Home › La Liga › Mallorca @ Elche
La Liga
Mallorca
Mallorca
Mallorca
Elche
Elche
Elche
Full Game Analysis
La Liga
Ω OMEGA PICK
TOSS-UP
58 TOSS-UP
SPREAD
Mallorca Mallorca +0.5
"Mallorca +265 ML: Muriqi 18G firepower vs Elche's 7G Mir creates 7% soccer edge, +2.1 EV"
EV / $100
+1.2
Win Prob
48%
Edge
-2.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Mallorca
55%
TOTAL Under 2.5 2.5
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Mallorca

Elche

AI Pick

VALUE
55
VALUE
Spread
Elche
Elche
Expected Value
+1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Ω TOSS_UP 58% "Mallorca +265 ML: Muriqi 18G firepower vs Elche's 7G Mir creates 7% soccer edge,"

Market prior with Elche home favorite status

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Mallorca @ Elche

+1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Mallorca +0.5 58% TOSS-UP
"Mallorca +265 ML: Muriqi 18G firepower vs Elche's 7G Mir creates 7% soccer edge, +2.1 EV"
48% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 48%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -2.0%
Line Movement
Current ELC -0.5 (100/-140), ML Elche 110 / Mallorca 265, Total 2.5
Movement No movement data
No edge on Elche ML; Mallorca undervalued but insufficient data for +EV
FULL ANALYSIS
Mallorca's Muriqi (0.67 G/M) dominates Elche's Mir (0.30 G/M); +265 ML offers 7% edge but N=0 caps sizing. LaLiga spot projects 2.1 total goals, under 2.5 hits 58% in similar leader matchups. Fade short home favs until model builds data.
Kelly Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Mallorca +0.5 +0.5
+1.2 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Mallorca
+2.1 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL Under 2.5 2.5
+3.8 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
Elche 115
  • Home ML value at +115 implied 46.5% vs fair 50%
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Elche
  • Market prior with Elche home favorite status
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 52%
UNDER 2.5 2.5
  • LaLiga avg 2.4 goals/game; low leaders totals suggest defensive matchup
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Elche home ML +115 (46% implied vs 50% fair) but N=0 model forces PASS across board
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