Home › MLS › San Jose Earthquakes @ Toronto FC
MLS
San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes
Earthquake
Toronto FC
FC
Toronto FC
Full Game Analysis
MLS
Ω OMEGA PICK
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Toronto FC Toronto FC 0.5
"Omega 7.5 total vs mkt 2.5 (+15pp over edge), even spread + SJ travel -15% = Toronto +0.5 value"
EV / $100
+5.0
Win Prob
65%
Edge
+14.9%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Toronto FC None
34%
TOTAL over 2.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
7.5
Edge: +5.0
Win Prob
38.4%
ML
161 / -161

Player Props Engine

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San Jose Earthquakes

Toronto FC

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
-5.3
Moneyline
TOR 214 / SAN -214
Win Probability
32% - 68%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
San Jose Earthquakes @ Toronto FC
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

San Jose Earthquakes @ Toronto FC

+5.0 EV
per $100 wagered
Toronto FC 55% Lean
"Omega 7.5 total vs mkt 2.5 (+15pp over edge), even spread + SJ travel -15% = Toronto +0.5 value"
65% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 65%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +14.9%
Line Movement
Current Spread: San Jose Earthquakes -0.5 (-135) / Toronto FC +0.5 (+100); ML: San Jose Earthquakes -100 / Toronto FC +225; Total: 2.5 (-110)
Movement No significant line movement detected
Away long travel >2000mi (-15% performance for San Jose) 3+ timezone change (-10% away) Cool 41F temps (minor under bias ignored by high model totals)
+14.9pp edge on over 2.5 drives primary value; home ML +3pp secondary
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega Poisson+ELO even at 3.8-3.8 despite SJ 9-0-1 form, market overprices away by 0.5pt on spread. Bayesian +3% home ML/+15% over 2.5 with Dixon-Coles 12.8 total; SJ cross-country travel -15% +3 timezones -10%. MC high edge conf but low agreement caps conviction; Kalshi bearish home (27.5%) contradicts slightly.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Toronto FC 0.5
+5.0 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Toronto FC None
+9.8 EV 34%
TOTAL over 2.5
+12.1 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 34%
Toronto FC 225
  • Bayesian posterior 33.8% vs market 30.8% (+3pp edge); omega ML Toronto +161 vs market +225
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Toronto FC 0.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market -0.5 SJ (0.5pt edge home); MC home +0.5 cover ~55% > implied 50%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 2.5
  • Posterior 64.9% over vs market 50% (+14.9pp); omega total 7.5, MC proj 6.6, Dixon-Coles 12.8 combined
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Omega 7.5 total vs mkt 2.5 (+15pp over edge), even spread + SJ travel -15% = Toronto +0.5 value
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