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MLB
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
Orioles
Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +39.1% EV
72% Strong
72% Strong
SPREAD
Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
"Dodgers -1.5 +190 at retail books is a +39.1% EV anomaly vs Pinnacle's 48% fair value — sharp divergence confirms the overhang, grab before corrected."
EV / $100
+39.1
Win Prob
68%
Edge
+0.9%
Size
2.0u
MONEYLINE Los Angeles Dodgers None
62%
TOTAL under 9.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 15.0% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1343222 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong away consensus (70% of whale volume).
Whales: away Polymarket: 195 trades Largest: $785114

Player Props Engine

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Baltimore Orioles

Los Angeles Dodgers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -206 / 168 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -196 / 175 -
Value Line - -210 / 165 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (190) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (102) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.5 (101)
De-Vigged Fair Value 108 / -108 -187 / 187 O/U 108 / -108
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Baltimore Orioles

A
Adley Rutschman
(C) day-to-day — Rutschman isn't in the lineup for Saturday's game against the Padres, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
Day-To-Day
D
Dylan Beavers
(RF) 10-day IL — Beavers (oblique) is expected to begin a rehab assignment at Double-A Chesapeake on Thursday, Andy Kostka of TheBanner.com reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Chris Bassitt
(SP) 15-day IL — Bassitt (back) received a facet injection to his lower back Friday, and he's set to begin his throwing progression, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
D
Dean Kremer
(SP) 60-day IL — Kremer (quadriceps) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Norfolk this week, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Cade Povich
(SP) 15-day IL — Povich (elbow) will begin a minor-league rehab assignment with Double-A Chesapeake this week, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yaramil Hiraldo
(RP) 60-day IL — Hiraldo (shoulder) will throw live batting practice Friday, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Ryan Mountcastle
(1B) 60-day IL — Mountcastle (foot) did some running Saturday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jhonkensy Noel
(RF) day-to-day — Noel was placed on the 7-day injured list at Triple-A Norfolk on Monday with left wrist inflammation, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
L
Levi Wells
(P) day-to-day — Wells underwent successful core-muscle surgery Thursday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Colin Selby
(RP) 60-day IL — Selby was recently evaluated by Dr. Chris Looze in Baltimore due to ongoing symptoms with his injured right shoulder, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jordan Westburg
(3B) 60-day IL — Westburg (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Andrew Golden of TheBanner.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Richard Guasch
(SP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
Z
Zach Eflin
(SP) 60-day IL — Eflin underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
60-Day-IL
W
Will Robertson
(LF) day-to-day — The Orioles reassigned Robertson to minor-league camp Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
F
Felix Bautista
(RP) 60-day IL — Bautista (shoulder) threw a baseball Tuesday for the first time since undergoing surgery last August, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
60-Day-IL

Los Angeles Dodgers

T
Teoscar Hernandez
(LF) 10-day IL — Hernandez (hamstring) will take live batting practice Thursday and could be ready to begin a rehab assignment early next week, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.
10-Day-IL
W
Will Smith
(C) 10-day IL — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Wednesday that it's "unlikely" Smith (neck) will be activated from the 10-day injured list Friday when first eligible, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Tyler Glasnow
(SP) 60-day IL — Glasnow (back) has yet to resume throwing, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Edwin Diaz
(RP) 60-day IL — Diaz (elbow) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session this week, Katie Woo of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brock Stewart
(RP) 15-day IL — Stewart (foot) will begin a rehab assignment at Single-A Ontario on Friday.
15-Day-IL
K
Kendall George
(CF) out — George hasn't played for Double-A Tulsa since suffering an injury to his left patellar tendon in a May 25 game versus Northwest Arkansas, Alden Gonzalez of ESPN.com reports.
Out
C
Chris Campos
(SP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
B
Blake Snell
(SP) 60-day IL — Snell (elbow) began playing catch Friday, Sonja Chen of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Evan Phillips
(RP) 60-day IL — Phillips (elbow) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Thursday, yielding one hit and one walk over two-thirds of a scoreless frame.
60-Day-IL
B
Bobby Miller
(SP) 60-day IL — Miller (shoulder/back) will resume throwing off the mound this week, Cody Snavely of DodgersBeat.com reports.
60-Day-IL
G
Gavin Stone
(SP) 60-day IL — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts revealed Tuesday that Stone has been unable to ramp up his throwing without feeling soreness in his surgically repaired right shoulder, Cody Snavely of DodgersBeat.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brusdar Graterol
(RP) 60-day IL — Graterol (shoulder) underwent surgery recently for a back injury he suffered while on a rehab assignment, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Enrique Hernandez
(1B) 10-day IL — Hernandez is expected to be out for 6-to-8 weeks after sustaining a "significant tear" of his left oblique during Tuesday's 15-6 win over the Rockies, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
B
Ben Casparius
(RP) 60-day IL — Casparius (shoulder) was moved to the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
L
Landon Knack
(SP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers transferred Knack (chest) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jake Cousins
(RP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers transferred Cousins (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Dodgers
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (190)
Total Over 9.5
Key Injuries
Adley Rutschman Day-To-Day
Dylan Beavers 10-Day-IL
Teoscar Hernandez 10-Day-IL
Will Smith 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Dodgers

