Home › MLB › New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
MLB
New York Mets
New York Mets
Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +46.2% EV ALIGNED
61% Lean
61% Lean
SPREAD
Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
"Phillies spread -1.5 gets a weak sharp-money lean (+13.3% divergence), but total under 9.5 is the cleaner play with 52.5% free-throw-market fair value and no model noise."
EV / $100
+3.6
Win Prob
56%
Edge
+0.3%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Philadelphia Phillies None
56%
TOTAL under 9.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 13.2% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$635878 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 159 trades Kalshi: 160 trades Largest: $150318
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.0
Win Prob
41.0%
ML
144 / -144

Player Props Engine

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New York Mets

Philadelphia Phillies

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -124 / 104 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -119 / 108 -
Value Line - -129 / 104 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (305) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (164) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.5 (-100)
De-Vigged Fair Value 177 / -177 -114 / 114 O/U 107 / -107
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Mets

C
Christian Arroyo
(2B) day-to-day — The Mets re-signed Arroyo to a minor-league contract Tuesday.
Day-To-Day
F
Francisco Lindor
(SS) 10-day IL — Lindor (calf) played three innings in a simulated game Friday, and he could begin an official rehab assignment Monday, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Ryan Lambert
(RP) day-to-day — Triple-A Syracuse placed Lambert on the 7-day injured list June 4 due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
R
Ronny Mauricio
(SS) 10-day IL — Mauricio (thumb) could begin a rehab assignment later this week, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jorge Polanco
(1B) 60-day IL — An MRI on Polanco's left ankle/Achilles tendon came back negative Tuesday, Andrew Tredinnick of The Bergen Record reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Christian Scott
(SP) 15-day IL — The Mets placed Scott on the 15-day injured list Monday due to a right hip impingement.
15-Day-IL
M
Mike Baumann
(RP) day-to-day — Baumann signed a minor-league deal with the Mets on Wednesday, Michael Mayer of MetsmerizedOnline.com reports.
Day-To-Day
L
Luis Robert Jr.
(CF) 60-day IL — Robert (spine) said Thursday that his back has been responding better in recent days and he expects to return before the end of this season, Chelsea Janes of SNY.tv reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tyrone Taylor
(CF) 10-day IL — Taylor (hip) began running this past week but has yet to resume full baseball activities, Tim Britton of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
B
Brandon Waddell
(RP) day-to-day — Waddell (shoulder) picked up the win after allowing three runs on four hits while striking out two across three innings during Saturday's game against Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre.
Day-To-Day
C
Clay Holmes
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets transferred Holmes (fibula) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
M
Mike Tauchman
(RF) day-to-day — Tauchman (knee) is still rehabbing at the Mets' spring training complex and has yet to resume baseball activities, Tim Britton of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Joe Jacques
(RP) day-to-day — The Mets signed Jacques to a minor-league contract Wednesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Reed Garrett
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kevin Herget
(RP) day-to-day — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
D
Dedniel Nunez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Nunez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.
60-Day-IL
J
Justin Hagenman
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
J
Jose Rojas
(3B) day-to-day — Triple-A Salt Lake placed Rojas on its COVID-19 injured list Sunday, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Tylor Megill
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Megill (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL

Philadelphia Phillies

B
Brad Keller
(RP) 15-day IL — Keller picked up the save Wednesday against the Athletics, allowing no runs on one hit and two walks in the ninth inning. He struck out one.
15-Day-IL
A
Adolis Garcia
(RF) 60-day IL — Garcia was removed from Wednesday's game against the Blue Jays due to a pulled muscle near his right shoulder, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Johan Rojas
(CF) out — Rojas (suspension) will miss the remainder of the season after suffering a right elbow UCL tear that will require an internal brace procedure.
Out
K
Kyle Backhus
(RP) 15-day IL — Backhus (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Tuesday.
15-Day-IL
A
Andrew Walling
(RP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
C
Carson DeMartini
(SS) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
D
Daniel Robert
(RP) day-to-day — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mark Kolozsvary
(C) day-to-day — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (305)
Total Over 9.5
Key Injuries
Christian Arroyo Day-To-Day
Francisco Lindor 10-Day-IL
Brad Keller 15-Day-IL
Adolis Garcia 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies

+3.6 EV
per $100 wagered
Philadelphia Phillies 61% Lean
"Phillies spread -1.5 gets a weak sharp-money lean (+13.3% divergence), but total under 9.5 is the cleaner play with 52.5% free-throw-market fair value and no model noise."
56% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 56%
Book Implied 56%
Edge +0.3%
Line Movement
Current ML -126 / +104, Spread -1.5, Total 9.5
Movement No significant movement detected on any market since open.
No situational flags detected — standard divisional matchup with no travel or rest advantage. Injury impact roughly equal on both sides (approx. -10.6% scoring each) — no net edge.
calibrated posterior (56.1%) is only +0.3pp above the de-vigged market prior (55.8%). This is purely fractional edge — 0.5% EV on the home ML is below our actionable threshold. PASS on moneyline.
FULL ANALYSIS
This is a middling NL East matchup with no real sharp edge. Bayesian fusion shows only a +0.4pp edge on the Phillies ML — below actionable thresholds. Sharp money is on Philadelphia at -1.5 with a 13.3% divergence signal, but the OMEGA Poisson line is unreliable (projecting 22.5 runs in an MLB game is a model bug, not a signal). The spread lean carries minimal conviction. The under 9.5 is the more reasonable total lean (market aligned, no weather boost, no inflation). Pass on ML, small play on spread or under if you must, but this is a low-expectation slate — avoid heavy units.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp vs Public analysis shows a 13.3% divergence on the spread favoring home side with a strong signal. Pinnacle fair value suggests the market spread is efficient. The +0.4% Bayesian edge on the ML is not actionable, but the spread side aligns with sharp money.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
+3.6 EV 61% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Philadelphia Phillies None
+0.5 EV 56%
TOTAL under 9.5
+2.1 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 56%
Philadelphia Phillies -126
  • Bayesian posterior (56.1%) trivially exceeds market (55.8%) by +0.3pp — sub-percentage edge is not actionable
SPREAD PICK
○ 61%
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
  • Sharp money strongly favors home side with +13.3% divergence on spread (Pinnacle vs retail); sharp signal confirmed by cross-market alignment
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
UNDER 9.5
  • Bayesian over posterior (65.2%) is heavily inflated by an unrealistic Poisson projection (22.5 runs)
  • The market's 9.5 line is far more reasonable for an MLB game
  • Sharp +EV analysis shows under 52.2% at Pinnacle fair value — no strong book lean either way
  • Best value: take the under at -110 based on reasonable regression to a normal scoring total
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Monte Carlo projects 68.7% chance under 22.5 runs, but missing pitcher/weather data caps confidence at LEAN.
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