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MLB
Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers
Tigers
Houston Astros
Astros
Houston Astros
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.0% EV ALIGNED
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
MONEYLINE
Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers None
"Tigers +108 ML backed by Bayesian edge +7.7pp, sharp money divergence, and Mize's 2.27 ERA vs Lambert's 3.47 — fade the public Astros."
EV / $100
+15.4
Win Prob
56%
Edge
+7.4%
Size
1u
SPREAD Houston Astros 1.5
58%
TOTAL over 8.5
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 18.0% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$3230093 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (83% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 488 trades Kalshi: 53 trades Largest: $500000
Weather Impact
Houston: Mist | 76°F | Wind 12 mph
⚠️ PRECIPITATION (Mist): +18% under, +25% fumbles (NFL)
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: -1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
31.6%
ML
216 / -216

Player Props Engine

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Detroit Tigers

Houston Astros

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -113 / -107 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -107 / -101 -
Value Line - -115 / -108 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-460) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-179) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (101)
De-Vigged Fair Value -170 / 170 -103 / 103 O/U 107 / -107
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Detroit Tigers

G
Gleyber Torres
(2B) 10-day IL — Torres (side) remains out of the lineup for Wednesday's contest in Houston.
10-Day-IL
J
Justin Verlander
(SP) 60-day IL — Verlander (hip) will return from the injured list to start Sunday's game against the White Sox, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jack Flaherty
(SP) 15-day IL — The Tigers placed Flaherty on the 15-day injured list Saturday with a left peroneal strain.
15-Day-IL
J
Javier Baez
(SS) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Baez (ankle) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Burch Smith
(RP) 15-day IL — Smith (shoulder) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Trey Sweeney
(SS) 60-day IL — Sweeney will undergo season-ending shoulder surgery this week, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jackson Jobe
(SP) 60-day IL — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said Tuesday that Jobe (elbow) is expected to resume facing hitters in live batting practice "in a few weeks," Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brant Hurter
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Hurter on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to lumbar spine inflammation.
60-Day-IL
B
Bailey Horn
(RP) 60-day IL — Horn (elbow) began a throwing progression May 14, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reese Olson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Olson on the 60-day injured list Tuesday after he underwent a right shoulder labral repair Feb. 2 that will result in him missing the 2026 season.
60-Day-IL
P
Parker Meadows
(CF) 60-day IL — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said that Meadows underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a left radius fracture and will be sidelined "multiple months," Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Josue Briceno
(C) day-to-day — Briceno said Friday that he expects to be sidelined a few months after having surgery Wednesday to repair a tendon in his right wrist, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day

Houston Astros

C
Cristian Javier
(SP) 60-day IL — Astros manager Joe Espada said Wednesday that Javier (shoulder) will make a fourth minor-league rehab start before returning from the 60-day injured list, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Braden Shewmake
(SS) 10-day IL — The Astros announced Monday that Shewmake (adductor) has taken part in baseball activity and is working his way through a running progression at the team's facility in Florida, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
L
Lance McCullers Jr.
(SP) 15-day IL — Astros manager Joe Espada said Saturday that McCullers (shoulder) has resumed throwing off a mound, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Ronel Blanco
(SP) 60-day IL — Blanco (elbow) tossed 40 pitches in a simulated game Saturday and will soon start a rehab stint in the Florida Complex League, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
L
LaMonte Wade Jr.
(1B) 10-day IL — Wade left Monday's game against the Angels with right hamstring soreness, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
N
Nick Allen
(SS) 10-day IL — Allen was removed from Sunday's game against the Athletics due to left hamstring discomfort.
10-Day-IL
B
Brandon Walter
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros announced Friday that Walter (elbow) is in the midst of a throwing progression at the team's complex in West Palm Beach, Fla., Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Bennett Sousa
(RP) 15-day IL — The Astros announced Friday that Sousa (elbow) has begun a throwing progression, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Carlos Correa
(SS) 60-day IL — Correa is scheduled to undergo surgery Monday in Houston to repair the tendon in his left ankle, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Hayden Wesneski
(SP) 60-day IL — Wesneski (elbow) has progressed to throwing live batting practice this week, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
W
Walker Janek
(C) day-to-day — Double-A Corpus Christi placed Janek on its 7-day injured list Sunday due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-460)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Gleyber Torres 10-Day-IL
Justin Verlander 60-Day-IL
Cristian Javier 60-Day-IL
Braden Shewmake 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros

+15.44 EV
per $100 wagered
Detroit Tigers 65% Sharp Lean
"Tigers +108 ML backed by Bayesian edge +7.7pp, sharp money divergence, and Mize's 2.27 ERA vs Lambert's 3.47 — fade the public Astros."
56% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 56%
Book Implied 48%
Edge +7.4%
Line Movement
Current Home -111 / Away +108 (ML), Total 8.5, Spread N/A
Movement No significant movement detected
Mist and 12mph wind may suppress scoring slightly Both teams have multiple injuries, roughly equal impact (-7.8% each) Tigers start Casey Mize (2.27 ERA) vs Astros Peter Lambert (3.47 ERA) – pitching edge to Tigers
Strong positive EV on Tigers ML. calibrated shows 55.5% win probability vs market's 48.1% (de-vigged). Sharp money also favors away.
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion shows strong edge on Tigers ML (+7.7pp) and over 8.5 (+15.2pp), driven by Mize's superior ERA and sharp money divergence. Mist and wind may suppress scoring, but model sees enough offense. Whale money on Astros is a contrarian signal, but sharp books side with Tigers. The over has the highest edge but carries weather risk.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge 18.0% on spread favoring away, strong signal. +EV analysis shows spread away at +310 with +50% EV. Pinnacle diverges from retail books. Whale money on home is contrarian but sharp books side with Tigers.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Detroit Tigers None
+15.4 EV 65% 1u
SPREAD Houston Astros 1.5
+2.9 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.5
+24.5 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 65%
Detroit Tigers 108
  • Bayesian fusion shows +7.7pp edge on Tigers ML, backed by Mize's 2.27 ERA and sharp money divergence
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Houston Astros 1.5
  • Bayesian posterior shows home +1.5 covers 53.9% vs market 50%, a small +3.9pp edge
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
OVER 8.5
  • Bayesian fusion shows over 8.5 at 65.2% vs market 50%, a +15.2pp edge despite weather concerns
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Market total of 9.0 vs OMEGA's 22.5 — that's a 13.5-run mispricing. Bayesian edge +15.2pp, EV +30.4%. Take OVER 9 before it moves.
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