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MLB
New York Mets
New York Mets
Mets
0 - 0
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Cincinnati Reds
Reds
Cincinnati Reds
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +44.3% EV ALIGNED
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
New York Mets New York Mets -1.5
"Mets -1.5 at +230 vs Reds without De La Cruz/Hayes — Pinnacle fair value -130, bet into a 43.6% EV retail misprice before it sharpens."
EV / $100
+43.6
Win Prob
57%
Edge
+4.3%
Size
1.0u
MONEYLINE New York Mets None
65%
TOTAL over 9.0
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 18.7% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$2193100 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (85% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 564 trades Kalshi: 478 trades Largest: $275000
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: -1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.5
Win Prob
36.6%
ML
173 / -173

Player Props Engine

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New York Mets

Cincinnati Reds

Live Stats

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 115 / -138 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 122 / -132 -
Value Line - 112 / -137 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-320) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-135) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.0 (103)
De-Vigged Fair Value -129 / 129 127 / -127 O/U 109 / -109
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Mets

C
Christian Arroyo
(2B) day-to-day — The Mets re-signed Arroyo to a minor-league contract Tuesday.
Day-To-Day
F
Francisco Lindor
(SS) 10-day IL — Lindor (calf) played three innings in a simulated game Friday, and he could begin an official rehab assignment Monday, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Ryan Lambert
(RP) day-to-day — Triple-A Syracuse placed Lambert on the 7-day injured list June 4 due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
R
Ronny Mauricio
(SS) 10-day IL — Mauricio (thumb) could begin a rehab assignment later this week, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jorge Polanco
(1B) 60-day IL — An MRI on Polanco's left ankle/Achilles tendon came back negative Tuesday, Andrew Tredinnick of The Bergen Record reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Christian Scott
(SP) 15-day IL — The Mets placed Scott on the 15-day injured list Monday due to a right hip impingement.
15-Day-IL
M
Mike Baumann
(RP) day-to-day — Baumann signed a minor-league deal with the Mets on Wednesday, Michael Mayer of MetsmerizedOnline.com reports.
Day-To-Day
L
Luis Robert Jr.
(CF) 60-day IL — Robert (spine) said Thursday that his back has been responding better in recent days and he expects to return before the end of this season, Chelsea Janes of SNY.tv reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tyrone Taylor
(CF) 10-day IL — Taylor (hip) began running this past week but has yet to resume full baseball activities, Tim Britton of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
B
Brandon Waddell
(RP) day-to-day — Waddell (shoulder) picked up the win after allowing three runs on four hits while striking out two across three innings during Saturday's game against Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre.
Day-To-Day
C
Clay Holmes
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets transferred Holmes (fibula) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
M
Mike Tauchman
(RF) day-to-day — Tauchman (knee) is still rehabbing at the Mets' spring training complex and has yet to resume baseball activities, Tim Britton of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Joe Jacques
(RP) day-to-day — The Mets signed Jacques to a minor-league contract Wednesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Reed Garrett
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kevin Herget
(RP) day-to-day — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
D
Dedniel Nunez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Nunez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.
60-Day-IL
J
Justin Hagenman
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
J
Jose Rojas
(3B) day-to-day — Triple-A Salt Lake placed Rojas on its COVID-19 injured list Sunday, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Tylor Megill
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Megill (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL

Cincinnati Reds

E
Emilio Pagan
(RP) 15-day IL — Pagan (hamstring) threw a bullpen session Tuesday and is scheduled to pitch in a simulated game/live batting practice session at Yankee Stadium on Friday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
P
Pierce Johnson
(RP) 15-day IL — Johnson (elbow) is scheduled to begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Louisville on Thursday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
E
Elly De La Cruz
(SS) 10-day IL — De La Cruz (hamstring) is scheduled to begin running Tuesday and Wednesday, and he will begin a rehab assignment Friday with Triple-A Gwinnett, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
H
Hunter Greene
(SP) 60-day IL — Greene (elbow) is slated to begin a rehab assignment Thursday in the rookie-level Arizona Complex League, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
60-Day-IL
G
Graham Ashcraft
(RP) 60-day IL — Ashcraft (elbow) received a platelet-rich plasma injection Tuesday, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
K
Ke'Bryan Hayes
(3B) 10-day IL — Hayes is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Phillies.
10-Day-IL
C
Connor Burns
(C) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
B
Brandon Williamson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Reds transferred Williamson (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Carson Spiers
(SP) out — The Reds re-signed Spiers (elbow) to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday.
Out
Live Box Score
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New York Mets
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Cincinnati Reds
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds

+43.6 EV
per $100 wagered
New York Mets 65% Sharp Lean
"Mets -1.5 at +230 vs Reds without De La Cruz/Hayes — Pinnacle fair value -130, bet into a 43.6% EV retail misprice before it sharpens."
57% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 57%
Book Implied 53%
Edge +4.3%
Line Movement
Current MLB +1.5 / 9.0 / home +113 away -136
Movement No significant line movement detected.
Reds missing star 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes and SS Elly De La Cruz (both 10-Day-IL) — lineup gutted Mets only IL loss: Tyrone Taylor (4th OF) — minimal offensive impact Sunny 72°F, low wind (7 mph) — neutral hitting conditions at GABP Nick Lodolo (5.21 ERA) vs Nolan McLean (4.01 ERA) — clear pitching advantage to visitors
simulation simulation (10k runs) projects the Mets win at 57.3%, well above the no-vig market estimate of ~53.0%. The +6.6 EV per $100 bet on the moneyline reflects real edge from the sharper away-side pitching advantage and favorable injury-adjusted lambda.
FULL ANALYSIS
Reds are without De La Cruz and Hayes — their two best position players — while the Mets lose only a 4th OF. That lineup gap couples with a clear pitching advantage (McLean 4.01 vs Lodolo 5.21) to give the Mets a strong edge. The sharpest books (Pinnacle) price the spread at -130/+130 but retail offers +230 on the Mets -1.5 — that 43.6% EV is the most glaring single misprice on the board. Total has some over appeal given the park and bullpen vulnerabilities, but model history on totals is spotty; only a lean there.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge 18.6% on the spread, strong signal. Pinnacle fair value (away 43.5%) vs retail +230 is a +43.6% EV opportunity on the away spread. Whale volume ($2.17M) is extreme but surprisingly sides with the home team — sharp money overrides whales here given Pinnacle's proven efficiency.
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD New York Mets -1.5
+43.6 EV 65% 1.0u
MONEYLINE New York Mets None
+6.6 EV 65% 1.0u
TOTAL over 9.0
+3.1 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 65%
New York Mets -136
  • Monte Carlo 57.3% win probability vs market 53.0% — +6.6 EV on the ML
  • Injury-adjusted lambda favors the Mets -10.6% vs -7.8% home impact
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
New York Mets -1.5
  • Sharp edge 18.6% with strong signal; retail book offering +230 on a run line Pinnacle prices at +130 fair value — extreme mispricing
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 62%
OVER 9.0
  • Bayesian fusion total posterior at 65.2% over vs market 50% — +15.2pp edge
  • GABP is top-5 in park factor for runs, and both starters sport ERAs above 4.00
  • Reds without De La Cruz reduces OBP but Mets pen is vulnerable
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Mets +2.2 vs Reds: model says 56.3% cover probability vs market 50% — +6.3pp edge. Over 8.0 total: OMEGA projects 22.5 runs — 14.5-point market mispricing. Take both before correction.
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