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NHL
Edmonton Oilers
Edmonton Oilers
Oilers
Anaheim Ducks
Ducks
Anaheim Ducks
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK +27.5% EV
67% Sharp Lean
67% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks 1.5
"Over 6.5 +15pp edge (65% posterior, 14+ proj total); Ducks ML/PL +EV confirmed extreme whales/sharps/PM vs Edm juice"
EV / $100
+25.4
Win Prob
65%
Edge
+15.2%
Size
1.0u
MONEYLINE Anaheim Ducks None
60%
TOTAL over 6.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 12.3% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$2877663 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 894 trades Kalshi: 465 trades Largest: $247316
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +130.0
Total
15.5
Edge: +9.0
Win Prob
41.4%
ML
142 / -142

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Edmonton Oilers

Anaheim Ducks

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 107 / -128 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 110 / -123 -
Value Line - 107 / -121 -
Sharp Action Best Line 2.5 (-430) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-221) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 25.5 (-105)
Market Consensus - - Over 7.0 (101)
De-Vigged Fair Value -206 / 206 117 / -117 O/U 108 / -108
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Edmonton Oilers

M
Max Jones
(LW) out — Jones (lower body) is expected to be available if the Oilers advance to the second round, Jason Gregor of Sports 1440 Edmonton reports Wednesday.
Out
A
Adam Henrique
(C) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day

Anaheim Ducks

R
Ross Johnston
(LW) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
R
Radko Gudas
(D) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
J
Jansen Harkins
(C) out — out
Out
Game Preview
Edmonton Oilers @ Anaheim Ducks
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread 2.5 (-430)
Total Over 25.5
Key Injuries
Max Jones Out
Adam Henrique Day-To-Day
Ross Johnston Day-To-Day
Radko Gudas Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at puck drop

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Edmonton Oilers @ Anaheim Ducks

+25.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Anaheim Ducks 67% Sharp Lean
"Over 6.5 +15pp edge (65% posterior, 14+ proj total); Ducks ML/PL +EV confirmed extreme whales/sharps/PM vs Edm juice"
65% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 65%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +15.2%
Line Movement
Current ML: Anaheim +110 / Edmonton -130; Puck Line: Anaheim +1.5 -218 / Edmonton -1.5 +180; Total: 6.5 (-110)
Movement No significant line movement detected
Home injury disadvantage (-12.6% lambda vs away -6.3%)
Strongest edge on total over with +15.2pp calibrated vs market; ML home slight +1.1 EV
FULL ANALYSIS
Posterior fuses to 65% over 6.5 vs market 50% with MC 14.1 total avg and Dixon-Coles 19.2 lambda; Ducks sides confirmed by 15.2% sharp spread edge, extreme $2.8M whales home (62% conf), PM 57% home diverging +9.8%. Injuries hit Ducks harder but McDavid can't overcome value at +110 ML/67% PL cover. Omega even spread vs market Edmonton shade shows early inefficiency.
SHARP MONEY
15.2% sharp edge on home spread + RLM yes; +25.4% EV home spread vs Pinnacle fair value 67.1%
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Anaheim Ducks 1.5
+25.4 EV 67% 1.0u
MONEYLINE Anaheim Ducks None
+1.1 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL over 6.5
+18.2 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
Anaheim Ducks 110
  • Bayesian posterior 48.1% exceeds devigged breakeven 47.6% by 0.5pp
SPREAD PICK
● 67%
Anaheim Ducks 1.5
  • +25.4% EV on Ducks +1.5 at retail -115 vs Pinnacle fair 67.1% cover prob
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 6.5
  • Over posterior 65.2% vs 50% implied (+15.2pp); MC avg total 14.1, Dixon-Coles 19.2
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Ducks +1.5 +26.4% EV on sharp RLM/whale extreme home amid Edmonton injury hit (-15.8%)
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