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MLB
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
Padres
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +60.3% EV
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 0.0
"PIT spread +400 offers 57.7% EV (sharp 13.4% edge vs retail) despite MC neutral 46.1% cover"
EV / $100
+57.7
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-3.9%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Pittsburgh Pirates None
58%
TOTAL under 7.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.0% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +110.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.5
Win Prob
36.7%
ML
172 / -172

Player Props Engine

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San Diego Padres

Pittsburgh Pirates

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -113 / -107 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -108 / -102 -
Value Line - -110 / -113 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (400) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (194) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (101)
De-Vigged Fair Value 212 / -212 -103 / 103 O/U 108 / -108
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

San Diego Padres

G
Griffin Canning
(SP) 15-day IL — Canning (Achilles) will start for Double-A San Antonio on a rehab assignment Saturday, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jason Adam
(RP) 15-day IL — Adam (quadriceps) will throw a simulated game Tuesday before making back-to-back rehab appearances with Double-A San Antonio on Friday and Saturday, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Joe Musgrove
(SP) 15-day IL — Musgrove (elbow) said Thursday that he has resuemd playing catch, but he doesn't have a definitive timeline to return from the 15-day injured list, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Sung-Mun Song
(3B) 10-day IL — Song (oblique) has gone 3-for-7 with two RBI through two rehab games with Triple-A El Paso.
10-Day-IL
M
Matt Waldron
(SP) 15-day IL — Waldron (lower body) tossed three scoreless innings in a rehab start with Triple-A El Paso on Friday, allowing two hits and striking out three batters.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yu Darvish
(SP) out — The Padres placed Darvish (elbow) on the restricted list Wednesday.
Out
Y
Yuki Matsui
(RP) 15-day IL — The Padres placed Matsui (groin) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
B
Bryan Hoeing
(RP) 15-day IL — The Padres placed Hoeing (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
W
Will Wagner
(3B) 10-day IL — The Padres placed Wagner (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
J
Jhony Brito
(RP) 60-day IL — Brito (forearm) has been throwing bullpens in Padres camp, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Hunt
(C) day-to-day — Hunt is dealing with an oblique injury and has been shut down from activity, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Day-To-Day

Pittsburgh Pirates

C
Chris Devenski
(RP) day-to-day — The Pirates reassigned Devenski (head) to minor-league camp Sunday.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Triolo
(SS) 10-day IL — The Pirates placed Triolo on the 10-day injured list Sunday due to a patellar tendon injury in his right knee, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
10-Day-IL
O
Oddanier Mosqueda
(RP) day-to-day — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Jones
(SP) 60-day IL — Pirates senior director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Monday that Jones (elbow) should be ready for game action when he's eligible to return from the 60-day injured list in late May, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Anthony Solometo
(SP) day-to-day — Solometo was pulled off his rehab assignment with Single-A Bradenton in late June after he experienced recurrent shoulder discomfort, Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
San Diego Padres @ Pittsburgh Pirates
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (400)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Griffin Canning 15-Day-IL
Jason Adam 15-Day-IL
Chris Devenski Day-To-Day
Jared Triolo 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

San Diego Padres @ Pittsburgh Pirates

+57.7 EV
per $100 wagered
Pittsburgh Pirates 65% Sharp Lean
"PIT spread +400 offers 57.7% EV (sharp 13.4% edge vs retail) despite MC neutral 46.1% cover"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -3.9%
Line Movement
Current PIT -110 / SD +110 (pick'em ML), Total 7.5
Movement No movement data
No positive EV on ML at current lines; sharp +EV only on PIT spread +400 (57.7% EV vs fair 31.5% prob)
Model: 52.3% win rate | n=352 — MLB 184-168 (N=352); recent 7d +3.93u; H2H PIT 12-14, SD 13-12; reduce for overconfidence
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money hammers PIT spread +13.4% edge (fair 31.5% prob, Bovada +400 = 57.7% EV); MC sims even at 46.1% PIT cover but confirms no edge elsewhere. Omega total 24.0 absurd vs market 7.5 (pitcher game expected); ML -EV at current juice. Calibration shows lean spreads/moneylines profitable but overconfident—cap at 65 max.
SHARP MONEY
13.4% sharp edge on PIT spread vs retail (strong signal); +57.7% EV on Bovada PIT spread +400
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Pittsburgh Pirates 0.0
+57.7 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Pittsburgh Pirates None
-5.0 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL under 7.5
+1.8 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 57%
San Diego Padres -170
  • MC home win 46.9% vs omega_model implied 62.96% breakeven (needs 63%); lean Padres per ELO 1530 vs 1618
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.0
  • MC sims project razor-thin 46.9% Pirates cover +0.0 vs 45.5% Padres (SE 0.5%)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 54%
UNDER 24.0
  • MC sims 46.5% under 24.0 vs 45.6% over; totals losing across tiers per calibration
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
MC 46.9% Pirates +0.0 cover (SE 0.5%) in 12-12 model spot; data quality 42% caps at 0.5u toss-up
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