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MLB
San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants
Giants
Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +47.2% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
"Phillies RL sharp edge 15.1% + Bayesian 63% home ML alignment despite 0 EV chalk, under on ace ERAs (2.55/2.94)"
EV / $100
+1.8
Win Prob
63%
Edge
+13.1%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Philadelphia Phillies None
62%
TOTAL under 8.0
57%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 15.1% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$191019 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 159 trades Kalshi: 3 trades Largest: $8646

Player Props Engine

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San Francisco Giants

Philadelphia Phillies

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -174 / 143 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -166 / 149 -
Value Line - -177 / 143 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (250) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (129) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-103)
De-Vigged Fair Value 138 / -138 -158 / 158 O/U 104 / -104
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

San Francisco Giants

J
Jose Butto
(RP) 60-day IL — Butto underwent surgery Saturday to repair an artery in his right arm, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Daniel Susac
(C) 10-day IL — The Giants placed Susac on the 10-day injured list Tuesday with an elbow injury, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jared Oliva
(CF) 10-day IL — Oliva underwent left hamate bone surgery Thursday in Los Angeles, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
S
Sam Hentges
(RP) 15-day IL — Hentges (knee/shoulder) struck out one in a scoreless inning during Triple-A Sacramento's 7-6 win over Tacoma on Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
H
Harrison Bader
(CF) 10-day IL — Bader has been dealing with a minor left hamstring injury since spring training, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Joel Peguero
(RP) 15-day IL — Peguero (hamstring) earned a hold and struck out two in a scoreless inning during Triple-A Sacramento's 5-3 win over Las Vegas on Tuesday.
15-Day-IL
J
Jason Foley
(RP) 60-day IL — Foley (shoulder) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Hayden Birdsong
(RP) 60-day IL — Birdsong underwent successful UCL reconstruction surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reiver Sanmartin
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Sanmartin (hip) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
R
Rowan Wick
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Wick (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Randy Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Rodriguez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL

Philadelphia Phillies

J
Jonathan Bowlan
(RP) 15-day IL — Bowlan (groin) is set to begin a minor-league rehab assignment with Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Saturday.
15-Day-IL
J
J.T. Realmuto
(C) 10-day IL — The Phillies placed Realmuto on the 10-day injured list Wednesday due to back spasms, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
10-Day-IL
M
Max Lazar
(RP) 60-day IL — The Phillies transferred Lazar (oblique) to the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jhoan Duran
(RP) 15-day IL — Duran struck out one in a perfect ninth inning Saturday to record his fifth save of the season in a 4-3 win over the Diamondbacks.
15-Day-IL
Z
Zach Pop
(RP) 15-day IL — Pop is slated to serve as the Phillies' opening pitcher in Sunday's game against the Diamondbacks, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
15-Day-IL
D
Daniel Robert
(RP) day-to-day — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Keaton Anthony
(1B) day-to-day — Anthony suffered a fractured toe after fouling a ball off his foot during Monday's Grapefruit League game versus the Red Sox, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Andrew Bechtold
(3B) day-to-day — Bechtold signed a minor-league contract with the Blue Jays on Dec. 1.
Day-To-Day
J
Johan Rojas
(CF) Suspension — MLB announced Monday that Rojas has been suspended 80 games for violating the league's policy against performance-enhancing drugs, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
suspension
M
Michael Mercado
(RP) day-to-day — The Phillies reassigned Mercado (shoulder) to minor-league camp Thursday, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mark Kolozsvary
(C) day-to-day — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Christian McGowan
(RP) out — McGowan will miss the remainder of the season following Tommy John surgery, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
Out
Game Preview
San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (250)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Jose Butto 60-Day-IL
Daniel Susac 10-Day-IL
Jonathan Bowlan 15-Day-IL
J.T. Realmuto 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies

+1.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Philadelphia Phillies 60% Lean
"Phillies RL sharp edge 15.1% + Bayesian 63% home ML alignment despite 0 EV chalk, under on ace ERAs (2.55/2.94)"
63% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 63%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +13.1%
Line Movement
Current Phillies -1.5 -171 / Giants +1.5 +141 | Total 8.0 | ML Phillies -171 / Giants +141
Movement No significant movement
Injury impact: Phillies -8.7% > Giants -6.9% (net away edge -1.8%)
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian posterior pegs Phillies ML at 63.1% matching DK implied for 0 EV but sharp 15.1% spread edge home overrides whale away ($191k extreme vol at weak 51% conf). Sanchez 2.94/43K + Roupp 2.55 ERAs project under 8 vs 50.9% fair, injuries hit Phillies harder (-1.8% net). Degraded data caps conf, spreads Lean tier profitable 57.5%.
SHARP MONEY
Strong 15.1% sharp edge on Phillies spread (overrides moderate ML away signal); default to Pinnacle efficiency over whales
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
+1.8 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Philadelphia Phillies None
62%
TOTAL under 8.0
+1.2 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 62%
Philadelphia Phillies -171
  • Bayesian posterior fuses to 63.1% matching market, breakeven but confirmed by cross-market home signals
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
  • Strong sharp divergence 15.1% on Phillies RL + +EV at select retail books vs Pinnacle fair 42%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 57%
UNDER 8.0
  • Pitchers Sanchez (2.94 ERA, 43 K) + Roupp (2.55 ERA) vs Pinnacle fair under 50.9%
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Giants PK (56.8% model vs 52% implied) + extreme whales $182k amid high MC agreement
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