MLS
Philadelphia Union
Union
Orlando City SC
SC
Whale Activity Detected
$150713 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Strong home consensus (91% of whale volume).
Whales: home
Polymarket: 106 trades
Largest: $10400
Ω OMEGA LINE
OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
7.5
Edge: +5.0
Win Prob
41.7%
ML
140 / -140
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAPhiladelphia Union
Orlando City SC
ELO Model Lines
MODELSpread
-0.4
Moneyline
ORL 106
/
PHI -106
Win Probability
49%
-
51%
ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Union @ Orlando City SC
+2.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Orlando City SC
60%
Lean
"ORL +200 ML +5.6pp Bayesian edge + $107k extreme whales home, over 2.5 +14.9pp (64.9% posterior) on 6.4-7.5 model totals"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
39%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
-11.1%
Line Movement
Current
PHI -0.5 (ORL +0.5 -155 / PHI -0.5 +110) | ML ORL +200 / PHI -115 | Total 2.5 (-110)
Movement
No significant line movement detected
+EV on ORL ML +200 (posterior 38.9% > 33.3% breakeven); total over +23.9 EV at -110
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion +5.6pp edge ORL ML (38.9% posterior >33.3% implied) confirmed by Omega even ML/home spread edge 0.5pt + extreme $107k whales 90% home. Total mismatch huge: 64.9% over 2.5 posterior vs 50% market (MC 3.2-3.2 exp score). Low vig amplifies ORL ML/spread EV; data degraded reduce conf.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume $107k (institutional tier) 90% on home + MC high edge confidence even spread
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
62%
Orlando City SC 200
- Bayesian posterior 38.9% vs market 33.3% (+5.6pp edge) + Omega ML home +140 vs market +200
SPREAD PICK
○
60%
Orlando City SC 0.5
- Omega spread 0.0 vs market PHI -0.5 (0.5pt edge home side) + Bayesian home value
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
●
65%
OVER 2.5
- Posterior over 64.9% vs market 50% (+14.9pp edge); Omega/MC project 6.4-7.5 total
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
ORL +200 ML +16.7 EV (38.9% posterior + whales $99k) vs PHI -115; Over 2.5 +23.9 EV (model 7.5 total)
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