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NHL
Colorado Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche
Avalanche
Edmonton Oilers
Oilers
Edmonton Oilers
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK +27.6% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche -1.5
"COL +12.4% net injury edge + sharp 11.7% spread divergence vs Draisaitl/Hyman-out Oilers (our 55% > 53.5% implied, +2.8 EV)"
EV / $100
+6.5
Win Prob
55%
Edge
+5.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Colorado Avalanche None
60%
TOTAL over 6.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 11.7% divergence on spread with strong signal. RLM detected on total.
Sharp: away Boost: +4
Whale Activity Detected
$181496 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (88% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 59 trades Largest: $11429

Player Props Engine

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Colorado Avalanche

Edmonton Oilers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 102 / -122 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 105 / -118 -
Value Line - 102 / -118 -
Sharp Action Best Line 2.5 (-460) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-238) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 3.5 (125)
Market Consensus - - Over 6.5 (-117)
De-Vigged Fair Value -221 / 221 111 / -111 O/U -109 / 109
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Colorado Avalanche

C
Cale Makar
(D) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
J
Josh Manson
(D) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
N
Nazem Kadri
(C) out — out
Out

Edmonton Oilers

M
Max Jones
(LW) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
J
Jason Dickinson
(C) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
L
Leon Draisaitl
(C) Injured Reserve — Draisaitl (lower body) has not started skating but is expected to get on the ice soon, Tony Brar of Oilers TV reports Monday.
Injured Reserve
Z
Zach Hyman
(LW) out — Hyman (undisclosed) won't play on the Oilers' upcoming three-game road trip, which begins Tuesday versus the Mammoth, Ryan Rishaug of TSN reports.
Out
M
Mattias Janmark
(C) Injured Reserve — Janmark (undisclosed) underwent season-ending surgery on Friday, per Mark Spector of Sportsnet.
Injured Reserve
Game Preview
Colorado Avalanche @ Edmonton Oilers
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread 2.5 (-460)
Total Over 3.5
Key Injuries
Cale Makar Day-To-Day
Josh Manson Day-To-Day
Max Jones Day-To-Day
Jason Dickinson Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at puck drop

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Colorado Avalanche @ Edmonton Oilers

+6.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Colorado Avalanche 60% Lean
"COL +12.4% net injury edge + sharp 11.7% spread divergence vs Draisaitl/Hyman-out Oilers (our 55% > 53.5% implied, +2.8 EV)"
55% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 55%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +5.0%
Line Movement
Current Puck Line: Colorado Avalanche -1.5 -115 | Edmonton Oilers +1.5 -105 | Moneyline: Edmonton Oilers -105 / Colorado Avalanche -115 | Total: 6.5 -110
Movement No significant movement
Edmonton -25% injury impact (Draisaitl IR, Hyman out) Colorado -12.6% injury impact (Kadri out, Makar/Manson DTD) Net -12.4% away advantage from injuries
Marginal +EV on COL ML at -115 (breakeven 53.5%, our 55% exceeds by 1.5%); stronger +EV on spread per +EV analysis
Model: 49.1% win rate | n=395 — Overconfident higher tiers; ML profitable in Lean/Strong; reduce all 4 pts
FULL ANALYSIS
Edmonton gutted by Draisaitl/Hyman outs (-25% impact, lambda adj) vs COL's milder hits (-12.6% net edge). Sharp money piles on COL spread (11.7% divergence, +27.6% EV fair value) despite whales extreme home. Stable lines, cross-market away consensus, Pinnacle fair 52.7% COL aligns with our 55%.
SHARP MONEY
11.7% sharp edge on spread away + 9.5% on total over; RLM on total (strong signal, +4 conf boost)
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Colorado Avalanche -1.5
+6.5 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Colorado Avalanche None
+2.8 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL over 6.5
+1.2 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 60%
Colorado Avalanche -115
  • Injuries crater Edmonton (-25% lambda adj) vs COL -12.6%; cross-market away consensus
SPREAD PICK
● 60%
Colorado Avalanche -1.5
  • Sharp 11.7% edge on away spread + +27.6% EV vs fair value (31.1% cover prob)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 6.5
  • Sharp 9.5% edge + RLM on over; cross-market over lean
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Whales drop $164k (EXTREME tier) on Oilers +165 ML, our 46% vs 38% implied = +21.9 EV despite injuries
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