+39.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Los Angeles Dodgers 72% Strong
"Dodgers -1.5 +190 at retail books is a +39.1% EV anomaly vs Pinnacle's 48% fair value — sharp divergence confirms the overhang, grab before corrected."
68% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 68%
Book Implied 67%
Edge +0.9%
Line Movement
Current ML: LAD -199 / BAL +163 | Total: 9.5
Movement No significant line movement detected. Market is stable near opening price.
Injury impact: Orioles (-10.6%) more affected than Dodgers (-7.8%) — net 2.8% injury advantage to home side. Adley Rutschman day-to-day for Baltimore — key offensive catcher out or limited. Will Smith on 10-day IL for Dodgers — starting catcher out. No probable pitcher data available increases uncertainty.
Moneyline has negligible edge (0.9pp), effectively break-even after vig. The only meaningful +EV in this market is on the spread, where Market Consensus's de-vigged fair value (48% home) vs retail +190 yields +39.1% EV.
FULL ANALYSIS
This card is all about one spot: the Dodgers spread at +190. Pinnacle's de-vigged fair value pins LAD -1.5 at 48%, yet retail books still offer +190 — a +39% EV anomaly with sharp divergence at 15%. The moneyline at -199 is correctly priced: no edge, no play. The total (9.5) is a coinflip with catcher injuries cancelling out. Dodgers have the injury advantage (Will Smith on IL hurts less than Adley Rutschman day-to-day), and whale signals voting away ($1.3M) are a noise factor — prediction markets agree with sharp books, not whales. Ride the spread price before it gets pulled.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge 15.0% on spread favoring home with strong signal. 1.3% edge on away ML is moderate. 50+ whales with $1.3M volume betting away on prediction markets (70% conviction) looms as a contradictory factor, but Pinnacle sharp money is the more reliable signal in MLB. Overall sharp consensus favors home side.
Recommended Sizing
2.0u
Positive EV with multiple confirming factors. Standard sizing.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
+39.1 EV 72% 2.0u
MONEYLINE Los Angeles Dodgers None
+0.7 EV 62% 0.5u
TOTAL under 9.5
+1.4 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 62%
Los Angeles Dodgers -199
  • Bayesian posterior agrees with market (66.6% each); injury net favors Dodgers by 2.8% from quality of players sidelined (Will Smith for LAD, Adley Rutschman day-to-day for BAL)
SPREAD PICK
● 72%
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
  • Pinnacle de-vigged fair value prices home spread at 48% while retail books offer +190 — a +39.1% EV anomaly, sharp divergence is 15% toward home with strong signal
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 9.5
  • +EV Analysis shows Pinnacle fair value on under at 52.0% (de-vigged) vs market 9.5 under -110 implying 52.4%
  • Minor 0.4pp edge is within noise, but injury to both starting catchers (Will Smith IL, Adley Rutschman day-to-day) reduces offensive ceiling for both lineups
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
No positive EV anywhere — Bayesian edge -0.2pp, MC under 19.5 has best raw signal (65.2%) but 52% data quality forces a pass. Wait for pitcher confirmations and real market lines.
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