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WNBA
Japan
Japan
Japan
Phoenix Mercury
Mercury
Phoenix Mercury
Full Game Analysis
WNBA
Ω OMEGA PICK
56% Lean
56% Lean
SPREAD
Japan Japan -3.5
"Healthy Japan +4.3pt edge vs Mercury's -17.2% injury lambda (5 DTD); model Japan -3.5 +2.8 EV"
EV / $100
+2.8
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+4.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Japan None
54%
TOTAL under 158.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Japan

Phoenix Mercury

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
4.3
Moneyline
PHO -185 / JAP 185
Win Probability
65% - 35%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
Japan @ Phoenix Mercury
until tip-off
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Japan @ Phoenix Mercury

+2.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Japan 56% Lean
"Healthy Japan +4.3pt edge vs Mercury's -17.2% injury lambda (5 DTD); model Japan -3.5 +2.8 EV"
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +4.0%
Line Movement
Current omega_model: Spread Japan -3.5 (-110) | ML Japan -120 / Phoenix +100 | Total 158.5 (-110)
Movement No market data available
home_injury_disadvantage
Marginal +EV on Japan side after de-vigging model lines; injuries drive edge
FULL ANALYSIS
Phoenix Mercury's -17.2% injury hit (5 day-to-day critical players) shifts model line to Japan -3.5 despite even Bayesian posterior (50%). No quant models or market data caps conviction at LEAN; under 158.5 on scoring suppression. Data quality 32% demands -6pt reduction.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Japan -3.5
+2.8 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Japan None
+0.1 EV 54%
TOTAL under 158.5
+1.2 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 54%
Japan -120
  • Injury-driven shift exceeds model breakeven (55%) by 0pp but fails 5% rule
SPREAD PICK
○ 56%
Japan -3.5
  • Phoenix -17.2% lambda adjustment from 5 day-to-day injuries (critical quality)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 158.5
  • Home injuries suppress scoring (lambda -17.2%); WNBA totals historically weak (48.7% WR)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Healthy Japan +4.3pt edge vs Mercury's -17.2% injury lambda (5 DTD); model Japan -3.5 +2.8 EV
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