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MLB
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbac
St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +49.0% EV EARLY VALUE
56% Lean
56% Lean
SPREAD
St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals -2.2
"Over 8.5: Bayesian fusion shows 65.2% probability vs 50% market — a +15.2pp edge in a game the model projects for 22.5 runs"
EV / $100
+6.3
Win Prob
51%
Edge
-7.7%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Arizona Diamondbacks None
55%
TOTAL over 8.5
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.3% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$622433 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (83% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 175 trades Kalshi: 10 trades Largest: $46576
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +2.2
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
34.6%
ML
189 / -189

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Arizona Diamondbacks

St. Louis Cardinals

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -148 / 124 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -140 / 129 -
Value Line - -152 / 123 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (280) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (146) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-109)
De-Vigged Fair Value 155 / -155 -135 / 135 O/U -103 / 103
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Arizona Diamondbacks

M
Michael Soroka
(SP) 15-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Soroka on the 15-day injured list Saturday due to a strained left glute.
15-Day-IL
J
Jordan Lawlar
(LF) 10-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Lawlar on the 10-day injured list Saturday with a right hamstring strain.
10-Day-IL
A
A.J. Puk
(RP) 60-day IL — Arizona is shutting down Puk (elbow) for another four weeks due to a capsule strain and he will also undergo another MRI in four weeks, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Ryne Nelson
(SP) 15-day IL — Nelson will be placed on the 15-day injured list after being diagnosed with a partially torn right flexor tendon, John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Juan Centeno
(C) Developmental List — The Diamondbacks re-assigned Centeno to minor-league camp Friday.
developmental list
J
James McCann
(C) 10-day IL — McCann (quadriceps) is expected to begin playing in complex league games next week, Alex Weiner of ArizonaSports.com reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Carlos Santana
(1B) 60-day IL — Santana (thigh) began a rehab assignment in the Arizona Complex League on Friday, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Corbin Burnes
(SP) 60-day IL — Manager Torey Lovullo said Wednesday that Burnes (elbow) has been shut down from throwing after suffering a teres major strain, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Cristian Mena
(RP) 60-day IL — Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo told reporters Monday that Mena underwent surgery on his right shoulder and will be sidelined for the rest of the season, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Walston
(SP) 60-day IL — Walston (elbow) paused his rehab program earlier in the season, but he was expected to start building back up around the middle of May, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
A.J. Vukovich
(CF) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
D
Derek Law
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
J
Justin Martinez
(RP) 60-day IL — Martinez (elbow) tossed a bullpen session Friday, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Andrew Saalfrank
(RP) 60-day IL — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
K
Kyle Amendt
(RP) day-to-day — Amendt was invited to major-league spring training by the Diamondbacks, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
Day-To-Day

St. Louis Cardinals

S
Sem Robberse
(SP) day-to-day — Robberse (elbow) has been sent to the Cardinals' Florida Complex League affiliate to begin a rehab assignment.
Day-To-Day
R
Ryan Fernandez
(RP) 15-day IL — Fernandez (back) is on track to begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Memphis on Friday, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Ramon Urias
(3B) 60-day IL — Urias (elbow) returned to St. Louis to undergo an examination on his left elbow, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Packy Naughton
(RP) day-to-day — Naughton will undergo surgery next month to repair the damaged UCL in his left elbow, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Day-To-Day
V
Victor Santos
(RP) day-to-day — The Red Sox traded Santos (undisclosed) and Nick Robertson to the Cardinals on Friday in exchange for Tyler O'Neill (foot), Alex Speier of The Boston Globe reports.
Day-To-Day
I
Ixan Henderson
(SP) day-to-day — Henderson (elbow) is starting the season on the 60-day injured list at Triple-A Memphis.
Day-To-Day
Z
Zack Thompson
(RP) day-to-day — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (280)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Michael Soroka 15-Day-IL
Jordan Lawlar 10-Day-IL
Sem Robberse Day-To-Day
Ryan Fernandez 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals

+6.3 EV
per $100 wagered
St. Louis Cardinals 56% Lean
"Over 8.5: Bayesian fusion shows 65.2% probability vs 50% market — a +15.2pp edge in a game the model projects for 22.5 runs"
51% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 51%
Book Implied 59%
Edge -7.7%
Line Movement
Current Spread -2.2, Total 8.5, ML Home -143 / Away +122
Movement No significant line movement detected.
No situational flags detected
Negative EV on home moneyline — market overpricing home. Away side shows +7.6pp edge but at +122 odds the EV is marginal. Spread and total offer better value.
FULL ANALYSIS
The market has this game pegged as a low-scoring pitcher's duel (total 8.5, home -143), but the OMEGA model sees a 22.5-run slugfest — a 14-point discrepancy that screams mispricing. Bayesian fusion gives the over a 65.2% probability vs 50% market, a +15.2pp edge. Sharp money and $120K in whale volume both favor the Cardinals on the spread, suggesting the market is shading toward a home blowout. The over is the strongest signal, but with no pitcher data and historically poor total performance, confidence is tempered. The away moneyline (+122) offers a contrarian play against a juiced home favorite.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge 14.3% on spread favoring home, with strong signal. Whale volume $120K+ (EXTREME tier) also on home. Prediction markets diverge 5.5% toward away, creating a contrarian confluence: sharps and whales on home, prediction markets on away.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD St. Louis Cardinals -2.2
+6.3 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Arizona Diamondbacks None
+2.1 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.5
+15.2 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Arizona Diamondbacks 122
  • Bayesian posterior shows 48.8% away win probability vs market 41.1% — a +7.6pp edge on the away moneyline
SPREAD PICK
○ 56%
St. Louis Cardinals -2.2
  • Bayesian posterior shows 56.3% away cover probability vs market 50% — a +6.3pp edge on the spread side
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
OVER 8.5
  • Bayesian posterior shows 65.2% over probability vs market 50% — a massive +15.2pp edge on the over
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Diamondbacks +122: market overpricing home by 7.8pp — our model sees a coin flip at 51.4% win probability, creating +8.2 EV. Over 8.5: Poisson projects 22.5 runs, Monte Carlo averages 20.5 — +15.2pp edge on the over.
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