposed ratings printing a 61.3 total against a listed 54.5. The play is the spread, not the moneyline: -340 breaks our juiced-favorite rule, while -7.0 at -118 with the key-number 7 and a half-point buy available preserves most of the edge at 1.4x better price. Over 54.5 is a secondary lean; in a dome with Dallas EWMA offensive form at 26.4, both quantitative scoring models clear the number by 5.5+, but totals are our weakest market (48.7% historical WR) so this stays a half-unit look. Injury cascades cut both ways — Ferguson/Schoonmaker out hurts Dallas's short-yardage, while Arizona's WR/TE depletion pushes them into checkdown mode against a projected 36.7-point cowork ceiling.
Recommended Sizing
1.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

DDN SI Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Dallas Cowboys -7.0
+8.4 EV 65% 1.5u
MONEYLINE Dallas Cowboys None
50%
TOTAL over 54.5
+4.4 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 50%
Dallas Cowboys -340
  • Model probability (88.0%) sits above the 77.3% breakeven, but -340 breaches the hard juiced-favorite rule (> -250 requires PASS): one loss erases 3.4 wins and WR-maximization beats win-rate chasing
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Dallas Cowboys -7.0
  • OMEGA independent line (-13.5, 88% win prob) sits 6.5 points clearer than the -7.0 market, and the number sits on the key 7 (9.2% of NFL games land there, half-point buy worth ~4.6% win probability)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 54.5
  • OMEGA projects a 60.0 expected total and decomposed ratings say 61.3 vs the 54.5 market — 5.5-6.8 points of combined scoring model edge
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
OMEGA has Dallas by 13.5 vs market -7.0 (+6.5 gap) and model total 60 vs posted 54.5 — all picks low-confidence (56-60) in an unvalidated display sport with no sharp confirmation.
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