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MLB
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals
Washington Nationals
Nationals
Washington Nationals
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 0
"Nationals ML -102: MC 46.6% STL win undervalues home side vs -118 away pricing (+2.1 EV)"
EV / $100
+1.8
Win Prob
47%
Edge
-3.4%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Washington Nationals None
60%
TOTAL under 8.0
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +118.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.0
Win Prob
35.6%
ML
181 / -181

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

St. Louis Cardinals

Washington Nationals

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Market Consensus - 102 / -113 ↑ -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-170) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-109)
Fair Value Fair Value -160 / 160 107 / -107 O/U -102 / 102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

St. Louis Cardinals

M
Masyn Winn
(SS) day-to-day — Winn (hip) is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Tigers, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Matt Pushard
(RP) 15-day IL — Pushard (knee) will be shut down for 4-to-5 days before resuming a throwing program, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hunter Dobbins
(SP) 15-day IL — Dobbins (knee) will begin a rehab assignment Tuesday at Triple-A Memphis, Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
15-Day-IL
I
Ixan Henderson
(SP) day-to-day — Henderson (elbow) is starting the season on the 60-day injured list at Triple-A Memphis.
Day-To-Day
L
Lars Nootbaar
(LF) 60-day IL — Cardinals president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom said Monday that Nootbaar (heels) will be evaluated this week for potential placement on the 60-day injured list, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
60-Day-IL
V
Victor Santos
(RP) day-to-day — Santos (elbow) has compiled a 3.97 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 26:7 K:BB across 34 innings over his first nine outings (seven starts) in the Dominican Winter League.
Day-To-Day
S
Sem Robberse
(SP) day-to-day — Robberse (elbow) signed a minor-league contract with the Cardinals on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Day-To-Day
Z
Zack Thompson
(RP) day-to-day — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day

Washington Nationals

P
Paxton Schultz
(RP) 15-day IL — Schultz (elbow) struck out two and allowed no hits and one walk over 1.2 scoreless innings in his first rehab appearance Saturday for Triple-A Rochester.
15-Day-IL
J
Josiah Gray
(SP) 60-day IL — The Nationals optioned Gray to Triple-A Rochester on Thursday.
60-Day-IL
D
DJ Herz
(SP) 60-day IL — Herz (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Trevor Williams
(SP) 60-day IL — The Nationals announced that Williams (elbow) has resumed his throwing progression and made 25 tosses from 60 feet Wednesday, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Joan Adon
(RP) out — no
Out
T
Tyler Stuart
(SP) out — Stuart underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this week, Bobby Blanco of MASNSports.com reports.
Out
J
Jarlin Susana
(RP) out — Susana underwent surgery last week to repair a right lat tear, Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post reports.
Out
T
Travis Sykora
(SP) out — Sykora will undergo a UCL reconstruction on his right elbow in two weeks, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.
Out
Game Preview
St. Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 1.5 (-170)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Masyn Winn Day-To-Day
Matt Pushard 15-Day-IL
Paxton Schultz 15-Day-IL
Josiah Gray 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

St. Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals

+1.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Washington Nationals 58% Lean
"Nationals ML -102: MC 46.6% STL win undervalues home side vs -118 away pricing (+2.1 EV)"
47% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 47%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -3.4%
Line Movement
Current STL -118 / Nationals -102 (Total 8.0)
Movement No movement data
No edge on ML; Nationals +102 offers value vs our 46.6% away win prob but insufficient after vig and calibration
Model: 53.0% win rate | n=285 — MLB 151-134 (53%); reduce 3-5 pts across tiers per historical overconfidence
FULL ANALYSIS
MC sims show dead even matchup at 46.6% STL win vs market 54% implied, creating small Nationals ML edge at -102. OMEGA spread 0.0 confirms no separation despite ELO favoring Nats 57%. Totals unplayable with model projecting 24 (anomaly) but market 8.0 and losing total calibration.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Washington Nationals 0
+1.8 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Washington Nationals None
+2.1 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL under 8.0
+1.2 EV 55%
MONEYLINE PICK
● 60%
Washington Nationals 184
  • ELO 56.1% home win prob vs omega blended 64.8% away; -184 juice requires 64.8% breakeven but tier profitable ML
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Washington Nationals 0.0
  • Omega spread 0.0 but ELO projects Nationals +1.7pt edge (1444 vs 1401 rating); even matchup favors home slight
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 24.0
  • Omega total 24.0 unusually high for MLB (league avg ~8.5); likely model artifact from early season data
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Even matchup per Omega (12-12 proj) but ELO Nats +1.7pt edge; depleted rotations both sides, no juice ML at -184
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