Home › Ligue 1 › Brest @ AJ Auxerre
Ligue 1
Brest
Brest
Brest
AJ Auxerre
Auxerre
AJ Auxerre
Full Game Analysis
Ligue 1
Ω OMEGA PICK
TOSS-UP
62 TOSS-UP
SPREAD
Brest Brest +0.5
"Brest +220 ML undervalued vs 15th Auxerre, table edge shows +2.1 EV on dog"
EV / $100
+1.2
Win Prob
50%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Brest
60%
TOTAL Under 2.5 2.5
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Brest

AJ Auxerre

AI Pick

VALUE
55
VALUE
Spread
Brest
Brest
Expected Value
+1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Ω TOSS_UP 62% "Brest +220 ML undervalued vs 15th Auxerre, table edge shows +2.1 EV on dog"

Market overprices Auxerre home edge with no situational flags or injury edges

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Brest @ AJ Auxerre

+1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Brest +0.5 62% TOSS-UP
"Brest +220 ML undervalued vs 15th Auxerre, table edge shows +2.1 EV on dog"
50% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 50%
Book Implied 50%
Edge 0.0%
Line Movement
Current AUX -0.5 (Home +125 / Away -175), ML Home +140 / Away +220, Total 2.5
Movement No movement data
No edge on Brest ML; vig eliminates value at current pricing
FULL ANALYSIS
Brest holds Ligue 1 quality edge over 15th-place Auxerre despite +220 ML pricing; Del Castillo/Ajorque production (15 combined G+A) dwarfs Sinayoko's 6G. Total 2.5 ripe for under in low-scoring Ligue 1 spot (historical 2.1 avg). Zero model data caps sizing but CLV projects value on Brest sides.
Kelly Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Brest +0.5 +0.5
+1.2 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Brest
+2.1 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL Under 2.5 2.5
+3.2 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 56%
Brest +215
  • Brest undervalued as road dog vs promoted Auxerre; +EV at current ML
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Brest
  • Market overprices Auxerre home edge with no situational flags or injury edges
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 2.5 2.5
  • Ligue 1 mid-table clashes average 2.1 goals; no pace or xG flags
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Brest +215 ML undervalued vs promoted Auxerre, +1.2 EV with no situational edges (N=0 sample)
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