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Dallas Mavericks
Dallas Mavericks
Mavericks
6 - 5
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New Orleans Pelicans
Pelicans
New Orleans Pelicans
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Dallas Mavericks

New Orleans Pelicans

Injury Report

Dallas Mavericks

Caleb Martin (F) out — Martin (foot) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the Pelicans.
Out
Daniel Gafford (F) out — Gafford (illness) won't play Monday night against New Orleans.
Out
Klay Thompson (G) out — Thompson (rest) is out for Monday's game against New Orleans.
Out
Kyrie Irving (G) out — Irving (knee) will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 season, ESPN's Shams Charania reports.
Out
Dereck Lively II (C) out — Lively successfully underwent surgery on his right foot Sunday.
Out

New Orleans Pelicans

Dejounte Murray (G) out — Murray (illness) is out for Monday's game against the Mavericks.
Out
Bryce McGowens (G) out — McGowens (toe) is out for Monday's game against the Mavericks.
Out

AI Pick

VALUE
55
VALUE
Spread
Dallas +8.5
Dallas +8.5
Expected Value
+2.1 EV
per $100 wagered

Dallas depleted but NO 13-21 home record vs sub-.500 teams

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OMEGA ANALYSIS

Dallas Mavericks @ New Orleans Pelicans

+2.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Dallas +8.5 55% TOSS-UP
"Dallas +8.5: Mavs crippled but NO's 13-21 home record vs .500 teams screams line value (+2.1 EV, fade the favorite trap)"
MARKET
Open: NO -8.5
Current: NO -8.5
Move: No movement
Our prob: 0.72%
EV BREAKDOWN
Our win probability: 0.72%
EV per $100: $-5.8
Negative EV on home spread; Dallas +8.5 offers +2.1 EV but injuries cap conviction
0.5u recommended

AI Game Analysis

Both teams cellar dwellers but Dallas gutted by injuries—Irving out, Lively/Gafford DTD, Thompson DTD—faces a Pelicans squad with middling 13-21 home mark. NO -8.5 stable despite public favoritism; our model sees regression to 72% NO win prob (implied 78%). Dallas +8.5 edges +2.1 EV on poor home splits for NO, but injury risk demands tiny size. No total value at bloated 240.5.
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Dallas +8.5
  • Dallas depleted but NO 13-21 home record vs sub-.500 teams
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Dallas +8.5: Mavs crippled but NO's 13-21 home record vs .500 teams screams line value (+2.1 EV, fade the favorite trap)